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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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Nhc says the system is becoming better organized and a td should form later today or tomorrow. They rescheduled the recon flight that was scheduled for today. It's now scheduled for tomorrow morning if necessary!!!

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FWIW, it's a good bit west of the 0z run. Doesn't mean much because of how far out we are right now though, and run to run fluctuations can be expected.

The track is very uncertain right now. Large spread the next 72 hours. After that it will come down to the amplitude and timing of the trough. If it slows down it could suck the system due north.
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My guess is this gives us 2-4" of rain and at least one day next weekend is a total washout.

there is a first for everything in weather and a July 4th weekend hurricane close to the east coast would be one - there is talk by certain unnamed Mets that the potential is there for this to develop into a minimal Cat 1 Hurricane as it moves north - hopefully the track will be far enough off the coast to avoid major problems - I would put the risk of anything more then rough surf - some beaches closed as minimal right now BUT the impact regardless still has a better chance of being high for anyone on the beach or trying to navigate   the  coastal waters  ......

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Nothing beyond 9 or 10 am

the point I was making is the 12Z GFS cut off the precip at 12Z Friday and now the 18Z cuts it off at 15Z Friday with lingering cloud cover till the evening hours the trend has been to extend the precip - also the Euro now has some support from the GFS for this storm - there are going to be problems for beach goers and boaters July 4th weekend  in the mid atlantic if this verifies and especially if it becomes stronger and moves further west its a 997 now on this GFS panel - also have to watch the pressure gradient and wind between the storm and that HP coming in - can't be too windy for fireworks my town is scheduled to have their fireworks display on the the Arthur Kill waterway Thursday - that doesn't look promising and the reschedule date is July 5th and if its too windy that doesn't look promising either 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png

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the point I was making is the 12Z GFS cut off the precip at 12Z Friday and now the 18Z cuts it off at 15Z Friday with lingering cloud cover till the evening hours the trend has been to extend the precip - also the Euro now has some support from the GFS for this storm - there are going to be problems for beach goers and boaters July 4th weekend  in the mid atlantic if this verifies and especially if it becomes stronger and moves further west its a 997 now on this GFS panel - also have to watch the pressure gradient and wind between the storm and that HP coming in - can't be too windy for fireworks

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png

At 00z on July 5th (Evening of July 4th) the tropical low is centered just NE of OBX with rain as far north as Philly and Sandy Hook. It won't take much more to bring measurable precip into NYC.

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I have a question when and if  this storm is officially named are we going to keep the discussion here or do you guys want to create individual storm threads this season - then when the storms pass discuss potential storms in here again ?

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I have a question when and if  this storm is officially named are we going to keep the discussion here or do you guys want to create individual storm threads this season - then when the storms pass discuss potential storms in here again ?

My suggestion would be to create new threads for every storm, but that's just me. Hopefully a moderator will chime in soon so we can get their opinion.

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My suggestion would be to create new threads for every storm, but that's just me. Hopefully a moderator will chime in soon so we can get their opinion.

I agree with that just like we do in the winter individual storm threads - then bring the general tropical  discussion back in here after the storm

 

 

*** Also here is the 18Z GFS at Toms River NJ - not exactly a beach weekend very wet 4th and also Saturday with heavy rainfall amounts***

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMJX

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I have a question when and if  this storm is officially named are we going to keep the discussion here or do you guys want to create individual storm threads this season - then when the storms pass discuss potential storms in here again ?

We'll keep it in here.  If a storm becomes a potential threat to our area, we'll give it it's own thread.

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Way too many moving parts with this one to make any guarantees at this juncture. The vorticity in the Southeast States and movement of the northern stream trough over the Great Lakes/OV are both wild cards -- as is the initial westward drift of the system. Certainly interesting. 

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Track error in this time frame on models is significant. I'm not leaning in any direction yet. There's not even a TD designation yet and the center may end up in a different spot from where the models have it....or it may not even develop at all.

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