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June 26th-July 1st Severe Potential


andyhb

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Honestly surprised they didn't do away with the MDT Risk, believe it actually got expanded a bit... Lots of cloud cover over the outlook area still, should keep insolation relatively minimal. I guess it's possible we could see some adiabatic heating from the pressure rises to produce enough heat to minimize the effects of cloud cover, and therefore still end up with forecast CAPE/Shear combo. EDIT: feel free to correct me of I'm wrong, but I believe that's how adiabatic processes work somewhat...

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Honestly surprised they didn't do away with the MDT Risk, believe it actually got expanded a bit... Lots of cloud cover over the outlook area still, should keep insolation relatively minimal. I guess it's possible we could see some adiabatic heating from the pressure rises to produce enough heat to minimize the effects of cloud cover, and therefore still end up with forecast CAPE/Shear combo. EDIT: feel free to correct me of I'm wrong, but I believe that's how adiabatic processes work somewhat...

The early convection is fading and remember that we are near the annual peak for length of daylight, so we still have several hours to recover. I don't think we'll see widespread extreme instability, but enough heating to coincide with strong kinematic support for at least a few tornadoes. Have to think the outflow boundaries, especially in eastern Nebraska/far western Iowa can be focal points too in addition to the warm front. Liking the SE winds in the Omaha area right now. Numerous dew-points of 72-73+. Patience.
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Honestly surprised they didn't do away with the MDT Risk, believe it actually got expanded a bit... Lots of cloud cover over the outlook area still, should keep insolation relatively minimal. I guess it's possible we could see some adiabatic heating from the pressure rises to produce enough heat to minimize the effects of cloud cover, and therefore still end up with forecast CAPE/Shear combo. EDIT: feel free to correct me of I'm wrong, but I believe that's how adiabatic processes work somewhat...

Just looking from first glance, it was expanded more towards central Nebraska and also expanded south closer to Kansas City. Northern edge maybe a hair further north but not a big change.

The risk today isn't as highly favorable on tornadoes but much more so on severe winds and the large hail. So it makes sense to keep moderate for those at least.

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In Atlantic now.  Low-level clouds are mostly mixing out but there's still some cirrocu to deal with it.  Doesn't seem to be inhibiting heating all that much though.

 

And I really like all the backed low-level flow in central IA.  Mesoanalysis seems to be showing sfc winds not quite as backed as obs shows in reality, and it still has us knocking on 20 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear, so realistically we're probably around 20-25 kts.

 

I'm tempted to drift back west, but much farther west from here is bluffs/the river/Omaha metro, so even initiation is over Omaha or just a bit west, there's nothing we can really do but wait here.

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MD out.  Only 60% probs for watch issuance.

 

mcd1195.gif

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB...WRN INTO CENTRAL
IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291902Z - 292100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO WRN AND CENTRAL IA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...AS MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED AND SHIFTED
EWD...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...AND
STRONG DESTABILIZATION WAS OCCURRING IN A MOIST AIRMASS /UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 7 DEG
C PER KM PER 18Z OAX RAOB/. WHILE THE 18Z OAX AND TOP RAOBS
INDICATED SOME INHIBITION STILL EXISTS...GREATER HEATING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB HAS OCCURRED AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING REMAINS. THIS IS
EVIDENT IN AGITATED/CONGESTED CU FIELD ALONG THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
TRYING TO OCCUR AS NOTED BY WEAK ECHOS ON REGIONAL RADAR IN THE
VICINITY OF BOONE COUNTY NEB.

ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. WITH TIME...AS
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LAID OUT BY INDIVIDUAL
STORMS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2014
 
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A few little showers going now north and west of Fremont.  Still sitting in Atlantic deciding what to do, but I;m pretty unimpressed attm.  Plenty of instability and deep-layer shear for organized clusters and maybe even supercells, but the low levels are messy.  The 18z OAX sounding had a due west wind at 850 mb, and only at 20 or 25 kts.

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Very muddled setup in my opinion. Better shear and outflow boundaries are a bit displaced NW from the juicy obs with solidly backed winds across southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

HRRR runs with the idea of storms firing north along that boundary that's just north of Omaha, but individual storms don't have intense updraft helicities that you'd like to see.

Hanging around near Blair, NE so I have a good crossing into Iowa that's away from the chaser convergence. Also banking on one of these cells eventually going severe, but only time will tell.

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HRRR runs with the idea of storms firing north along that boundary that's just north of Omaha, but individual storms don't have intense updraft helicities that you'd like to see.

 

They really didn't on 6/16 either (not that this setup is anywhere in the league of that one especially mesoscale wise).

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