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April 1st-4th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1045 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SERN OK...CENTRAL AND SRN AR...NWRN MS AND

SWRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...

VALID 040345Z - 040445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /INCLUDING TORNADO POTENTIAL/ IS

EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT

PERIOD ACROSS SERN OK INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR AND REACH NWRN MS AND SWRN

TN.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED FOR THE DISCUSSION

AREA...AND WILL REPLACE THE SRN PART OF WW 53 THAT IS SCHEDULED TO

EXPIRE AT 05Z.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED NEW STORMS HAD DEVELOPED

OVER SRN AR WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA...WHILE A LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF

STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THROUGH FAR NERN TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS

RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN OK WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT YET

CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THIS

REGION.

WSR-88D VWP/S ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID SOUTH SHOWED

STRENGTHENING SWLY 500 MB WINDS OF 55-65 KT ATOP A SSWLY 50 KT LLJ

EXTENDING FROM LA INTO AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN. THESE TRENDS HAVE

RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR /LARGER HODOGRAPH

CURVATURE NOW OBSERVED AT THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D/ AND STRENGTHENING

DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

MEANWHILE...THE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED SOME...BUT REMAINS

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE FOR AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE WEATHER

THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE

POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES...GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR

ALONG THE LLJ.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/04/2014

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Looks like a derecho event may be taking shape in MS.  MCV looks to have formed just W of MEM, with a hella RIJ feeding into the back end of the MCS.  The HRRR/RAP keep the instability axis shifting E along and just ahead of it, so I don't honestly see a reason why it's going to weaken all that much before say I-65 in AL.  Also, it's moving at about 55-60kt.  That's impressive cold-pool aided propagation.

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This thread should go into the main forum.

Staff is very aware of the attention of that legitimate widespread severe events bring to our community and if/when a 'true Multi Regional Outbreak' is imminent, we will strongly consider a Main Page exposure for such events. That said this was a nice warm-up for our severe weather members and kudos to everyone that contributed over the past week or so.
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