user13 Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 At least over the last 30 years of winters, some locations around the Northeast than can radiate under the right conditions are warming much faster than NYC. Screen shot 2014-04-18 at 7.38.43 AM.png Screen shot 2014-04-18 at 7.37.56 AM.png Screen shot 2014-04-18 at 7.37.21 AM.png The interesting thing is if you take econometrics you know there are about 5 different best fit lines you can draw on those points. Just eye balling the AC chart Chris, it does not look like the one drawn by the nws has the lowest residual. (Maybe ill put it into Stata and check sometime this week) As for Burlington, they had a big boom in the 90s and early 00s (especially in South Burlington, which is the surrounding area), that seems to coincide with the higher temps due to less radiating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 The interesting thing is if you take econometrics you know there are about 5 different best fit lines you can draw on those points. Just eye balling the AC chart Chris, it does not look like the one drawn by the nws has the lowest residual. (Maybe ill put it into Stata and check sometime this week) As for Burlington, they had a big boom in the 90s and early 00s (especially in South Burlington, which is the surrounding area), that seems to coincide with the higher temps due to less radiating. I guess a combination of factors is keeping NYC Metro from warming as much during the winter as areas of Northern NY State and New England. We have managed to stay in the same plant hardiness zone while areas further north and west have seen more of a change. JFK has also seen more steady temps over the last 30 winters while LGA has seen an increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 Going strictly by the Koppen climate scheme, this is not correct. I think many of us know how well Somerville likes to radiate, but its January normal, which is considerably colder than NYC's, is still only -1.7C which still places it within the -3 to +18C zone. I wouldn't say its "well within" and I wouldn't say that Koppen was all that well thought out (-3 to +18 is a huge range), but based strictly on Koppen, the city and most burbs are Humid Sub-tropical. The closest airports with normals below -3C in January would appear to be Sussex/Andover in Jersey, Poughkeepsie in New York, and Danbury in Connecticut. That range is almost 40F. While Koppen probably has its uses, it is intuitively difficult to accept that NYC has the same climate classification as Sao Paolo, Brazil (Cfa). I have read that the underpinnings of the Koppen scale are an attempt to rate climate by using those temperature and rainfall classification as a surrogate for native vegetation types. It obviously does not succeed everywhere at that goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 That range is almost 40F. While Koppen probably has its uses, it is intuitively difficult to accept that NYC has the same climate classification as Sao Paolo, Brazil (Cfa). I have read that the underpinnings of the Koppen scale are an attempt to rate climate by using those temperature and rainfall classification as a surrogate for native vegetation types. It obviously does not succeed everywhere at that goal. Cfa is a pretty cool climate zone, it's the best of both worlds if you like snow and tropical storms. Of course, Brazil doesn't have that but generally the East side of all continents will be relatively similar everywhere within 25-40 N. In North America it's more like 30-40N due to the Gulf Stream/Gulf of Mexico. NYC has been on the cusp of Humid Continental (Dfa) and Humid Sub-Tropical (Cfa) but it could very well become completely Cfa in 10-20 years. KWWD has warmed quite a bit, the climate now resembles the coastal Southern Maryland region of the 1950's, going by statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 The sensible question that I see at the heart of an occasionally nonsensical debate (at least on this forum) is what is the usefulness of a classification system that lumps disparate locations with widely disparate climates and native vegetation types into the same climate classification. What is the usefulness of a classification system that lumps NYC and parts of the Midwest into the same zone as the gulf coast and Brazil? Maybe it is useful, but don't ask me why. C, D, or whatever, I agree this part of the country has a very interesting climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 NWS New York NY @NWSNewYorkNY Apr 17 But that latest measurable snow at LGA was broken by 0.2" on 4/16. That is now the latest measurable snow (0.1" or greater) since 1945. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 This will be our first retrograding block in quite some time. It means that days 5-10 will see more cooler than normal temps here has two upper lows will cross through the Northeast. Leave it to the NAO to have it first significant drop of 2014 in late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 This will be our first retrograding block in quite some time. It means that days 5-10 will see more cooler than normal temps here has two upper lows will cross through the Northeast. Leave it to the NAO to have it first significant drop of 2014 in late April. f120.gif f180.gif f240.gif Sorry this is a bit OT but that's not a favorable pattern for the Arctic sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 The negative NAO will probably ensure that the s/w trough amplifications are stronger in the medium to long range for the April 20th-30th period. Should see cooler than normal temps for the last 10 days overall. Thereafter, I think we flip to a very warm regime in May, potentially with our first 90s in the beginning third of the month. The cold anomalies across Canada are definitely starting to decrease, and I don't think much will be remaining about 10 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 Sorry this is a bit OT but that's not a favorable pattern for the Arctic sea ice. Things are simply messed up and the temperature gradients are highly mixed as we approach Summer. The recent measurable snow event at NYC is an important clue. East Coast cold pocket looks to continue with multiple backdoor cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 The negative NAO will probably ensure that the s/w trough amplifications are stronger in the medium to long range for the April 20th-30th period. Should see cooler than normal temps for the last 10 days overall. Thereafter, I think we flip to a very warm regime in May, potentially with our first 90s in the beginning third of the month. The cold anomalies across Canada are definitely starting to decrease, and I don't think much will be remaining about 10 days from now. Really 90s in the first third of May? Seems like a stretch to say that this far out and especially this early in the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 This will be our first retrograding block in quite some time. It means that days 5-10 will see more cooler than normal temps here has two upper lows will cross through the Northeast. Leave it to the NAO to have it first significant drop of 2014 in late April. f120.gif f180.gif f240.gif Man this cool pattern is really getting on my nerves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 Really 90s in the first third of May? Seems like a stretch to say that this far out and especially this early in the warm season. Its only happened once in the past 10 years but wouldn't be a huge surprise if it did occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 Depends on what he means by "our". Monmouth and Jersey are certainly more prone to 90s early in the season than the park is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 Man this cool pattern is really getting on my nerves I can't tell if that's sarcasm or if you're serious but most still have a positive anomaly for the month so far and it was like a +3 or 4 prior to these last three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 Can anyone tell me in simple mans words when the 65-70 temps might be here? Specifically on Long Island, Suffolk County. I'm trying to read everything thats said but im not 100% on everything. I have made some predictions of my own from what i have learned here but I'm only right 60% or less of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 41 was my high today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 Can anyone tell me in simple mans words when the 65-70 temps might be here? Specifically on Long Island, Suffolk County. I'm trying to read everything thats said but im not 100% on everything. I have made some predictions of my own from what i have learned here but I'm only right 60% or less of the time. By looking at the long range forecast, I predict very late April-early May. But it will be on and off. According to Accuweather, the first 70 degree day for stony brook is may 11th. IMHO, accuweather is much more accurate than weather.com, so I use their forecasts and put my own insight into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 Today looks like a warm mid to upper 60's downslope day that will be nice right down to the South Shore beaches which were so cool with the onshore flow earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 54 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 This will be our first retrograding block in quite some time. It means that days 5-10 will see more cooler than normal temps here has two upper lows will cross through the Northeast. Leave it to the NAO to have it first significant drop of 2014 in late April. f120.gif f180.gif f240.gif that's also a positive arctic dipole anomaly. we had the opposite going into last spring/summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 that's also a positive arctic dipole anomaly. we had the opposite going into last spring/summer It will also be our first -1 or lower -NAO since 10-23-13. But it looks transient as the blocking retrogrades south to Hudson Bay and the heights fall over Greenland to start May. We haven't seen many 6 month gaps between -1 NAO readings during the 2000's so far. 2013 10 23 -1.144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 By looking at the long range forecast, I predict very late April-early May. But it will be on and off. According to Accuweather, the first 70 degree day for stony brook is may 11th. IMHO, accuweather is much more accurate than weather.com, so I use their forecasts and put my own insight into it. Very nice, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 Quiet today lol... temps 15 degrees lower today than yesterday with an east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 The Euro keeps things wet and unsettled starting late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 The negative NAO will probably ensure that the s/w trough amplifications are stronger in the medium to long range for the April 20th-30th period. Should see cooler than normal temps for the last 10 days overall. Thereafter, I think we flip to a very warm regime in May, potentially with our first 90s in the beginning third of the month. The cold anomalies across Canada are definitely starting to decrease, and I don't think much will be remaining about 10 days from now. can you back this up with something ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Another cool day with high of 52 and low of 35. The endless frost and freeze advisories are keeping things blooming pretty delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 The Euro and ensembles are picking up on a potentially rainy end to April and start to May with a slow moving cutoff scenario. This is a pattern that we have seen in the past when we have good blocking this time of year. Also notice how our warm ups like we saw a week ago don't gain traction and are followed by colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 The Euro and ensembles are picking up on a potentially rainy end to April and start to May with a slow moving cutoff scenario. This is a pattern that we have seen in the past when we have good blocking this time of year. Also notice how our warm ups like we saw a week ago don't gain traction and are followed by colder temps. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif tn72503_90.gif Yup, the 00z ECMWF has periods of rain from Sunday afternoon through Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Yup, the 00z ECMWF has periods of rain from Sunday afternoon through Thursday. Before that, the 0z Euro has widespread 70s on Saturday, with west winds and 850mb temps around 9C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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