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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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0Z GFS is still showing a tropical system making landfall on the Fla panhandle later in the period then exiting  off the NC coast also the blocking/trough is starting to break down allowing the heat from the west expand into the area around the same time

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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Will lose interest if it fails to show up on subsequent runs. Hurricane Amanda's impressive run in the EPAC last week was unprecedented and I will not write anything off at this point. Sorry about the exaggerated rhetoric, Sandy was the only analog that came to mind but I am sure there are others.

 

These two events and patterns are indeed very dissimilar and occuring at different times of the year. Looks like a "lucky" timing with the progression, not even a semi-permanent -NAO is present on the GFS.

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0Z Monday GFS has the tropical system with landfall on the central FLA GOM coast later in the 10 day period

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

 

Very Good chance IMO that something is going to develop down in the southern GOM in the coming days 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

 

NHC has low chance of formation southern gulf next 48 hours

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Should know by default that intensity is impossible to predict this far out. I think the Euro was the only model to forecast the proper intensity of Sandy 5 days out.

 

The Canadian model nailed the intensity and landfall location perfectly 144 hours out.

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  • 4 weeks later...

chance of tropical development off the southeast coast next week

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

8 P.M. Tropical Update

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000

ABNT20 KNHC 282330

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southeast

of the coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized

showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected

to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while

it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida

during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter

aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon,

if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$

Forecaster Brennan

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8 a.m 6/29 update

 

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291132
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located about 230 miles east of Jacksonville,
Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
as it moves slowly southward. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbance
could inhibit formation of a tropical cyclone over the next couple
of days. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development of this system
while it drifts southward and meanders offshore of the Florida east
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$
Forecaster Stewart
 

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well offshore with minimal impact

actually could be a high impact event  up and down the east coast along the beaches and coastal waters for swimmers and boaters on a crowded July 4th weekend if the storm strengthens as it moves north --- BIG IF at this point though......

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actually could be a high impact event up and down the east coast along the beaches and coastal waters for swimmers and boaters on a crowded July 4th weekend if the storm strengthens as it moves north --- BIG IF at this point though......

Agreed, anything that could increase the surf and most notably the rip currents during the busiest beach weekend of the year will be a problem. It's a well defined low, so it could be interesting to see if it can really strengthen.

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The 12z Euro has a 987mb low hooking right,,after a close pass to Cape Hatteras, next weekend. The models consensus is well to south and east, despite how much it develops. It would mean very little impact here, other than some rough surf.

why would you think rough surf from a potential offshore hurricane  with packed beaches and more then the usual number of boats in the coastal waters on July 4th weekend would yield a very little impact scenario ? 

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