HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 There's also Tico 83 to deal with as IIIRC, that was 115 knts at landfall. While many keyt 70s and 80s hits have no known pressure, I will say that assuming your 1959 cane landfall pressure of 953 mbar stands, you can say that you have chased the stronger hurricane landfall by mbar on record (Odile, 930 mbar operationally, likely closer to 940). Ha! I didn't even think of that. My pressure in ODILE's eye was 943 mb. We were a few miles from the center of the eye, and there was definitely some gradient in the eye (1-2 mb/n mi), so I think a landfall pressure around 938 mb would make sense, based on my data alone. (But I am sure the NHC has other factors and data aside from mine.) Here's a link to my report, in case you didn't see it: http://icyclone.com/now/2014/oct/06-october-2014.html Re: TICO... My research has it at 110 kt, but hey, that's close to your estimate. Maybe we'll tackle that one next, since it's an important landfall (was near Mazatlan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Kinda gettin' excited about VANCE.... I'm sensing a cool Last Supper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z GFS boomerangs it to near that area early on 11/4. At the very least, the last four runs of the GFS have shown a similar hit for late 10/3-early 10/4 fwiw. I maintain that climo is supportive since its peak ends only a few days prior to 11/3-4 and we're supposedly going into a weak Nino. For folks not recalling this, we went down this road in 2012 but this time we've had support from the Euro on a good number of runs, including the last few. In 2012, there was zero Euro support and the Euro ended up being correct. OTOH, the 12Z Euro is back to stalling it offshore and then weakening it. It stalls as an upper high forms over MX and blocks it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Ha! I didn't even think of that. My pressure in ODILE's eye was 943 mb. We were a few miles from the center of the eye, and there was definitely some gradient in the eye (1-2 mb/n mi), so I think a landfall pressure around 938 mb would make sense, based on my data alone. (But I am sure the NHC has other factors and data aside from mine.) Here's a link to my report, in case you didn't see it: http://icyclone.com/now/2014/oct/06-october-2014.html Re: TICO... My research has it at 110 kt, but hey, that's close to your estimate. Maybe we'll tackle that one next, since it's an important landfall (was near Mazatlan). As for Tico, HURDAT has it at 110 knts. Not 115. My bad. Operationally, the pressure for Odile Kinda gettin' excited about VANCE.... I'm sensing a cool Last Supper... It hasn't even formed yet, and I'm starting to think dry air may hold it in check for a while. We don't have CCKW support like what we've had for all the other majors this season. But shear and SST's are perfect. at landfall was 930 mbar. I'd go with 936mbar ish for pressure at landfall. But estimating landfall intensities is not my strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 As for Tico, HURDAT has it at 110 knts. Not 115. My bad. Operationally, the pressure for Odile It hasn't even formed yet, and I'm starting to think dry air may hold it in check for a while. We don't have CCKW support like what we've had for all the other majors this season. But shear and SST's are perfect. at landfall was 930 mbar. I'd go with 936mbar ish for pressure at landfall. But estimating landfall intensities is not my strength. Yeah, operationally ODILE was 930 mb, but I feel that might be a little low. Your value or mine make sense, I think. Still excited about 93E. An informed source tells me the future for this could get very interestin'. We'll see with the first advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 18z GFS a litte more NE, still has it making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 18z GFS a litte more NE, still has it making landfall. Add the 0Z 10/29 GFS to the 11/4 hitting list. Will the Euro return to a hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hey, guys-- Re: the EPAC's landfall history... I meant to confirm that, yes, when I was referring to the only two known November hurricane landfalls, I was talking about TARA 1961 and RICK 1997. I should clarify that I limit my comments about statistics, climatology, and records to the HURDAT era-- which for the NATL is 1851-present and for the EPAC is 1949-present. That having been said... GaWx, thanks for the heads-up Re: those other Nov landfalls from the 19th century. Cool stuff. Gonna research those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hey, guys-- Re: the EPAC's landfall history... I meant to confirm that, yes, when I was referring to the only two known November hurricane landfalls, I was talking about TARA 1961 and RICK 1997. I should clarify that I limit my comments about statistics, climatology, and records to the HURDAT era-- which for the NATL is 1851-present and for the EPAC is 1949-present. That having been said... GaWx, thanks for the heads-up Re: those other Nov landfalls from the 19th century. Cool stuff. Gonna research those. Josh, You're welcome. Well, guess what..the wishy washy Euro is back on your side. It is a hit on 11/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Josh, You're welcome. Well, guess what..the wishy washy Euro is back on your side. It is a hit on 11/4. It's cool to have a possible chase subject to track this late in the season. This has been an epic year for the EPAC, so it would be fitting for some weird landfall event to violate climatology. Even if this thing's only going to come ashore as a Cat 1, I'll probably go for it, since it's in my backyard and I'm just itching for some more chase action before the season ends. A 'cane is a 'cane-- I dig 'em all-- even the Cat 1s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Track looks good and if the slower development continues, that dry air to its N may become less of an issue as moisture moves in from the W with convective activity SE of Hawaii. Nice way to end the chase season in a very active Eastern Pacific season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Track looks good and if the slower development continues, that dry air to its N may become less of an issue as moisture moves in from the W with convective activity SE of Hawaii. Nice way to end the chase season in a very active Eastern Pacific season. Wow, yeah. I have to say, from a chaserdude standpoint, that's a pretty hawt track-- an accelerating recurve into a large landmass-- especially after the hell I've been through this year with islands, peninsula tips, etc. I'm just over the whole island/peninsula thing. As GaWx has pointed out, very-early Nov is still inside the window decent EPAC landfall climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 6z GFS shows a hit, but weakens it quite a bit before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yeah, the GFS has definitely backed off a little. For what it's worth, the GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement Re: track and timing, with a Sinaloa landfall between 6 and 7 days, it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It looks like Rick '09 track and collapse after recurve wise. The incoming trough it's pretty strong, and decouples the cyclone before landfall in both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It looks like Rick '09 track and collapse after recurve wise. The incoming trough it's pretty strong, and decouples the cyclone before landfall in both models. I'm thinking the same thing. For a hurricane to make it to MX at a decent strength the track is usu closer to the coast. Such a wide turn usually means the cyclone weakens dramatically before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It looks like Rick '09 track and collapse after recurve wise. The incoming trough it's pretty strong, and decouples the cyclone before landfall in both models. I'm thinking the same thing. For a hurricane to make it to MX at a decent strength the track is usu closer to the coast. Such a wide turn usually means the cyclone weakens dramatically before landfall. I agree. This one doesn't have much chance of making a strong landfall unless trough interaction occurs at just the right time. As it stands now, unfavorable interaction will shear the storm apart and advect dry air right into the core. Something more favorable, along the lines of say Wilma's (2005) recurvature in which coupling of the outflow jet to a mid-latitude jet without destroying the TC core is perhaps within the realm of possibilities, but a heavily unfavored solution at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wide curve late in the season doesn't necessarily mean weak landfall. KENNA 2002 went all the way out to ~109W before turning and coming ashore as a Cat 4. I'm not making predictions about this, just saying nothing's written in stone-- there are no rules. Weird the way everyone floods into the discussion to pile on about how lame it is. It was also interesting a few days ago when the models showed a big landfall. But maybe decoupling is sexier to talk about...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wide curve late in the season doesn't necessarily mean weak landfall. KENNA 2002 went all the way out to ~109W before turning and coming ashore as a Cat 4. I'm not making predictions about this, just saying nothing's written in stone-- there are no rules. Weird the way everyone floods into the discussion to pile on about how lame it is. It was also interesting a few days ago when the models showed a big landfall. But maybe decoupling is sexier to talk about...? I was skeptical of the big landfall scenario from the get-go, so I thought I'd wait a bit to see how the situation evolved. Plus it was fun watching you weenie out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I was skeptical of the big landfall scenario from the get-go, so I thought I'd wait a bit to see how the situation evolved. Plus it was fun watching you weenie out. You must be bored out of your skull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The NHC's initial advisory is unexpectedly sexy: hurricane approaching Puerto Vallarta at Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014The depression has become a little better organized with a moreprominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However,recent microwave images show that the center remains on thesouthwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting thatsouthwesterly shear continues to affect the depression. Althoughthe overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensityestimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed willconservatively remain 30 kt.Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear anddry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue forthe next day or two. As a result, the latest model guidance doesnot show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues thetrend of showing only slow intensification. After that time, theglobal models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with anincrease in moisture. These conditions should promote moresignificant strengthening at longer ranges. The NHC forecast isclosest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the modelconsensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment.Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additionalstrengthening after that time.The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of theprevious estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity,leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt.The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward andsouthwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridgebuilds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge isforecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which shouldcause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestwardin 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone isforecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approachesthe Baja California peninsula. The official NHC forecast is alittle faster than the consensus after accounting for theunrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to theprevious forecast.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH48H 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH72H 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH$$Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The NHC has backed off on intensity, which makes sense, given the wider recurve and the trend in the models. I'd agree, it looks very RICK 2009ish now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 After struggling for several days, Vance is now our record-tying 16 hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Vance is well on its way to becoming the 9th major hurricane of the East Pacific hurricane season. This would put 2014 solely in first place for the highest number of major hurricanes on record, surpassing 1992's 8 majors. If we combine the East Pacific and Central Pacific, this would be the 10th major hurricane of the season--tying 1992. 0z Best Track was 90kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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