Chinook Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 There were several ASOS locations with 80-82 dew points today. Madison SD had a dew point of 81 for several hours. Valley City ND is currently 82/82 (100% relative humidity). Yuck. Offutt Air Force Base (Omaha) has a dew point of 84. This is one of the most impressive days for dew points that I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 just was looking at the 00Z soundings. and I have to admit, the cap is what I expected in ABR. but for here in the twin cities, that's a much smaller lid than I was thinking. looks like it might get a bit more interesting than I originally thought. but that gust at 57kt at GFK is impressive. the windbag storms are on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 113 knot delta-v west of Crookston MN, tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 113 knot delta-v west of Crookston MN, tornado warning 2014_07_22_0157z_MVX_tornado_warning.png Yeah, I saw 120+ kt bins on the right flank of that. The 80+ kt velocities extended out by ~2 miles. I saw a report of a funnel cloud, but it hardly matters if a tornado touched down or not. There had to be close to EF1 winds reaching the surface. Will have to check back and see if a storm survey is completed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Insane tornado parameters in place across eastern SD right now... I have never seen such high values before. I believe that they are capped, but some of the southernmost storms in the MCS are building into this zone with what may be extreme severe weather potential. There's probably something important I'm missing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Insane tornado parameters in place across eastern SD right now... I have never seen such high values before. I believe that they are capped, but some of the southernmost storms in the MCS are building into this zone with extreme severe weather parameters... They are capped, this is somewhere in the ballpark of what the 6/16 supercell in NE (Pilger) had to work with uncapped, and the results spoke for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Yeah, I saw 120+ kt bins on the right flank of that. The 80+ kt velocities extended out by ~2 miles. I saw a report of a funnel cloud, but it hardly matters if a tornado touched down or not. There had to be close to EF1 winds reaching the surface. Will have to check back and see if a storm survey is completed... There likely were multiple tornadoes in that MCV there, several couplets with what appeared to be TDS'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Insane tornado parameters in place across eastern SD right now... I have never seen such high values before. I believe that they are capped, but some of the southernmost storms in the MCS are building into this zone with what may be extreme severe weather potential. There's probably something important I'm missing though. Yeah 19 is a nifty EHI. I think I saw STP values of 11-13 during the April 27 2011 superoutbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 There likely were multiple tornadoes in that MCV there, several couplets with what appeared to be TDS'. Confirmed. It was a rain-wrapped EF2 on the ground for 27 miles with widespread downbursts. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=103484&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Sadly, my worries about injuries in the BWCA seems to have become a reality. http://www.startribune.com/local/268095901.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 archive of images of the North Dakota-Minnesota derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Interesting severe threat this evening into tomorrow across the SW. There are some similarities to 10/6/10, as the closed low migrates slowly eastward and strong flow aloft overspreads potentially moderate buoyancy. Low level shear also appears sufficient for tornadoes if supercells do develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Not impressed with today's setup. 5% tornado risk in a zone where dew-points are generally in the 50s and the best shear is pushing off north. High res models can't agree on secondary initiation after this initial junk, further indicating how messy/marginal the setup is. Yesterday was also a 5% tornado risk day with only one very brief tornado report. Eastern SD has the strongest shear and proximity to a triple point, but that's where dews are low and instability is expected to be hard to come by. Far eastern Nebraska may have slightly better instability, but somewhat weaker shear and questions about air-mass recovery. Could see a few widely isolated cells in Kansas, but they're displaced from more favorable shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 D2 outlook added strong tornado wording for tomorrow with a 30% risk area (although it's Broyles so take it with a grain of salt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 day 2 30% outlook for Kansas City and Topeka. From the SPC (read the full discussion if you want). --- Day 2 1730z outlook --- FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOPEKA AND EMPORIA KS AT 00Z/THURSDAY SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 TO 60 KT. SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS FORECAST FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 800 MB. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. -- note: this will not affect the wild card baseball game at Kansas City, which is happening tonight. NAM soundings for 21z tomorrow near Topeka have 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE with 45kt winds just at 450mb (leading to 0-6km shear of 45-55 knots in some spots). The dew points are going to be about 68 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 See, the problem is that the NAM has (I feel like I'm saying this for umpteenth time now) an absolutely horrid record this year. With that said, the Euro appears in decent agreement with it on synoptic features (a bit less CAPE) and the SPC SREF is pretty solid for tomorrow evening in/around the 30% zone. Upper 60s/70s dewpoints are generally restricted to the TX Gulf Coast currently so I have my questions whether moisture is going to be as high as the NAM suggests. Excellent discussion from TOP regarding tomorrow. WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY EVENING: THIS PERIOD REMAINS COMPLICATED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BUT A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SEVERE IT WILL BE AND WHERE THE PREFERRED LOCATIONS WILL BE. THE CURRENT THINKING, SUBJECT TO CHANGE, IS THIS: MORNING THUNDERSTORMS, STILL POTENTIALLY EXHIBITING SOME BACKBUILDING AND HEAVY RAIN CHARACTERISTICS WILL CONTINUE BUT SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CLOUDS MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK UP A BIT, BUT THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT IT SEEMS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1500+ J/KG OF CAPE WILL DEVELOP EVEN IF CLOUDS DON'T BREAK UP AS THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BE AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS). IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING, THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM AN ALREADY ELEVATED STATE. A SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON WITH A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH IS LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. A PUNCH OF DRY AIR WILL WRAP SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE AN INTENSE UPPER JET STREAK MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WINDS UP TO 800 HPA WILL BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON, GREATLY INTENSIFYING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY OVER EASTERN KS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NORTHERN KS) BY EVENING. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY DAY CONVECTION MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST, THEY WOULD CERTAINLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR INITIATION AND ENHANCED VORTICITY. WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THE LIKELY STORM MODE IS DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED IN EAST CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM WHILE STILL POSSIBLE ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT WINDOW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN NORTHERN KS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG DEEP SHEAR, A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. INHIBITION WILL INCREASE BY LATE EVENING WITH A DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND THUS DECREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STILL NON-ZERO THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT MORE DEPENDENT UPON TRAINING AS STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Not terribly impressed with tomorrow. Meh low-level wind profiles and so-so mid-level thermodynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Not terribly impressed with tomorrow. Meh low-level wind profiles and so-so mid-level thermodynamics. Have been looking at 00z progs, nothing has the NAM's back aside from the SREF and the SPC WRF brings a line of storms through in the morning over the higher risk areas and then nothing afterwards. Did have some short lived supercells going further south later on though. Speaking broadly, I think it's pretty much a lock for a third straight sub-1000 tornado count year barring the main part of the Fall season going berserk (as in more active than it has essentially ever been). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 They've been kicking the Day 2 out before midnight here lately. Any reason why? I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 over 5" rain at my apartment in lincoln, ne so far, still coming down. Only if it was in the form of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 This radar product is an estimate of how much rain has fallen across parts of the area since yesterday afternoon. Though an estimate, the spotty 8 and 9 inch amounts across Lancaster County and the city of Lincoln have been verified with volunteer observer reports. We will have a break today but then another shot of rainfall will arrive overnight into Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The time-frame with the best shear looks to be 00z-06z, so if we do end up with a few tornadoes, I could see some occurring into the night. This was the 12z Topeka sounding. We'll see how much of this low-level jet we lose and if the mid level thermodynamics improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Stations in southeastern Kansas are reporting 68-69 degree dew-points as of 11 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Those 70 degree dew-points are being realized in far southeastern Kansas with a group of developing cells headed in that direction. SPC 60% probability per MD of watch issuance. Could be issuing a tornado and or severe thunderstorm watch at any moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 So... so so.. not fun. That storm in NE OK is showing rotation on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 SE KS and SW MO looking more and more interesting this evening. What are your thoughts Quincy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 SE KS and SW MO looking more and more interesting this evening. What are your thoughts Quincy?Give it a few hours and I think the environment is very supportive of at least a few tornadoes from SE KS into adjacent W MO. Greatest risk appears to be just NW of I-44 to a bit southeast of I-35. Joplin will be on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Tornado warning for north of Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Def. rotation on storm SW of Coffeyville, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The storm mode up north is a big mess. That discrete cell with a nice hook in far southeastern Kansas will eventually interact with a somewhat more favorable air-mass if it holds itself together for a while longer. It's also on a general trajectory toward near Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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