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Florida Wet Season 2014


smog strangler

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Started last week at 2.57. Ended up with 10.21 for the month. Pretty impressive but September can be like that.

First cold front of the season arrives Saturday night.  Right now NWS is forecasting a low of 56 with upper 70's on Sunday. Finally a break from this humidity. Also pretty much ends the rainy season too.

I wonder if the tropical season is over too.

 

 

That huge monthly rainfall amount at Daytona without a tropical cyclone is amazing stuff!

 

 If we get an actual El Nino, which I think is quite likely (weak to possibly low end moderate), would that make the normally fairly dry winter season in Ocala wetter than average? How did Ocala do in winters such as 2006-7, 2004-5, and 2002-3?

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Started last week at 2.57. Ended up with 10.21 for the month. Pretty impressive but September can be like that.

First cold front of the season arrives Saturday night.  Right now NWS is forecasting a low of 56 with upper 70's on Sunday. Finally a break from this humidity. Also pretty much ends the rainy season too.

I wonder if the tropical season is over too.

 

 

What tropical season? ;)

 

and I get that front too but won't knock off my high temps much. Just a wee bit of humidity. Pretty much washes out by me although I do get into the upper 60's at night which is significant. 

 

50's is huge. Congrats.

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That huge monthly rainfall amount at Daytona without a tropical cyclone is amazing stuff!

 

 If we get an actual El Nino, which I think is quite likely (weak to possibly low end moderate), would that make the normally fairly dry winter season in Ocala wetter than average? How did Ocala do in winters such as 2006-7, 2004-5, and 2002-3?

Usually it makes it wetter but it all depends where you're at. The squall lines that come through the area associated with the fronts tend to spit as they approach the gulf coast. Not sure why this happens but if you are in the  geographical area where those splits occur your rain totals would be lower then surrounding areas.

Don't have data from 02-03 but 04-05 was below average and 06-07 was about average.

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Hopefully later next week when the trough develops over the EC we can get some good storms to roll through. Looks like there should be enough CAPE and Shear for a squall line to develop and move through. Maybe the amounts GFS,Euro are showing are likely underdone since it will be a large trough. Since the rain stopped a couple weeks ago the lake levels are dropping already.

 

Agree Ocala,  Yesterday was miserable and looks like a repeat today. Coming back from Eustis yesterday the car thermometer was showing 95 coming down 441.

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ocala must have racked it up today / last night. Plus the Browns over the Steelers. Double down win?

Browns= :thumbsup::) :) :D:lol:

So far .50 in the bucket. I'll take that in October.

Still some tropical action that might extend the wet season so we may not be done yet.

Just waitin for this front to clear. Man was it humid up here today. Nice weather on tap Thurs thru the weekend.

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Not too good on the rain aspect here. .30" from this trailing cold front.

 

Still a long time out and things could change between now and then. But euro and gfs showing a disturbance in the GOM that gets squashed by a front. ATM could be a timing issue. But through early Nov the only slight slight chance of rain for parts of FL may come around 10-22 and 10-23.

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Not too good on the rain aspect here. .30" from this trailing cold front.

 

Still a long time out and things could change between now and then. But euro and gfs showing a disturbance in the GOM that gets squashed by a front. ATM could be a timing issue. But through early Nov the only slight slight chance of rain for parts of FL may come around 10-22 and 10-23.

Looks like right now the GFS has that disturbance going across the southern peninsula.

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Looks like right now the GFS has that disturbance going across the southern peninsula.

Yeah looking at the RH fields most of that should remain south of Lake Okeechobee focused across Miami and the keys and the glades.

 

 

Honestly that would be nice too see. But GFS is really bullish on the strength and amounts. Euro does have this system as well but to a lesser extent. Guess its a wait and see still 11 days out and that tropical wave that is in question is more or less going to be assoicated with the storminess in the BOC right now.

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