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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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Parts of the Atlantic city boardwalk was distroyed, not all of it

Where? I'm guessing up in the very north end where it was already falling apart? The bridge between Brigantine and Atlantic City was also destroyed during 38'. Talking to my family that live in Pomona and Egg Harbor Township, Sandy was very underwhelming down that way. Partly because most of the weaker trees had been destroyed the year before during the derecho.

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I guess it's all relative. 38' today would likely do more damage locally than what Sandy did to the hardest hit areas. Sandy obviously hit a much larger total area. 38' was also more intact. Down near Cape May where the center of Sandy actually came on shore, the winds were much less severe than 150 miles to the north.

The west side of the 1938 hurricane was nowhere near as intense as the east side. I read somewhere that winds may have gusted to 90-100 mph in and around NYC, and there was surge but not a huge surge, since winds were offshore. Winds didn't really get well over 100 mph unless you were near the William Floyd Parkway and east. Also, while eastern Suffolk has increased greatly in population, it still would be less overall damage than the worst impacts from Sandy over urban areas. Not many people would shed a lot of tears for damaged Hamptons mansions. The worst-damaged area would be Rhode Island and Providence from surge. NYC and NJ would have a lot of damage from waves, wind damage and the heavy rain on the west side, but surge would be comparatively uneventful.

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Where? I'm guessing up in the very north end where it was already falling apart? The bridge between Brigantine and Atlantic City was also destroyed during 38'. Talking to my family that live in Pomona and Egg Harbor Township, Sandy was very underwhelming down that way. Partly because most of the weaker trees had been destroyed the year before during the derecho.

Sandy was also heavily favored in terms of wind on the northeast side. I was much further from the center but the winds/surge were devastating up this way.

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The west side of the 1938 hurricane was nowhere near as intense as the east side. I read somewhere that winds may have gusted to 90-100 mph in and around NYC, and there was surge but not a huge surge, since winds were offshore. Winds didn't really get well over 100 mph unless you were near the William Floyd Parkway and east. Also, while eastern Suffolk has increased greatly in population, it still would be less overall damage than the worst impacts from Sandy over urban areas. Not many people would shed a lot of tears for damaged Hamptons mansions. The worst-damaged area would be Rhode Island and Providence from surge. NYC and NJ would have a lot of damage from waves, wind damage and the heavy rain on the west side, but surge would be comparatively uneventful.

The biggest killer in 38' was from the storm surge on Long Island and coastal New Englad. I'm not sure how you can say the cost of damage would be less. Just because it might cause less damage in NYC proper has no bearing on the amount of overall property damage. Providence was completely flooded in 38'. The damage today would be right up there with Sandy if not more severe.

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The biggest killer in 38' was from the storm surge on Long Island and coastal New Englad. I'm not sure how you can say the cost of damage would be less. Just because it might cause less damage in NYC proper has no bearing on the amount of overall property damage. Providence was completely flooded in 38'. The damage today would be right up there with Sandy if not more severe.

It's estimated that another 1938 hurricane would cost approximately $40 billion using current population and 2010 dollars. Providence is a major population center but still pales in comparison to NYC. The major population centers around NYC would also be on the weaker west side of the storm.

 

http://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome

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People tend to forget that Sandy was all about timing as well. The worst surge coincided with high tide which was also unnaturally high at the time due to astronomical impact. There are so many factors to consider with these things that its tough to just compare a Sandy vs. '38 redux.

Yes astronomical high tide was a factor is the huge surge but to me it's all about track and size of the storm. The 38' storm made landfall so far east on LI that Sandy would still trump (at least in out area) a similar storm that made landfall in the same location today.

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We're also far more likely to see another 38 before we see another Sandy.

How do you mean? I believe the two events were relatively similar with regard to storm structure (obviously '38 was more potent and tightly wound) and environmental steering currents. Would a broad, ET-transitioning Cat 1 into eastern LI be more like '38 or Sandy? 

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How do you mean? I believe the two events were relatively similar with regard to storm structure (obviously '38 was more potent and tightly wound) and environmental steering currents. Would a broad, ET-transitioning Cat 1 into eastern LI be more like '38 or Sandy? 

 

As far as we can tell, 1938 was a 100% bonafide hurricane, while Sandy was a 2-in-1 storm.

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As far as we can tell, 1938 was a 100% bonafide hurricane, while Sandy was a 2-in-1 storm.

Well, it certainly would have been acquiring extratropical characteristics. Even so... given that it's harder for a system to maintain a deep symmetrical warm core at these latitudes, it should be somewhat easier to see another Sandy-like system.

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