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March 25-27 2014 potential storm...


famartin

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Could someone please comment on timing of storm as currently modeled? I'm flying into Philly late Tuesday night from Dallas and I'm wondering how my chances of landing at PHL are looking. Thanks!

Not great.  If the Euro is right, forgetaboutit.

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EURO Control is nuts, again. Some epic members.

You mean its back to being nuts after having been well east.  Edit:  Actually its about the same as the Euro op. 

 

The one thing this winter has proven is that no model is fool-proof, infallible, or perfect.  Even the mighty Euro.  And even overall consensus can end up being wrong from just 72 hours out.

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You mean its back to being nuts after having been well east.  Edit:  Actually its about the same as the Euro op. 

 

The one thing this winter has proven is that no model is fool-proof, infallible, or perfect.  Even the mighty Euro.  And even overall consensus can end up being wrong from just 72 hours out.

Debbie downer! just kidding you are the voice of reason :D

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I think I just guaranteed we get hammered.........I just bought a new WRX and they come with summer/performance tires.  Will be waiting until fall to get good all seasons for it.  Looks like I'll have to put in vacation for the 25th and 26th just in case lol.  By the way it's a WHITE hatchback....not that any of us like that color or anything...... :snowman:  :P  (I wanted to wait a bit but the 2014 is not made anymore so it was either get it now or risk not being able to find one, or at least the style/color I wanted....and this was already like choice C lol)

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WPC has encouraging words

WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE. THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURAL BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.

ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDING THE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS PARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN HIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMS TO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING, INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH A STORM.
[/indent]
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Tony (Rainshadow) has posted elsewhere, that he believes that the "tucked in" models (12Z Euro and 0Z GGEM) to be suffering badly from convective feedback.

 

I have noticed that dual low structure, it seems once the phase is occurring the models are bending the isobars closer to the coast and developing a separate low closer to us. Like the GGEM. The 12z EURO showed this yesterday as well. It actually seems that the initial southern low hurts our chances as it kind of sets the baroclinic zone farther out to sea. Even if it is convective feedback, is something like this possible regardless? 

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I have noticed that dual low structure, it seems once the phase is occurring the models are bending the isobars closer to the coast and developing a separate low closer to us. Like the GGEM. The 12z EURO showed this yesterday as well. It actually seems that the initial southern low hurts our chances as it kind of sets the baroclinic zone farther out to sea. Even if it is convective feedback, is something like this possible regardless? 

If its convective feedback, then no.

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