Stebo Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 SPC went with a small 10% hatched area tomorrow centered just northeast of DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Certainly possible, southern MS and eastern LA look pretty good on Monday. I actually think it looks alright all the way up to here as long as we can recover from the morning crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I actually think it looks alright all the way up to here as long as we can recover from the morning crap. Yeah I corrected my post after glancing at the 00z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I'm not sure why SPC put an enhanced tornado risk NE of DFW when a vast majority of convective-allowing models break the cap out in front of the dryline. I'm not optimistic at all regarding the chance of storms south of the Red River, not to mention any of the hazards those storms would bring. However, we'll see what happens later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I think SPC is waiting to see what happens with this overnight system before making some significant amendments to the risk outlook at 12z. It could do anything from stabilize the atmosphere with clouds, to erode the cap and lay down potent outflow boundaries. I've seen these go both ways... what are our high resolution models showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Moderate risk dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 SPC downgraded to Slight, 10% hatched tornado probabilities have also been removed. Not at all surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Cloud cover is a major concern but helicity throughout the area is significant. If insolation occurs later today there still could be problems even if the tornadic threat has decreased somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 HRRR does not look overly impressive. With that said, it does develop a line of storms from eastern OK into southeastern KS and northern MO. Not much of anything (with the dryline) in Texas. Based off HRRR helicity and radar reflectivity, the target zone may be northeast OK. Climo likes eastern OK into AR/S MO from what I saw via the 12z Saturday CIPS analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Looks like North Texas never gets many breaks in the overcast, which is too bad, although the showers may have something to do with it, the morning sounding has a much weaker cap than the 0Z or yesterday's 12Z. If it is anywhere in Texas, I feel at least indirect ownership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I actually think it looks alright all the way up to here as long as we can recover from the morning crap. Given the narrowness of the warm sector and the impact of early convection, I don't see that much of a threat. Even with the secondary low, too much will come down to mesoscale features. The lead impulse arrives a good 12 hours too soon Monday, and by early afternoon the best forcing starts lifting to the NE of the warm sector. SPC's Day 2 is bearish on tornado potential, mentioning only "weak to moderate destabilization" at most. Then again, those types of setups with low instability often still produce a few significant tornadoes in the SE/Dixie Alley, but usually with more shear than currently forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 The cloud cover and ongoing sporadic precipitation seems to be dampening the afternoon threat. Cloud cover here is only now beginning to thin out and there's still no sun peeking out anywhere. Looks like some moderate hail this afternoon and that's really about it. Their may be a narrow axis of instability just east of I35 that is favorable to brief spinups but really looks pretty weak as an overall system. Ingredients just aren't aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Perhaps the clearing/thinning clouds ahead of the cold front (and behind the line of light showers), may create a bit more instability later. Not sure it is time yet to give up on this one quite yet (except if you are are hoping to see a swarm of EF-3+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Perhaps the clearing/thinning clouds ahead of the cold front (and behind the line of light showers), may create a bit more instability later. Not sure it is time yet to give up on this one quite yet (except if you are are hoping to see a swarm of EF-3+). visible 4-13.JPG I don't see anything to indicate more than a few isolated tornadoes. Rotating supercells and tornado warnings? Sure...but tornadoes on the ground in masse? I don't see it today...A few quick spinups as storms get going but fairly quickly it appears we'll see a line segment with embedded hail and straightline winds sweep eastern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Looks like im still the only one on board with this... Morning "crap" wont be as detremential to the instability and overall SVR threat as you might expect... Seeing as to how clouds are already burnt off for a decent part of the warm sector especially along tge dryline. Albeit N Texas probably wont see much of anything because of morning clouds... But near the triple-point in SC Kansas still looks good, as well as further south down the dryline with 2000j/kg of SBCAPE already in place in association with modest shear. SRH 0-1km values are AOA 300m2/s2, with 0-3km SRH being better than that along the dryline and in SC/SE Kansas. The northern portion of this is still very much in play IMO (SC/ SE KS, and C/NC/E OK) see how the cloud cover plays out the next hour or two i guess. EDIT: Narrow band of clearing though attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 The situation along the cold front in nern OK / sern KS / swrn MO this afternoon could get rather interesting with a likely outflow boundary in place. As steeper mid-level lapse rates move into this area we could see some of the scattered t-storms near Tulsa lay down such an outflow boundary. Clearing in this area is occurring about as rapidly as what the 12Z NAM shows and hodographs for 18Z-00Z time frame look better up there than anywhere else in the warm sector. We will certainly see 2,000+ j/kg SBCAPE near the border of ern OK/KS this afternoon during peak heating. MCD is out…snip THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...AMONG ACONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL DATA...ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ASSOCIATEDFORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATIONOF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AROUND 18-19Z.THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR BOTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEASTOF THE LOW...NEAR/NORTHEAST OF SALINA THROUGH THE MANHATTAN/TOPEKAAREA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW....TOTHE NORTH AND EAST OF WICHITA INTO THE EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS.GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARESUPPORTING SIZABLE WARM SECTOR CAPE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROBABLY WILLBE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVEREHAIL...EVEN WITH ACTIVITY FORMING TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THEWARM FRONT. WITH THE STRONGER 500 MB JET REMAINING WELL TO THESOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOWPROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE TORNADOPOTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THEDRYLINE...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LARGEAND CLOCKWISE CURVED...PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ACOUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 New MCD for Kansas. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0333.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 SPC maintains SLGT Risk...basically writes off the TX tornado potential in a few sentences. ...CENTRAL TX...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TXIS MORE UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY MORE SPARSE. NEVERTHELESS...ANISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLYALONG AN AXIS FROM GNV-SEP-JCT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULDBE THE MAIN THREAT. NAM backs the LL winds in N TX…GFS/RAP are strongly veered…I'll side with the latter…though the NAM has been consistent in run after run (as has the RAP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 CU field starting to develop in North Central Texas along the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 CU field starting to develop in North Central Texas along the dryline. FWIW, the HRRR does now very vigorously break the cap around DFW later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Tornado Watch Likely for Central and E OK. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0334.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 FWIW, the HRRR does now very vigorously break the cap around DFW later... Some of the CU tops near Abilene are near 5C via GOES, which should be ~700mb. So definitely pushing up against the cap. Could see CI down there within 1-2 hrs if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 FWIW, the HRRR does now very vigorously break the cap around DFW later... Watching this very closely. For all my misgivings about wave timing and veering, I could still get excited about this spatiotemporal window... if the morning crap were clearing out faster. Still raining throughout most of the Metroplex, and full clearing won't take place for at least a couple more hours. It will be a very close call as to whether destabilization can occur fast enough to support this threat. If not, I wouldn't be surprised to see CI farther W that dies off quickly upon reaching the relatively cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 We were cloudy for a good part of the day 4/3 here in DFW and still had some nasty storms, granted didn't have the rain like we did today, but none the less. I won't discount anything just yet, but it may be a close call. It has stopped raining near the airport and clouds look to be trying to thin out now. If anything it is going to be muggy when the sun comes out. FWD still calling for a high of 81 here so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Watching this very closely. For all my misgivings about wave timing and veering, I could still get excited about this spatiotemporal window... if the morning crap were clearing out faster. Still raining throughout most of the Metroplex, and full clearing won't take place for at least a couple more hours. It will be a very close call as to whether destabilization can occur fast enough to support this threat. If not, I wouldn't be surprised to see CI farther W that dies off quickly upon reaching the relatively cooler air. DYX radar shows showers developing pretty quickly just West of the ABI area. Narrow window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 The whole CU field in Texas is popping TCU showers now. None seem to be breaking the cap though (under 20kft). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 The whole CU field in Texas is popping TCU showers now. None seem to be breaking the cap though (under 20kft). Huh? Looks like a few of those cells are now 25-30kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 The one WSW of ABI is developing nicely. Went from nothing to 30k+ ft in a few scans. Another rapidly developing one SW of Wichita Falls. They are on the northern end of some very strong effective shear values (>60 kts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.