Mikehobbyst Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I think April will be 80 percent sh*t and very few nice days on the whole. A ton of days in the 40's with rain, and a few 55-60 degree days with sun, but again very few based on negative NAO and cut-offs off the northeast coast quite frequently. The frigid ocean temps which will likely take to late May to warm up appreciably, will not help us at all. I would say close the blinds until Mid May for spring weather this year. As they say in the BK and in honor, "Forgetaboutit". C to the O to the L to the D. Let's go .. B to the A to the C to the K to the D to the Double O to the R... Snow88 should be laughing right now in that tall tee that likely says, "Go Brooklyn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 April snowfalls one inch or more... Biggest snowstorms...10.2" 3-4th 191510.0" 13th 18759.6" 6th 19828.5" 1st 19246.5" 8-9th 19176.5" 5th 19446.4" 6-7th 19385.0" 9th 19074.2" 8th 19564.0" 7th 20033.3" 8-9th 19163.3" 5-6th 18963.0" 18th 18872.6" 11-13th 19182.5" 4th 19572.5" 4th 18702.5" 5th 18982.2" 9-10th 19422.0" 2nd 18711.9" 14th 19501.7" 12-13th 19401.2" 9th 20001.2" 2nd 19651.0" 12th 18941.0" 15th 18921.0" 4th 1886 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 At least until 4/20 we suffer with cut-offs, stalled boundaries to our south and blocked up pattern in North Atlantic. I think we slowly improve 4/20-4/30, and go back and forth 5/1-5/10 and start to get warm after that. For above 60 F, four days and for above 70 F, two days around 4/23-4/26. Very chilly and wet month ahead. One of the worst 10 Aprils in the last 30 years I'd say is coming. The 6Z 3/29 GFS is virtually no sunshine except for Tuesday and Wednesday this upcoming week for the entire run. Almost looks like a 4/1982 redux pattern in the middle of the run if it adjusts the jets and Arctic High pressure areas. Are we going into the same type of pattern that 4/1982 had ? This is the worst April model run I have seen in my life. The 00Z 3/29 ECMWF and GGEM are just about the ugliest model runs you would ever see for our area. Complete crap weather month en route.... Sorry. Time to add the accompanying smell with that imaginary toilet flush sound I added earlier. I see Arctic air taking over the middle portion of the month with night freezes and barely above freezing 35-40 highs taking over for a possible time around 4/10 to 4/18. Looks serious and real for a very cold wet month. There is no support for the contrary on the models. Show me if you can find it. Am I correct in what I am seeing, pro Met analysis added would be interesting on this. Bud break on trees will happen around 5/5, latest probably on record, full leaf out by 5/15. the late blooming trees will be fully leafed out by Flag Day. We will likely run a 4-5 weeks late bud and leaf out. Pattern and cold waters look extremely anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Unclew i remember a pretty big storm around April 9 1996 - widely varying amounts across LI but some big numbers out in central Suffolk north shore . Can't recall did NYC miss out on that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Unclew i remember a pretty big storm around April 9 1996 - widely varying amounts across LI but some big numbers out in central Suffolk north shore . Can't recall did NYC miss out on that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 that storm caused power outages in Ocean County because of the heavy wet snow and the local radio station was playing christmas music that evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 NEG NAO, +SNFreak21 interestingly though from those maps looks in fact like central park at least may have gotten nothing. N, S, E, and W of NYC but not Central Park itself, so unclew is probably right on, which I should have figured. This was the storm that took Brookhaven's total for the year from the high 70s to over 90. http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 April 1996: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 April 1996: Do you have a larger map of this storm (e.g. entire East coast/NE)? I remember an April snowstorm down in VA where we got about 6". Best winter of my life, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Do you have a larger map of this storm (e.g. entire East coast/NE)? I remember an April snowstorm down in VA where we got about 6". Best winter of my life, no doubt. See above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Looks like snow piles on flag day are a lock! That April 96 storm was incredible. The king of heart attack snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Had 3.9 inches here in April of 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 One more shot of snow next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 No more snow. F-that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 My highs are forecasted in the 60's next week....looks like finally some sustained spring weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 My highs are forecasted in the 60's next week....looks like finally some sustained spring weather Yep 60s for a couple days then back to 40s and rain..springtime on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Latest CFS hinting at slightly below normal April temperatures here which would translate into a lower chance for extended warmth. Probably some short warm intervals to remind you that it's spring before we cool down again behind cold fronts and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Latest CFS hinting at slightly below normal April temperatures here which would translate into a lower chance for extended warmth. It would probably translate into shorter intervals here and there of warm temps before a front or storm cools things down again. CFSv2.NaT2m.20140330.201404.gif Hoping may will bring more long lived warmer temps. After this weekends deluge its looking like a pretty good rainy april. Still should be some nice warmups in between these rainstorms with spotty 60's in warm areas before the next front/ storm as you said makes their way into this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Hoping may will bring more long lived warmer temps. After this weekends deluge its looking like a pretty good rainy april. Still should be some nice warmups in between these rainstorms with spotty 60's in warm areas before the next front/ storm as you said makes their way into this area. The good news is that the average high reaches the mid 60's by later in the month so even some cooler days will feel like spring by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Unclew i remember a pretty big storm around April 9 1996 - widely varying amounts across LI but some big numbers out in central Suffolk north shore . Can't recall did NYC miss out on that ? I had almost all snow with 1.30" of water equivalent but only a half inch of snow...It seemed like the snow that was falling disappeared into the ground...I lived in Brooklyn then but Staten Island had 4" and probably more in the hills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 The 00z ECMWF had ~2.00" of rain for the area spread over a few events. We'll have to watch and see if any of these trend wetter and raise hydrology concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Latest SREF's look pretty juiced for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Looks like a relatively cooler, wetter first half of April at least. A bit of a -NAO this week and then some western ridging beyond that will generally be responsible for this as well as the still vast amount of cold air up north. There will be warmer days but those look to be fairly brief. Will be surprised if NYC doesn't see an April freeze but at the same time temperatures could still average below normal without a freeze occurring. In fact many times things warm up sharply before or after a freeze in April for NYC, but the pattern we're in is far more stable and skews towards cool (not cold) and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 12z ECMWF has rain from Thursday night through Saturday morning, but generally only light rain amounting to ~.50" The low cuts off too far NW for us. Then a long wave trough begins to approach from West for the start of next week. That would bring potentially excessive/flooding rains to the area. Water levels should remain high with the continued light rain chances between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Hmm, DT just posted a GFS map on his Facebook page for April 9. Says it looks like mountain snows for the mid-atlantic but the 32º line looks dangerously close for i95. Can anyone elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Wow at the trough on the euro. The models have been showing a strong coastal storm with the nao falling and the pna rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Hmm, DT just posted a GFS map on his Facebook page for April 9. Says it looks like mountain snows for the mid-atlantic but the 32º line looks dangerously close for i95. Can anyone elaborate? It's 10 days away and subject to enormous change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Wow at the trough on the euro. The models have been showing a strong coastal storm with the nao falling and the pna rising. how is the snow potential you were expecting for this coming weekend lookin ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 how is the snow potential you were expecting for this coming weekend lookin ? April 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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