Deck Pic Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 Quick and Dirty..may add some more detailed stats as this thread evolves June: -1 to -2 July: Normal to +1 August: Normal Overall: slightly below Precip: normal Loose analogs- 65, 68, 82 I think it will be a cool summer...obviously coldest since 2009, and probably on par with that summer in terms of overall departures...I'm not sure I'd go colder than -1 on summer overall since DCA can't seem to drop below 74 very often in the middle of summer even in normal air masses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 this pleases me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 I suck at looking at summer but there were a lot of similarities to JFM of 94 this year. The spring and summer of that year was variable. Apr was warm, May was cool, June/July slightly warm, and August quite cool. The summer as a whole in 94 was basically normal. This April is shaping up to be the first AOA month since Dec so the similarities continue. The NPAC sst anoms will have some effect on circ in NA until the warm pool fades. I don't know how that translates to our sensible wx though. Here's JFM h5 anoms for 94 and 14: Not perfect matches but pretty good overall. I think the idea of a normal to slightly cool summer overall is pretty good. Which months is over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 Most summer outlooks, CONUS-wise, will look the same with a Midwest-centered cold anomaly...warmer out West...etc. Developing El Niño years with coldest over MW: 2009, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1977, 1969, 1958 and 1951. Years cold throughout the CONUS: 1982, 1972, 1968 and 1965. Years cold throughout the CONUS but warm in immediate northern Plains: 1997 and 1976. Now for the other side: Developing El Niño years warm throughout CONUS, except maybe far southern-tier: 2006, 2002, 1991 Years warm in the Midwest-Southeast but cool out West: 1987 Years that were cool on both coasts and warm in middle CONUS: 1963, 1957 and 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 17, 2014 Author Share Posted April 17, 2014 Most summer outlooks, CONUS-wise, will look the same with a Midwest-centered cold anomaly...warmer out West...etc. Developing El Niño years with coldest over MW: 2009, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1977, 1969, 1958 and 1951. Years cold throughout the CONUS: 1982, 1972, 1968 and 1965. Years cold throughout the CONUS but warm in immediate northern Plains: 1997 and 1976. Now for the other side: Developing El Niño years warm throughout CONUS, except maybe far southern-tier: 2006, 2002, 1991 Years warm in the Midwest-Southeast but cool out West: 1987 Years that were cool on both coasts and warm in middle CONUS: 1963, 1957 and 195 as mentioned in the 1st post, these are the ones I like Summer can be a little tougher to predict than normal here as the core height anomalies will never be centered over us....They aren't in winter either...this is a tough place to temperature forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 17, 2014 Author Share Posted April 17, 2014 I suck at looking at summer but there were a lot of similarities to JFM of 94 this year. The spring and summer of that year was variable. Apr was warm, May was cool, June/July slightly warm, and August quite cool. The summer as a whole in 94 was basically normal. This April is shaping up to be the first AOA month since Dec so the similarities continue. The NPAC sst anoms will have some effect on circ in NA until the warm pool fades. I don't know how that translates to our sensible wx though. Here's JFM h5 anoms for 94 and 14: jfm1994.JPG jfm2014.JPG Not perfect matches but pretty good overall. I think the idea of a normal to slightly cool summer overall is pretty good. Which months is over my head. The problem I have with 1994, is it was such a convoluted and anomalous pattern that summer, I am not sure how helpful it is to seasonal forecast off of...Maybe it was still remnants of the effects of Pinatubo....even just the fact that we had sleet storm after sleet storm after ice storm that winter coming off of a weird summer Nino event...our 2nd coldest max on RECORD going back to 1870s....our 2nd warmest June on record and warmest at the time...random height anomalies sprinkled in various places...You can't really blend in a June that was a +6 at the time..I am taking a stand that we will have a cold June, which means I would probably toss the entire analog based on June alone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 17, 2014 Author Share Posted April 17, 2014 Bob...better you than me, if you can figure out what the hell to do with this as an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 Bob...better you than me, if you can figure out what the hell to do with this as an analog mISkF2Hx50.png I'll defer...lol. Looks good for the sea ice though. My only contrary thoughts so yours for june (and extreme low confidence) is that we may ridge out a little. Not classic se ridge stuff but if we don't have much amplification during the month we may end up warm. SST in the atlantic off the se coast and the gulf stream up and down is kinda steamy. Could be wet too and that would hold highs down by itself. I'm really not sure. I really do suck at summer pattern recognition at long leads. On the flip side, -1/-2 June sounds pretty spledid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 ETA: My reference to 94 is mainly the possibility of some sort of variant pattern following the big persistent ne pac ridge and warm sst anoms for months on end. Might be totally inconsequential by June but Apr-May will continue be influenced. Summer of 94 warmed in region 3.4 all the way into the fall but it was a slow and steady. If the MW or upper MW has a solid below normal summer then we'll have some brilliant days for sure unless a se pig ridge shows up. I kinda doubt that. Would be great to get occasional shots of dry continental air off and on through the summer. 81* lows with 81% humidity make me want to vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 What were our departures last summer? I remember it being much cooler than the two previous summers, but maybe that is skewed by those summers being so unrelenting with the warmth. Either way, the mention of a normal to slightly below normal summer is pleasing to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 Quick and Dirty..may add some more detailed stats as this thread evolves June: -1 to -2 July: Normal to +1 August: Normal Overall: slightly below Precip: normal Loose analogs- 65, 68, 82 I think it will be a cool summer...obviously coldest since 2009, and probably on par with that summer in terms of overall departures...I'm not sure I'd go colder than -1 on summer overall since DCA can't seem to drop below 74 very often in the middle of summer even in normal air masses... My outlook for the summer is: June:-1 July:+0.5 August:+2.5 90 degree days 35 Rain 12-14" I believe there will be a significant tropical impact along VA/MD/DE/NJ coastline 8/27-9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 Summer can be a little tougher to predict than normal here as the core height anomalies will never be centered over us....They aren't in winter either...this is a tough place to temperature forecast.... My advisor and mentor, Dr. Don Miller at CSU Fresno back in the 80's (I'm dating myself, for sure) consistently said he and his peers would detail the Mid-Atlantic, specifically MD, VA and DC as the toughest place to forecast in North America and would use examples in their summer and winter Met classes in tough case, stump-the-student exercises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 It's going to be hot. Even if it's cooler than normal, which seems pretty possible, it's going to be hot. The arrival of spring is the start of my "countdown to autumn." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 ^Bump. Just finished my summer outlook and it's posted at this link for anyone interested: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/ I looked into tropical forcing differences within Basin wide nino events and their downstream effects on the NA summer pattern and east asian hadley cell circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 meh...I'm pretty sure I'm going to go warm...doing an outlook this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 meh...I'm pretty sure I'm going to go warm...doing an outlook this week neither the new Euro long range forecast (out today on the free site) nor the CFS are impressed with warmth for our area June-Aug fwtw http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_2tm!2m%20temperature!1%20month!South%20America!201405!tercile%20summary!/ (yes, I know, you can't really see DCA/BWI on the Euro map but it's close enough and I doubt we would be different than S VA) http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 My outlook for the summer is: June:-1 July:+0.5 August:+2.5 90 degree days 35 Rain 12-14" I believe there will be a significant tropical impact along VA/MD/DE/NJ coastline 8/27-9/5 Mr Z-Have not given up on minus June yet as big changes may be coming starting 6/20. Still thing the idea of a modestly + summer is on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Mr Z-Have not given up on minus June yet as big changes may be coming starting 6/20. Still thing the idea of a modestly + summer is on track. we'd need something special those last 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 we'd need something special those last 10 days No heat waves on guidance but I agree, it's going to be tough. The only way we stand a chance is a stretch of cloudy/rainy to knock down the highs. We aren't going to get it on the mins. There's some backdoor possibilities on the euro+ens with a retrograding low near the maritimes in 4-5 days. After that gets muddy but I don't see much indication of a cool spell. I'm just hoping we get another dry continental air mass in here before the month closes. This weekend was pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Bob-I think late weekend may have some near the coast low moving northeast and same time looks like good high pressure north of lakes. Like you said, with cloudy cover and rain daytime temps would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Bob-I think late weekend may have some near the coast low moving northeast and same time looks like good high pressure north of lakes. Like you said, with cloudy cover and rain daytime temps would be cool. Definitely some aob possibilities with a strong low spinning in the Maritimes for a couple days next week. But dca is going to likely be +3-4 on the month by Friday. That's a big anomaly to knock down to even zero. We'll need a nasty backdoor front wirh solid ne flow for 3+ days followed by a 3+ day rainy period with the boundary well south and then a big Canadian dome of hp with low dews for 3+ days. Believe me, I'm rooting for all 3 and would love to see the month close BN. It's going to take a small miracle tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 DCA +2.0 IAD & BWI near normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 B0th of our ideas were bad but CWG was good. Still think the summer will be slightly plus so maybe August is the cooler month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think the progressing tropical/QBO forcings (QBO using the MQI correlations developed here) suggest that July should feature the most anomalous warmth of the summer season (specifically the first 2-3 weeks of the month), with the coolest period of the summer (relative to average) timed between August 1st and August 15th I also think September has the potential to run very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 B0th of our ideas were bad but CWG was good. Still think the summer will be slightly plus so maybe August is the cooler month. CWG is all that matters for me with outlooks these days...these were just thoughts...I like your July call I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think the progressing tropical/QBO forcings (QBO using the MQI correlations developed here) suggest that July should feature the most anomalous warmth of the summer season (specifically the first 2-3 weeks of the month), with the coolest period of the summer (relative to average) timed between August 1st and August 15th I also think September has the potential to run very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 CWG is all that matters for me with outlooks these days...these were just thoughts...I like your July call I think.... I like it too right now. At least for the first half of the month. Looks like we'll average AOB for a week to 10 days starting tomorrow. Some days will be AN I'm sure but a pretty nice height pattern setting up for July on the means. Euro weeklies are showing predominant ridging in the west half of the country with troughing in the east half. Not amplified or particularly anomalous but if we can get general pattern like that we won't get hosed on humid nights with high lows. With all this being said, July is not an easy month to go BN unless it's loaded with clouds and rain. At the very least, extended heat isn't on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I like it too right now. At least for the first half of the month. Looks like we'll average AOB for a week to 10 days starting tomorrow. Some days will be AN I'm sure but a pretty nice height pattern setting up for July on the means. Hope you're right. My concern is flow aloft looks (and should be) quite zonal in the long run, especially beyond the current trough..I'll be AWOL for the next week so maybe I'm being careless, but I'm thinking mid-upper 90s to return by Monday/Tuesday, followed by a break, before a more persistent warm pattern develops mid-Month. This in part due to Arthur forcing a wave-breaking event in the NATL...so I'm not sure that'd be conductive to persistent troughing in our area, especially with the MJO where it is now, suggesting some vorticity in the EPO domain by Mid-month. I'd love to come home to some cooler wx, but am starting to doubt that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Mr Z- It is interesting how we have had several mid month flips over last 12 months. I think your August cool prediction has a real shot. I foresaw a pretty cool month also but thought it would be June with August the hot one and well may turn out that August is the cool one and July around or slightly above average as we both predicted. Our overall call for a modestly plus summer still looks on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I need to leave the long-range to Bob Chill from now-on...I'm definitely not at my best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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