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April 6th-7th Severe Thread


andyhb

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For those of you who like helicity-- here is the RAP analysis of about 1500 m2/s2 of helicity, most of which can't be used by stable surface air parcels

 

What will be relevant is when it rapidly increases further south as the LLJ strengthens/surface low deepens.

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Patrick Marsh laying it down..

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1010 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN   MISSISSIPPI....SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 65...   VALID 070310Z - 070515Z   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 65 CONTINUES.   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS   EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD.   TORNADOES...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.   DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 65. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SURFACE BASED   INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND MODEST EFFECTIVE   STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY /MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/ WILL   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE   BASED THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.    TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A   REGION OF STRONG WARM-AIR ADVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN   EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD THAT HAS SLOWED THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF   THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ADVANCE   NORTHWARD AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO   LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE   TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WW   65...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ESTABLISHED STORM THAT CAN BEGIN TO   INTERACT WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT.   ..MARSH.. 04/07/2014   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
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New svr tstrm warnings 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1034 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

 

LAC005-033-047-063-121-070415-

/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-140407T0415Z/

ASCENSION LA-WEST BATON ROUGE LA-EAST BATON ROUGE LA-LIVINGSTON LA-

IBERVILLE LA-

1034 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

FOR IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...EAST BATON ROUGE...WEST BATON ROUGE AND

ASCENSION PARISHES...

and 

US54 KJAN 070344

SVRJAN

MSC037-063-070430-

/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0089.140407T0344Z-140407T0430Z/

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

1044 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

  EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

 

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

 

* AT 1043 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAMBURG...

  AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

NORTHERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 315 AM CDT

* AT 220 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS

WILL BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE

HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...

BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION

POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

STRINGER AROUND 230 AM CDT.

MOSS AROUND 235 AM CDT.

PAULDING AND HEIDELBERG AROUND 250 AM CDT.

BARNETT AND STAFFORD SPRINGS AROUND 255 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SOSO AND PACHUTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY

TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE

TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

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Just 3 tornadoes were actually confirmed from the

overnight storms, with the damaging EF-2

between Collins and Taylorsville MS, luckily not

causing any fatalities.  EF-1 tornado was indeed

confirmed northeast of Philadelphia, despite

thoughts of the storm being elevated.  It certainly

looked, from my vantage point being strong

enough couplet-wise to warrant a TOR.  Another

brief EF-0 was in southern AL.  None in the

Birmingham CWA.

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