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March 25-27 2014 potential storm...


famartin

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WPC for next week


MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED UPON A MORE COMPATABLE/WELL CLUSTERED SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. THIS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PATTERN AS AN ERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ERN PAC/ALASKA REX BLOCK...WITH RIDGING BUILDING AND WORKING INTO THE WRN US IN BETWEEN.

IN THIS PATTERN THERE MEANWHILE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MARCH. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR WRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM INTENSIFICATION TUE-WED GIVES THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THE HIGHEST THREAT OF MEANINGFUL LATE SEASON SNOW/WIND.

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Alot of the precip locally, especially down by DC, is due to the phase happening right nearby.  A lot of models try to develop a double low structure for a little while as it phases.  The main differences between the GFS whiff and the Euro hit is the phase location, with the GFS obviously just a bit further east than the EC.  The low track down by and south of Hatteras is actually just about identical between the two.

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Alot of the precip locally, especially down by DC, is due to the phase happening right nearby.  A lot of models try to develop a double low structure for a little while as it phases.  The main differences between the GFS whiff and the Euro hit is the phase location, with the GFS obviously just a bit further east than the EC.  The low track down by and south of Hatteras is actually just about identical between the two.

 

Thanks for the analysis.  So close and there is plenty of time.

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#25

1 minute ago

all i say aout the euro ens is....../ OOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMGGGGG.... __________________________________ 1000mb just east of the outer banks @ 132 .1"-.25" over us.. 996 over the BM @ 138.... .25-.5" frozen over western NJ and points west.850's & thickness well offshore.... 142-992 over the BM. .1-.25" over us..

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