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2014 Short Term Severe Weather Disco


Chicago Storm

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Closing in on Rapid City. Still not entirely sure where to go today. Probably eastern WY to start? Not sure the 5% is worth fully biting on esp given tomorrow could be eastern NE tho unclear there too. Fun stuff. ;)

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Closing in on Rapid City. Still not entirely sure where to go today. Probably eastern WY to start? Not sure the 5% is worth fully biting on esp given tomorrow could be eastern NE tho unclear there too. Fun stuff. ;)

Eastern Wyoming looks to be the place. 4km NAM keeps showing something firing up there and moving it into the Black Hills area by 00z.

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Eastern Wyoming looks to be the place. 4km NAM keeps showing something firing up there and moving it into the Black Hills area by 00z.

We're in Newcastle now watching the stuff to the west develop before moving in more. Hopefully the best one doesn't run into the heart of the Black Hills.

 

On another note, dews are verifying per model guidance. Lots of high clouds tho.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A


 


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...


  SOUTHWESTERN BOX BUTTE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...


  SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...


 


* UNTIL 715 PM MDT


 


* AT 629 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A


  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF LAKE MINATARE...AND MOVING


  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.


 


  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.


 


  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO ON THE GROUND.


 


  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT


           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE


           TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS


           LIKELY.


 


* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...


  KILPATRICK LAKE AROUND 700 PM MDT.


 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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Days 1-3 are a tough forecast for a chasecation. Two distinct areas are about 800 miles apart; so, hedging in DSM or OMA is not an option. I would barely lean High Plains, but one could make a reasonable argument for the Midwest.

 

High Plains have the best low level turning all 3 days. Midwest has best heating Day 2-3. Arrival of jet stream in Midwest improves speed shear Day 3. Midwest is veered at low levels Day 3, but jet stream level wind direction is greater than 270 - still promoting some directional shear. However Day 3 also looks better on the High Plains, thanks to the front lifting back north as a WF. Tie breaker might be Day 3 terrain, favoring High Plains. If today and Day 3 favor High Plains, Day 2 might be a rest day, national/state park, or perhaps structure on the High Plains. Day 2 looks ever so slightly better Midwest; but, the long drive would keep me High Plains since Day 1 and Day 3 I prefer the High Plains. I will save Day 4-8 for the medium/long range thread a little later.

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We're staying west of course. Tomorrow looks fairly blah and today may be too. But the 500 low has transitioned from dying out to slowly progressing east so no real reason to wander far from the high plains for a while probably. Southern high plains looks decent later in the week. Verbatim might see storms every day for the next 10 tho some days aren't so hot for supercells perhaps.

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lol, congrats... but you could work on taking your blessings with a dose of humility. ;)

Pattern still sucks. We'll see what Wednesday brings, though. It looks interesting.

Haha. Man we see so much **** storms back east it's hard not to get excited. Super high bases at least. :P

Wed does look good. Could be some good days further south after too.

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Nicely done again Ian. As much as we'd love a major outbreak, I'd take one photogenic storm in the High Plains over just about any setup obscured by trees in the East.

I too think we'll have more days to sniff out gems in the next week or so.

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Since tomorrow is my last day out here this month I'm willing to bet that the second half of this week is going to see a few tornadoes. That Wyoming storm was awesome, but I really want to see a few tubes this year so I'm feeling Brett's pain so far this season.(Not counting rain curtains in NE last week) The middle two weeks of June is my last chance besides weekend chases so I hope some of you are right about it being a June year.

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Pretty strong wording in the D2 with a 30% hatched risk in place.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014  
 
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH AND  
MID-MS VALLEY REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY  
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  
   
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
 
 
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE  
NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT RISES IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY LATE  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY...SWD INTO CO. ELY  
UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
FORCE 50F+ SFC DEW POINTS TO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 21Z. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION  
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH ELY COMPONENT IN THE LOWEST 2KM AND SBCAPE  
AOA 1500 J/KG AT DEN TO 2000 J/KG AT LIC. SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH  
HEIGHT AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45KT FAVORS LONG-LIVED  
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST HAIL ALGORITHM SUGGESTS HAIL  
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND CLOUD  
BASES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED 20 T/TD SPREADS. IN  
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL CONDITIONS SEEM FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN  
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  
 
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS  
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SUPERCELLS MERGE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.  
AS LLJ INCREASES INTO NEWD-PROPAGATING CONVECTION SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO CNTRL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS...JUST NORTH OF SFC FRONT. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT AFTER  
04Z.
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Wednesday looks pretty good in NE CO/ NW KS... SPC also very much on board with the aforementioned strongly worded 6Z D2 SWO... Best day we might see in a while where you'll have a pretty good shot at getting a tornado IMO.

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