SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The fun with weather forecasting is trying to solve the puzzle, but obviously we hope to get a nice reward for solving it. The only sad thing is that this threat will definitely mark the end of snow threats until December or November or October lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm seeing some positive changes on the GFS thus far, the energy up in Canada is positioned farther West. (more room to amplify eventually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 very nice improvements on 18z so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 wow low is def further west and tuck in to sc coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still not quite there with the mid level jet orientation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 hr 93 low just south of OBX….snow breaking out all over mid-atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 very nice improvements on 18z so far... In what way exactly do you think the models have improved? I'm not arguing with you, I'm just asking you to back up your statement with reasoning. Are these the models we were just talking about or are these new models just being released? B/c according to a lot of posts the latest models seem to have been a disappointment for snow lovers. Keep in mind this would be like Wednesday for the other storms so there's plenty of time for more trends to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 In what way exactly do you think the models have improved? I'm not arguing with you, I'm just asking you to back up your statement with reasoning. Are these the models we were just talking about or are these new models just being released? B/c according to a lot of posts the latest models seem to have been a disappointment for snow lovers. Keep in mind this would be like Wednesday for the other storms so there's plenty of time for more trends to take place. 18z GFS running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Definitely an improvement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Low is actually in pretty much the same spot, just stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still going SE of 40/70 BM on the 18z GFS. Phased 250mb jet streaks still offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 In what way exactly do you think the models have improved? I'm not arguing with you, I'm just asking you to back up your statement with reasoning. Are these the models we were just talking about or are these new models just being released? B/c according to a lot of posts the latest models seem to have been a disappointment for snow lovers. Keep in mind this would be like Wednesday for the other storms so there's plenty of time for more trends to take place. higher hgts along the coast…pac sw was slower…energy was more consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 In the end, it looks basically the same exact track just stronger. To be honest, it was a SLIGHT improvement if any. Still to far off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You see that little mini ULL in SE Canada? The old models that hit us hard, a lot of them phased that in with the shortwave that dives out of Canada, look at last night's 00z GGEM for example..Wonder if that could be a wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zs633666 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSLP charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 In the end, it looks basically the same exact track just stronger. To be honest, it was a SLIGHT improvement if any. Still to far off shore. your focusing on the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSL charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Their are better changes, but overall the track is the same. It was one run of the 18z GFS. Won't think anything of it unless the 00z models continue it. your focusing on the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 In the end, it looks basically the same exact track just stronger. To be honest, it was a SLIGHT improvement if any. Still to far off shore. Please stop posting the same damn thing over and over and over and over. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 About a 50 mile NW shift with the precip shield over the Carolinas and Virginia and off shore the Carolinas and Virginia, but not much real change up here with the precip shield. I will take that shift though as being something good. Interestingly, there is about a 50 mile shift west with the precip chield to our north near Maine as well. This is all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Large improvement this run, ignore the surface reflections for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It tucked the low in closer down south. Exactly what Earthlight said needs to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What the gfs shows is how little changes can really affect things in the big picture. It's much stronger this run and it's further to the west for sure. Changes aloft are more important than the surface right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSLP charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface. That's why all model sites should follow the PSU lead and have the two panels side by side in one frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark Ensembles should be interesting then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What the gfs shows is how little changes can really affect things in the big picture. It's much stronger this run and it's further to the west for sure. Changes aloft are more important than the surface right now. Once again the changes in the 500mb might have been better. But it was not further west. I had both the 12z and 18z pulled up, it was almost exactly the same. Only 18z was much stronger from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 To my mostly untrained eye, the following comparison looks weird. The surface low is attended by that random vortmax offshore, which strikes me as the equivalence of a rogue QPF bomb. In a textbook, at least, wouldn't the ML and surface lows be closer to the eastern flank of the UL trough axis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Once again the changes in the 500mb might have been better. But it was not further west. I had both the 12z and 18z pulled up, it was almost exactly the same. Only 18z was much stronger from the start. It's not tucked in enough near the SE Coast early on so it escapes too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark Right-rear quad of 250mb Jet streak and 500mb vortmax pass SE of the BM. The slp make sense to me.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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