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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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Jim cantore thinks a sandy hook type is possible along with a florida hit.

Going to go from strongly negative NAO to neutral which often indicates coastal storm though I'm not sure about this one. Oddly enough the Euro is much further west and the gfs recurves this quickly just like it showed during Sandy.

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Jim cantore thinks a sandy hook type is possible along with a florida hit.

a Sandy scenario in late August during a major holiday weekend would have a much larger impact anywhere along the east coast for obvious reasons - the 6Z GFS FWIW (probably nothing) takes the storm up through FLA and right up along the coast to our area

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us.html

 

BTW here is the lineup of names for this season and the next several

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

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have to be concerned about the strongly negative NAO pattern we are in right now - that is the reason some folks are worried this will be directed into the east coast as it gains lattitude

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

 

add to this an approaching trough as the hurricane is making its way north - where have we seen this entire scenario before ?

12z Hurricane models. All over the place.
25zpjwm.png

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i'll be interested when the best model shows something other than a complete miss

f144.gif

Im right with you. The ECMWF has been stellar with tropical systems and if its a complete miss right now they're is no reason to hype this up. IF it does start showing landfall near our area as something more than a tropical storm than it should peak interest. Until then its just another tropical cyclone in the atlantic.....

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UKMET is/was farthest west with this for Wed/Thurs.    Trend for last 4 days has been eastward, from a hit in GOM @ LA. and then up north (but way west of Applachians) to way OTS even before reaching Cape Hatteras.  Northern FL. has best chances for anything I think.

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It's unlkely to observe a Sandy-esque scenario this early in the year. 0z Euro was close to a Carolinas landfall, the cold front trended north/weaker. It will be challenging for this to impact the East Coast directly. Decent chance of remnants or left hook into the Carolinas.

 

A few storms with the left hook, backbuilding North Atlantic ridge scenario.

 

Hurricane Doria (1967)

220px-Doria_1967_track.png

 

San Ciriaco Hurricane (1899)

220px-1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane_track.p

 

Hurricane Connie (1955)

220px-Connie_1955_track.png

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Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the Atlantic and Euro Ensembles are further west

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/233630.shtml?tswind120#contents

Cristobal will be a fish, models are increasingly favoring a N then NE track. Looks pretty cut and dry. Some higher surf for a couple of days and that's it.

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The ridge building over the East is keeping it away. There's no high latitude blocking this week either.

the NAO is currently negative 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

 

the NAO forecast is for it to weaken then gain strength the last few days of August

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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Why is it still drifting around, should be moving north now.

It helps to read a forecast discussion every so often to understand why, rather than speculate:

 

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion 

WTNT44 KNHC 251455TCDAT4TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL0420141100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014Cristobal remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-levelcenter fully exposed on the north side of the deep convective cloudmass. Earlier reconnaissance data indicated maximum 850 mbflight-level winds of 61 kt in the southeast quadrant where SFMRwinds of near 50 kt were observed. Therefore, the initial intensityhas been increased to 50 kt. A NOAA aircraft reported a centralpressure of 996 mb, but the dropsonde also reported a 33-kt surfacewind. As a result, the central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb.Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is moving erraticallynorth-northeastward or 015/02 kt. Strong northerly shear has beenimpeding the forward motion of Cristobal for the past several hoursby keeping the deep convection displaced to the south of the center,and this is expected to continue through today. On Tuesday, however,a deep trough just of the U.S. east coast is forecast to captureCristobal and gradually lift out the cyclone to the northeast whilethe Bermuda-Azores ridge builds westward to the south of the system.The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on this developingscenario with only minor differences in forward speed. The officialtrack forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and liesclose to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.The GFS-based SHIPS model indicates northerly shear of 23 kt hasbeen affecting Cristobal. The shear is forecast to gradually subsideto around 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours, during which time someslight strengthening could occur. However, by 48-72 hours, the shearis forecast to decrease more significantly, allowing Cristobal tostrengthen further, becoming a hurricane as the cyclone passes tothe west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. On Days 4and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters andencountering strong southwesterly wind shear as the cyclone becomesembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result inextratropical transition by 120 hours.Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possibleflooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and theTurks and Caicos through Tuesday.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  25/1500Z 24.6N  72.7W   50 KT  60 MPH 12H  26/0000Z 26.0N  72.2W   50 KT  60 MPH 24H  26/1200Z 27.8N  71.5W   55 KT  65 MPH 36H  27/0000Z 30.0N  70.9W   60 KT  70 MPH 48H  27/1200Z 32.2N  69.7W   65 KT  75 MPH 72H  28/1200Z 36.5N  63.5W   65 KT  75 MPH 96H  29/1200Z 42.7N  50.1W   65 KT  75 MPH120H  30/1200Z 49.5N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Stewart
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Christobal looks set to send another nice shot swell to the area beaches. In conjunction with the hot sunny weather tomorrow its going to be a busy rescue day for me at Jones Beach tomorrow!!!

 

Although the hurricane season has been fairly crappy overall its been pure luck for East coast surfers as each storm has delivered great waves.

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