thewxmann Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Glad someone brought up the upwelling. The SHIPS output a couple of days ago had 28-29C SST's in Polo's track which didn't make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Glad someone brought up the upwelling. The SHIPS output a couple of days ago had 28-29C SST's in Polo's track which didn't make sense to me. This is also my yearly reminder that the global models do not have the ability to depict upwelling by TCs... they are at the mercy of the initial condition SSTs, which then are slowly modified over time to climatological SST values for that time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 22, 2014 Author Share Posted September 22, 2014 Polo is down and well (almost) out. But now we have 99E. Could become a hurricane or even a major down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 It's not, and probably won't ever be, the best-looking storm this Pacific hurricane season has offered so far, but at the very least it will aid in putting us one step closer to the end of the conventional alphabet. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014800 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south ofMexico has increased and persisted overnight. The convection is notextremely well organized due to strong northeasterly shear, howeverDvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both SAB and TAFB suggest that thesystem has enough organization to be classified as a tropicaldepression. The shear is causing the convection to be displaced tothe south and southwest of the low-level center. The initialintensity is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latestDvorak classifications and earlier ASCAT data. Strong upper-levelwinds over the cyclone are expected to continue during the next 24hours or so. After that time, the depression is forecast to moveinto an area of decreasing shear and some gradually strengthening ispredicted. Late in the period, the cyclone will move into a lessfavorable thermodynamic environment and weakening should commence.The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance. The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. The depression shouldmove west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge overMexico during the next several days. After 72 hours, the cyclonewill approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitudetrough that will be moving into California. This should cause thecyclone to slow down and turn northwestward by days 4 and 5. Thetrack guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and the NHCtrack is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 15.0N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 25/0000Z 15.7N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH24H 25/1200Z 16.7N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH36H 26/0000Z 17.7N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH72H 27/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH96H 28/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 29/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 27, 2014 Author Share Posted September 27, 2014 After struggling for a few days, Rachael is def in the right direction. May become a hurricane tomorrow if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 Rachel has very quietly become a 75-knt hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 She's gone, but Simon is here. Currently 45 knts, NHC brings this up to 65 knts. NHC track IMO too far west as the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF brings this close to Baja as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Simon says overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Simon is likely a Major Hurricane at this hour. The guidance is split as to the re-curve scenario with the Euro further W before re-curve commences and the GFS insistent that a quicker turn to the NE begins on Monday. It will be interesting to see how the remnants of Simon affect the sensible weather next week across Northern Mexico, New Mexico and the Central Plains where there is some concern for flooding as the remnants wrap up and become entrenched in the 5H low expected over the Great Lakes later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 Simon is currently 95 knts. I know some are clamouring for a major, but at that time, a 5.0 from SAb, a 5.0 form 8.1.2 V ADT, and a 5.5 from TAFB supported it. For the first time ever, we get recon right when it's RIing in an EPAC storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 Simon is definitely not rapidly intensifying still. The eye has begun to fill in and lose its definition. Also, convection is starting a warming trend. I'd say that the max that recon finds is 105 knots Meh, too soon to say IMO. Slight fluctuations like this is common in major hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Incredibly tight RMW with a estimated SLP of 949mb/49knot surface wind... We'll see what the VDM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 I'd say that the max that recon finds is 105 knots Not bad... D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) 000 WTPZ64 KNHC 041753 TCUEP4 HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 This thing looks perfectly gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 I was looking at future E. Pacific names on the NHC website yesterday. You will not believe what the 'I' storm is in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Interesting that Yolanda is the "Y" name for every second year, same name as Haiyan in the Philippines. I also see Dora on the rotation for 2017 and that's a retired name from the Atlantic (1964). Also Isis was put the rotation long before the Middle East events, so that's not really unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Interesting that Yolanda is the "Y" name for every second year, same name as Haiyan in the Philippines. I also see Dora on the rotation for 2017 and that's a retired name from the Atlantic (1964). Also Isis was put the rotation long before the Middle East events, so that's not really unbelievable. I know that, but it seems so ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 5, 2014 Author Share Posted October 5, 2014 Simon is a Cat 4 now. 115 knts/946 mbar. What a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Disturbance near 140 degrees west looks better organized and the GFS takes it in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 0z GFS had this hitting Hawaii as a hurricane, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Tropical Depression 2C has now formed. NHC brings this very close to Hawaii Day 5 as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 You mean CPHC? It's Ana now, BTW, though the track has shifted east. Most models have this passing a bit E of the island group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Poor Trudy... nobody wants to talk about her despite an impressive radar presentation for a 40 mph tropical storm. http://i.imgur.com/8zda3DC.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Poor Trudy... nobody wants to talk about her despite an impressive radar presentation for a 40 mph tropical storm. Quite a shame it didn't have more time over water, from the 06z SHIPS (as these ignore land) Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 75% is 5.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 67% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 57% is 9.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 54% is 12.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Trudy or may I say its remains will be a threat to the Yucatan but who knows after that and another thing to notice is this may have been a hurricane if there was some readings for Trudy as the satellite and radar images were excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 19, 2014 Author Share Posted October 19, 2014 Trudy reminded me a bit of both Humberto and Barbara. Too bad the NHC never upped. Are there any Dvorak estimates for a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Thought y'all might enjoy this, from my Hurricane ODILE chase—the most wild of my career aside from Super Typhoon HAIYAN. After the calm eye had cleared Cabo San Lucas, just minutes into the cyclone’s backside, our hotel lobby suddenly exploded into flying glass, furniture, and wreckage. Our hotel was awesome enough to send us the surveillance video! The first shot shows my cameraman, Steve; the second shows me. You can laugh at our shocked reactions—I look like Chicken Little trying to shield my eyes from flying glass —but notice that the first thing we both do is grab our cameras—like good chaserdudes. Each time I replay these videos, I notice cool new details: Steve’s computer blowing away, a flying chair, a sofa cushion swirling in a circle, a large door launching from the hotel entrance like a missile… P.S. iCyclone’s official ODILE video is coming soon—but in the meantime, enjoy this deep-fried appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 ok, that's cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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