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The official 2014 Summer Discussion Thread

Marion_NC_WX

By Marion_NC_WX,
in Southeastern States

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Looks like an extended period of dry and hot weather for central and eastern NC. Western piedmont and the usual sea breeze area south and east will be the favored spots for rain. For the rest of us in the middle, more rainless days are on tap...at least until a cold front swings through later in the week, keeping both the best energy to the north and the tropical system off the coast, leading to, well, more dryness. Oh well.... :Shrug:

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH still looking for a cool(er) air mass to settle over the region for Friday. Lows Friday night in the 50s for north NC. Amazing for this time of year.  

 

<from afternoon discussion>

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WITH LINGERING PRECIP
IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...THE WELCOME CHANGE OF AIRMASS
WILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
50S...ALLOWING MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Speaking of RAH, what a lame near-term discussion, given such a strong trough and an incoming tropical system.  On the other hand, the actual weather will probably turn out pretty lame around here, as it usually does lately:

 

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE WEST
WILL INCREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT ROTATES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL BE MILD IN THE MOIST AIRMASS...IN
THE LOWER 70S.

IN THE MEANTIME...TS ARTHUR WILL BE RECURVING AND PARALLELING THE
COAST...ARRIVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE
IT WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

INITIAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE FRONT IN
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
FROM TS ARTHUR SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...WILL BE INCREASING THE INITIAL CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON...CONCURRENT WITH INTRODUCTION OF 50-60
PERCENT POPS IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY HEAVIER
CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH 90 GIVEN ANY SUN AT
ALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MERGING WITH
ARTHUR THURSDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AS IT
IS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROF. AS SUCH...LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF I-95 OVERNIGHT...WITH POPS IN THE
WEST TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY MORNING. BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...INITIAL DRYING IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW MINS TO FALL TO
THE MID 60S...WHILE THE EAST WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WITH LINGERING PRECIP
IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...THE WELCOME CHANGE OF AIRMASS
WILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
50S...ALLOWING MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

 

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

And still nothing as of 11:30 PM

AS OF 912 PM WEDNESDAY...00Z GSO SOUNDING A LITTLE CONCERNING THIS EVENING...DEPICTING DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/EVENING (JUST SHY OF 7 DEG C/KM). LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. FINALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIFTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES. 
THUS...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD BE OF LESS INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES THANKS TO NOCTURNAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. -WSS
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WxJordan

WxJordan

Posted
Posted

Ok, I have a new personal goals since I now have a new job which means more time for me to keep my website updated. My goals are to post at least three articles to the website weekly and post more information on AmericanWx. So, here is what I see for this upcoming week....

 

1. Convection off the southeast coast will move near the North/South Carolina boarder. The NHC gives this area a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours, and I do not expect this storm to develop before moving northward. A few showers and storms are possible in far eastern zones of NC on Monday, but I am not expecting widespread rain.

2. Heat will be on the increase, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to near 100 outside the mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be hot once again the southeast. (Ole boy, that means the grass will continue to get drier).

3. A front will bring a good chance of rain for the second half of the work week. The best chance will be on Thursday across most areas of NC, SC, and GA. I expect a 40-50% chance for most areas west of I-95, and even areas east of I-95 I am expecting a 30-40% chance of storms. I am hoping to receive some rain soon, as many areas have not received substantial rain outside the mountains and coastal plain. Over the weekend, the GFS has a trough pattern over the eastern seaboard, which may help to fuel an MCS. Other than that, normal summertime weather in the southeast.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Hope some of that rain finds me!  But I'm not holding my breath.  The drought is back in full swing here.  I've had less than an inch over the last 5, and maybe 6 weeks.  I've had neighbors a few tenths of a mile away get inches while I got drops.  Need something wide spread, and not just this danged heat with showers working hard to miss me.  I'm looking forward to the fall dry months when I might actually see some rain :)  T

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

Hope some of that rain finds me! But I'm not holding my breath. The drought is back in full swing here. I've had less than an inch over the last 5, and maybe 6 weeks. I've had neighbors a few tenths of a mile away get inches while I got drops. Need something wide spread, and not just this danged heat with showers working hard to miss me. I'm looking forward to the fall dry months when I might actually see some rain :) T

A tropical storm coming north out of the gulf would sure be nice right about now. A widespread 3-6" soaker is what we need. Which reminds me.... This month is the 20 year anniversary of TS Alberto.
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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

A tropical storm coming north out of the gulf would sure be nice right about now. A widespread 3-6" soaker is what we need. Which reminds me.... This month is the 20 year anniversary of TS Alberto.

This year is also the 126th anniversary of TS Eliot.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Nope   ;)   That would be Sept 21/22   :wub:

 

 

Looks wet the next two days, hopefully?

If quick math serves, this is the 25th anniversary of Hugo.

 

Ooooo!  Quick math fail!  Haha!

 

On another note, it looks like a decent pattern setting in Sundayish on, which would provide more opportunities for daily t-storms.  Also, looks not as hot.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Yep, that 3 years of geometry really paid off! :)

 

NIce!  It helped me too.  I had to cosign a document this morning to help me angle for a promotion. :)

 

On another note, if anyone has a midsummer night's dream of winter, here's something to read:

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/06/preliminary-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

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