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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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The argument against a tucked in solution is very strong right now and I think the western trend is on its last leg. A lot of that has to do with the initial shortwave sliding southeast and becoming quite elongated and broad. This is not what you want to see ahead of a potential amplified storm for the eastern seaboard.

 

f24.gif

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With respect to the question concerning December cases, one should not take the numbers literally. Such cases can provide broad insight, not exact details.

 

The insight is that there are cases where storms brought moderate/significant snows to eastern Long Island and focused their heaviest accumulations on the vicinity of Cape Cod/eastern Massachusetts, with lesser amounts falling north and west of those areas. In terms of this storm, one can say that there is a reasonably possibility of such an outcome. Actual details remain yet to be resolved and there is still opportunity for some other solutions.

 

My thinking right now is that something between the 0z ECMWF and 6z GFS seems plausible. Considering additonal guidance, including but not limited to the GFS and ECMWF ensembles with some of the past cases, my initial thinking is that the best potential for several inches or more of snow lies across Suffolk County/eastern Connecticut in terms of the NYC metro area. At the same time, there is still a chance that several inches of snow could reach the City and adjacent suburbs, but that's still a lower probability outcome. There is enough uncertainty to allow for some changes.

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Not sure if it was already mentioned but the 6z GFS showed significant improvement with the western ridge (more amplified) relative to 0z as well...Seems like the PNA finally kicking in here...

 

I like the improvements there but I think it's becoming almost a lost cause at this point due to the trajectory of the incoming disturbance and jet streak. When you glance at the NAM you can see the problem is not the ridge out west but the way that things are aligned over the Central US. The incoming jet streak from the international border around 30 hours is heading southeast too fast in my opinion to allow for an amplified solution or rapid cyclogenesis at our latitude on the east coast. Instead it moves southeast and then the cyclogenesis doesn't occur until the incoming jet streak and disturbance phases -- and that occurs too far north for us. That's when you're seeing the mid level centers close off and the CCB develop on the models. 

 

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Earth a quick question. Would the Euro idea of an initial double barreled low before

consolidating into a single bomb be a form of the Fujiwhara effect or does that only pertain to tropical or extratropical cyclones? I saw it mentioned in an earlier update from Upton and was curious. Thanks

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The argument against a tucked in solution is very strong right now and I think the western trend is on its last leg. A lot of that has to do with the initial shortwave sliding southeast and becoming quite elongated and broad. This is not what you want to see ahead of a potential amplified storm for the eastern seaboard.

f24.gif

The way we get a good snowfall out of this is with an inverted trough, IMO.

Something similar to what happened last year in March.

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I like the improvements there but I think it's becoming almost a lost cause at this point due to the trajectory of the incoming disturbance and jet streak. When you glance at the NAM you can see the problem is not the ridge out west but the way that things are aligned over the Central US. The incoming jet streak from the international border around 30 hours is heading southeast too fast in my opinion to allow for an amplified solution or rapid cyclogenesis at our latitude on the east coast. Instead it moves southeast and then the cyclogenesis doesn't occur until the incoming jet streak and disturbance phases -- and that occurs too far north for us. That's when you're seeing the mid level centers close off and the CCB develop on the models. 

 

f42.gif

A Neutral NAO would have done the trick don't you think?

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I like the improvements there but I think it's becoming almost a lost cause at this point due to the trajectory of the incoming disturbance and jet streak. When you glance at the NAM you can see the problem is not the ridge out west but the way that things are aligned over the Central US. The incoming jet streak from the international border around 30 hours is heading southeast too fast in my opinion to allow for an amplified solution or rapid cyclogenesis at our latitude on the east coast. Instead it moves southeast and then the cyclogenesis doesn't occur until the incoming jet streak and disturbance phases -- and that occurs too far north for us. That's when you're seeing the mid level centers close off and the CCB develop on the models. 

 

f42.gif

Good points. Just to be clear I haven't been on board with a 'tucked in' track since we started tracking this--I've always favored BM-east. So I'm not expecting a significant jump west, given the recent shifts. I am however leaning heavily on gradual shifts to the west. Right now I prefer the 0z euro,  and think a 50 mile shift west of that type of solution still quite possible.

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