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Severe parameters for 6/18/2014 - NYC


Mikehobbyst

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If we get some good storms tonight, won't that effect tomorrow's potential?

 

 

Perhaps, but not necessarily. If the atmosphere recovers, if can actually make tomorrow's potential more significant, due to higher surface dewpoints from the departing storms tonight. But there can be the issue of the atmosphere not completely recovering and then we'd get capped from the EML. EMLs greatly increase the potential ceiling for convection, but they also increase the odds of capping. 

 

I do think there will be enough forcing to break any cap tomorrow, so I'm not too worried about tonight's storms affecting tomorrow's potential. 

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No one is discussing EXACT motions here, but general ideas. And if you want proof of things, you should be willing to back up your own claim of the 99% number, right? You pick some odd nitpicky sh*t to get completely soap boxy about.

I didn't know personal attacks were allowed here  - also here is a recent post a few up from here from Dssnowx53 a Met supporting me

 

"Excellent post, Tom. Large MCS's generally (but not always) move just south of due east, due to the synoptic patterns that set them up." 

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fiqure you would come in to join the attack - no surprise - also here is a recent post a few up from here from Dssnowx53 a Met supporting me

"Excellent post, Tom. Large MCS's generally (but not always) move just south of due east, due to the synoptic patterns that set them up."

So no, you cant back up your 99% claim? Didnt think so. Carry on ranting about ese vs se.

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We have a rare combination today of decent shear and instability leading to excellent bulk Richardson numbers mostly in the 30-45 range which is optimal for supercells.

 

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gotta say away from the coast some nice storms preferably supercells as you said may impact the area. tomorrow still remains the biggest question mark however....

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Upton AFD

 

PLENTY OF FORCING ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED. FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE OCCURRING UPSTREAM. MODELS STILL
INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER MODERATE MLCAPES AND SHOWALTER
INDEX VALUES 0 TO -3C. UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM
NW TO SE...LIKELY APPROACHING NW ZONES AFTER 2-3Z. DEPENDING ON
HOW WELL ACTIVITY MAINTAINS IT/S COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...COULD BE
LOOKING AT A FEW STRONGER STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA...LIKELY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREAT NW OF NYC AND
FOR STRONG WINDS.

 

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