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June 5th MCS/Convection Discussion


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Looks like we clear out for sunshine this afternoon... Rain events for the most part have underperformed this Spring, in regards to model output and support. Something to consider especially now that we are heading into convective season where precip is generally more localized. Interpreting 1"+ QPF is usually not a region wide event during the warmer season, that is outside of tropical connections or deep Gulf/Atlantic inflow. This system hardly had that going for it to support what was modeled.

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I am not sold on the entire metro seeing rainfall over 1 inch on this - as that wxbell map ( copyrighted ?) shows the heavier rain is concentrated across parts of northern NJ

well down here just west of SI we haven't seen much at all - anyone going to get over an inch ? The radar is not impressive at all

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

 

Newark NJ has seen close to 1/2 inch qpf

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2014/6/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

this mainly non - event should be outa here by noon and some clearing should take place sometime this afternoon especially the further west you are

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12

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What about the 12z ECMWF and then the 18z GFS jumped on board too. Really all models were in fairly good agreement going into last night.

like I was saying yesterday the reports from Ohio in the afternoon were not impressive at all this was an indication to me that this was not going to be anything spectacular here - the models have fooled us before

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It's abosulutely pouring here. Far from pedestrian. Picked up 0.70" so far at home and 0.74" at work in Ramsey with a little more to come.

and as I mentioned yesterday there was going to be a wide range of totals - but for most of the area it has been a "pedestrian event"

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.24" with backend about to pull through.

 

Also, FWIW, 1" is still fairly pedestrian... we don't live in Vegas.

Up to 0.98" her with a few more drops to fall, a majority of which fell after in a 90 minute period between 7:30 and 9:00 which is fairly substantial. There was potential to get much more than that but unfortunately the models let us down when they bumped up totals yesterday. It looks like my area came in second place with parts of the LHV seeing almost 2" in spots.

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