BxEngine Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Thats a big spread for basically 12-24 hrs time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Thats a big spread for basically 12-24 hrs time. The 06z NAM was almost completely dry. Nuff said. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yanks this is the NAM we are talking about so i am using extreme caution right now until it can gain more support from other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yanks this is the NAM we are talking about so i am using extreme caution right now until it can gain more support from other models The 00z Euro has it, what more do you need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The 00z Euro has it, what more do you need? The models suck with regards to convection so I need alot more. HRRR support would be helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The models suck with regards to convection so I need alot more. HRRR support would be helpful HRRR that has been a pretty damn good model for convection! And yanks i know the EURO has this as well but not as robust as the NAM, was more referring to the strength that NAM had compared to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 HRRR that has been a pretty damn good model for convection! And yanks i know the EURO has this as well but not as robust as the NAM, was more referring to the strength that NAM had compared to the EURO The HRRR won't be in range until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 so many terrible posts in this thread by the usual suspect. if you think this sounding will yield convection here i'm embarrassed for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 so many terrible posts in this thread by the usual suspect. if you think this sounding will yield convection here i'm embarrassed for you Nobody is saying here that we're going to see severe weather, but we have a good shot at seeing heavy rain from a decaying MCS. You can add the 12z GGEM to the list of models which bring us significant rain. The GGEM is 1"+ area wide outside of LI which is 0.75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Any convection for us is probably going to wait until later on tonight or the first half of tomorrow as the boundary begins to shift to the north again. Atmosphere is way too stable now from 40N northward for any widespread convection through this afternoon and evening. Best thermodynamic parameters are in the mid atlantic, and the best juxtaposition of kinematic + thermo parameters are over the lower Lakes and OH valley. MUCAPE values generally < 1000 J/KG areawide right now with LI's less than -4. The atmospheric is pretty solidly capped at this point as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Any convection for us is probably going to wait until later on tonight or the first half of tomorrow as the boundary begins to shift to the north again. Atmosphere is way too stable now from 40N northward for any widespread convection through this afternoon and evening. Best thermodynamic parameters are in the mid atlantic, and the best juxtaposition of kinematic + thermo parameters are over the lower Lakes and OH valley. MUCAPE values generally < 1000 J/KG areawide right now with LI's less than -4. The atmospheric is pretty solidly capped at this point as well. Forgot to mention wind shear sucks right now as well. Bulk effective shear of > 30 kts is confined the OH Valley/Lakes. So we don't have the impressive wind fields or instability at this point. Parameters in terms of kinematics will improve by later tonight and tomorrow morning but instability will be lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Forgot to mention wind shear sucks right now as well. Bulk effective shear of > 30 kts is confined the OH Valley/Lakes. So we don't have the impressive wind fields or instability at this point. Parameters in terms of kinematics will improve by later tonight and tomorrow morning but instability will be lacking. The good shear profiles will move in later. They aren't that bad currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Speaking non-meteorologically for a second, if one were to simply extrapolate the current complex over the Lakes toward our region at a forward speed of approximately 40-50mph, that would yield an arrival time of 2am-5am tonight. That's of course assuming the complex over MI holds together and it maintains its current direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The timing on the Euro is such that the first complex comes through between 06z and 12z and a second complex swings through after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 18z HRRR says 3AM Nice little localized surge in SBCAPE as well as the front comes north late. Not sure how much sense it makes but you can see a surge in dew points around the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Numerous scattered thunderstorms now building in front of the main line. Hopefully something can get here before dying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Looks like the cap is finally starting to erode. Hence the new storm formation in western PA/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 The first storms are almost to State College. Will be there within the hour. Looks like we should be in business around 1AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 The first storms are almost to State College. Will be there within the hour. Looks like we should be in business around 1AM. those storms are not going to make it to the immediate metro if they even hold together before 2 - 4 am which is still the wildcard - what happens as they cross the apps http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=CCX 164 FXUS61 KOKX 190129 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 929 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/ NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY NYC AND EAST AND EAST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WEST OF THERE INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL WITH LITTLE SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE...WHICH DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT AS CINS DOMINATES. SO HAVE REMOVED CHANCES OF THUNDER EAST AND KEPT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WEST TO ABOUT 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Severe thunderstorm watch for most of central PA..not too often we see those issued for the overnight period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 next time don't fall for modeled mcs events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 99.9% of the time it never pans out..I doubt we see much more then some isolated boomers Nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 next time don't fall for modeled mcs events Living on LI i dont fall for a garden variety thunderstorm forky. Im literallt grasping at straws with convection here. I have a middle finger to the atmosphere during the summer pretty much from my house Also last summer some of our best storms came when we werent advertised for these widespread severe weather events, go figure..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Living on LI i dont fall for a garden variety thunderstorm forky. Im literallt grasping at straws with convection here. I have a middle finger to the atmosphere during the summer pretty much from my house Also last summer some of our best storms came when we werent advertised for these widespread severe weather events, go figure..... I honestly don't remember receiving one thunderstorm last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Another bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 I honestly don't remember receiving one thunderstorm last summer. this... I had better convection in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 this... I had better convection in winter Lol also this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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