Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 I was being too bullish earlier. I guess I was just too excited Still, I think the odds are decent that we'll see a major next week. BTW, 12E is now Lowell, and Karina is up to 55 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I was being too bullish earlier. I guess I was just too excited Still, I think the odds are decent that we'll see a major next week. BTW, 12E is now Lowell, and Karina is up to 55 knts. I agree, there's at least a decent shot at a major. 12Z GFS was a dream run with remnants of that storm making it up here in about 2 weeks (highly unprecedented). Too bad there's a 0.1% shot of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I agree, there's at least a decent shot at a major. 12Z GFS was a dream run with remnants of that storm making it up here in about 2 weeks (highly unprecedented). Too bad there's a 0.1% shot of that happening. I think there were 1-2 runs of the GFDL for Linda in 1997 that made it to Los Angeles as a hurricane; that was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Lowell and Karina are chugging along as a 45 knt TS. We now have 92E, a mandarin. Unanimous agreement on a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Lowell and Karina are chugging along as a 45 knt TS. We now have 92E, a mandarin. Unanimous agreement on a major. 92E makes it to Landfall in Southern CA (weakening rapidly, of course) on the 18Z GFS. I couldn't Imagine the pants-wetting frenzy of an actual advisory tropical system making landfall in CA in today's media environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Wow that day 7 storm looks massive on every model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Two of the last 3 GFS runs make this sub-945 mbar. 92E is a cherry, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Models have generally shifted to offshore tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The 12z GFS has a fujiwhara effect for Karina and Lowell and merges them at about 114 hours. --- NHC discussion on Karina -- Karina is embedded in very light steering currents, and consequentlythe storm has barely moved today. Little motion is anticipatedduring the next 24 hours. Karina will then begin to drift eastward,followed by a northeastward motion with a small increase in forwardspeed around the south and east sides of the large circulation ofTropical Storm Lowell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 This morning's 12Z GFS run at hour 126 is depicting Marie has having a ~900 mile diameter outermost closed isobar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 Lowell is a hurricane, Karina a mid-level TS. 92E is the big story, and still on track to be a large hurricane out at sea. Big threat will be super high waves due to high intensity/size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 By the way, as a point of reference I believe Sandy's OCI was ~1100 miles in diameter. Anybody know what the largest East Pacific cyclone was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Wow Lowell has a pretty goofy looking presentation. That's a massive eye. Will be neat to watch this one die off, per the 2 AM advisory: After thattime, the shear is expected to remain low, but the cyclone will bemoving over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable airmass that should cause weakening. Given the large size of Lowell'swind field, the rate of weakening is likely to be slower than thetypical spin down of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones that moveover cool water. In fact, Lowell is likely to become aconvective-free post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds ina few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 By the way, as a point of reference I believe Sandy's OCI was ~1100 miles in diameter. Anybody know what the largest East Pacific cyclone was? Cosme 13 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 13E is here. Appears to be bombing out much like Jimena 09. We could have a hurricane on our hands by tomorrow evening easily. Let the games begin! This should become a Cat 4 barring any unexpected dry air infusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Nice looking Major EPAC cyclone in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 NHC issued one of the more strongly worded forecasts I've seen in a long time in the public outlook. TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014Marie appears to be on the verge of intensifying rapidly. Thecyclone is in the process of developing a central dense overcast,consisting of very cold-topped convection. Numerous outer bands arealso present. The upper-level outflow over the storm is wellestablished, suggesting an expanding warm core. Dvorak intensityestimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, withUW-CIMSS ADT values around 4.0. A blend of these data are used toset the initial intensity to 60 kt.Marie continues on a steady west-northwestward course, with theinitial motion estimated to be 285/13. A continued west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expectedthrough 48 hours while the cyclone moves along the southwestern sideof a mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from the easternUnited States into the eastern Pacific. A bend in the track towardthe northwest is anticipated after 72 hours as Marie reaches thewestern end of the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance isgenerally in good agreement on this scenario, and the track forecastis little changed from the previous one despite a slight shift inthe guidance to the north this cycle.The stage is set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next dayor two, with global models forecasting a nearly ideal environmentfor strengthening. The SHIPS model output bolsters this idea,indicating a 54 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensityduring the next 24 hours. The official forecast is at or above theupper end of the intensity guidance through 72 hours. Given thevery favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that theintensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term. Thenagain, it cannot be ruled out that unpredictable internal dynamicssuch as eyewall replacement cycles could prevent Marie fromrealizing its full potential. By days 4 and 5, the passage of Marieover sharply lower sea surface temperatures should hasten weakening,even though the shear should be relatively low. The intensityforecast late in the period remains above the nearly all theguidance but is closest to SHIPS model output.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 23/0300Z 13.7N 104.8W 60 KT 70 MPH12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH24H 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W 115 KT 135 MPH48H 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 125 KT 145 MPH72H 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH96H 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH120H 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH$Forecaster Kimberlain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 So another little update. Karina is up to 70 knts while Lowell is on its way out. The big story is Marie. Assuming no unexpected dry air/ERC gets in the way, it should reach Cat 5. NHC even calls for 125 knt peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Look at her go. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Look at her go. Woof. Marie is having trouble clearing out an eye actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Pinhole eye is trying to form. Maybe about to start an RI cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Raw ADT were just up to 6.9. Officially 90 knts per NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Pinhole eye is trying to form. Maybe about to start an RI cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Raw ADT were up 7.3, but prior to that was 4.4 and currently 5.1. Having issues with center fix due to the small eye, which still needs to clear out more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 34, NEQ, 220, 180, 150, 150, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 60, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 34, NEQ, 220, 180, 150, 150, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 60, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D, Not only is Marie the strongest storm of the season (Amanda 14 was 135/932), Marie is the strongest EPAC storm since Dora 11, which was 135/929. Tied for strongest since Celia 10, which was 140/921. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Very impressive CAT 4 Marie heading W this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Looking at everything, I'd go with 135 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Raw adt now 7.4, if it holds, CAT5 at next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Raw adt now 7.4, if it holds, CAT5 at next advisory. It was at 7.7 earlier. Final and adj ADT's are catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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