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March 25-26 storm potential


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#386
SnoSki14

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Let's hope the tug and pull NW is real as that can be a huge savior for us. 



#387
David-LI

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How much precip on the GGEM

#388
IsentropicLift

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From 980mb south of the benchmark

 

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

To 959mb in the Gulf of Maine 12 hours later

 

GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif



#389
NutleyBlizzard

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The GGEM drags this storm NW, essentially getting tugged back west by the polar energy.

 

12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_C

 

12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_C

 

With no blocking, its threading the needle for us; what else is new? Just one of many scenarios that could play out. The canadian pretty much shows best case scenario. Hopefully the canadian is onto something. If the EURO and GFS start showing this depiction in future runs, this place will explode! :popcorn:



#390
IsentropicLift

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The 12z GGEM starts us out with some nice light snow beginning around hr 129 before the PV fully phases in, almost like a pre before a tropical system.



#391
IsentropicLift

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With no blocking, its threading the needle for us; what else is new? Just one of many scenarios that could play out. The canadian pretty much shows best case scenario. Hopefully the canadian is onto something. If the EURO and GFS start showing this depiction in future runs, this place will explode! :popcorn:

Give me a storm where we aren't threading the needle? Even Boxing Day threaded the needle to some extent.



#392
REDMK6GLI

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Give me a storm where we aren't threading the needle? Even Boxing Day threaded the needle to some extent.

We almost missed that one due to too much blocking

#393
jm1220

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The GGEM is not, I repeat NOT OUT TO SEA

 

595_100.gif

This is not, I repeat NOT A DRILL.



#394
NutleyBlizzard

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Give me a storm where we aren't threading the needle? Even Boxing Day threaded the needle to some extent.

It stinks to live on the coastal plain. It's a crapshoot every time.



#395
IsentropicLift

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GGEM fully closes off at H5 hour 141.



#396
jm1220

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Give me a storm where we aren't threading the needle? Even Boxing Day threaded the needle to some extent.

Every storm at this latitude "threads the needle" to some extent. There aren't types of storms that are automatic big snow producers here like SWFEs are for New England or cutters for the Great Lakes.



#397
IsentropicLift

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It stinks to live on the coastal plain. It's a crapshoot every time.

Risk/Reward, no other part of the country gets the dynamic snow events like we do. Sure the mid-west has blizzards but they are more from over running or intense cutters.



#398
IsentropicLift

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The core of the CCB sits just offshore on the GGEM, fringes the twin forks and annihilates Cape Cod.



#399
IsentropicLift

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P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif



#400
JSantanaNYC

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The ggem could show a blizzard for many runs and i still wouldnt believe in it after last storm lol.. panic.

#401
Snow88

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f144.gif



#402
IsentropicLift

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For one of the more experienced posters/mets here, does this have shades of March 01'? Saw some grumblings about it in the New England forum.



#403
IsentropicLift

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QPF on the GGEM - Basically very little or next to nothing west of KMMU, 1"+ east of NYC.

 

Honestly QPF breakdown isn't too dissimilar from Boxing Day, just a tick east.



#404
REDMK6GLI

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For one of the more experienced posters/mets here, does this have shades of March 01'? Saw some grumblings about it in the New England forum.


Unless this thing stalls and hangs around for 36 hours i dont think 01' IMO would be a correct comparison. Better comparison would be boxing day blizzard and 2/13

#405
NutleyBlizzard

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The ggem could show a blizzard for many runs and i still wouldnt believe in it after last storm lol.. panic.

Problem is, NO model has been good this winter. The last three storms that missed us for example; each one had a depiction at one time from a different model showing a HECS for our area, and each time it was dead wrong. Can only hope the canadian has a better handle on this, cause no model is riding the hot hand right now.



#406
IsentropicLift

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Unless this thing stalls and hangs around for 36 hours i dont think 01' IMO would be a correct comparison. Better comparison would be boxing day blizzard and 2/13

I said one of the more experienced posters :lol: j/k

 

It has more to do with the upper air pattern over the Midwest.



#407
Snow88

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GEFS

 

f132.gif



#408
David-LI

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GEFS

 

f132.gif

some of them show a nice hit. which one is the mean though?



#409
Snow88

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Check out the 12z GGEM Ensembles. Some are monsters.

 

http://weather.gc.ca...ime=12&Type=pnm

http://weather.gc.ca...ime=12&Type=pnm



#410
IsentropicLift

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The mean track on the 12z GEFS is still way offshore.



#411
REDMK6GLI

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I said one of the more experienced posters :lol: j/k

It has more to do with the upper air pattern over the Midwest.


Welp that means im out! :lol:

#412
IsentropicLift

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Check out the 12z GGEM Ensembles. Some are monsters.

 

http://weather.gc.ca...ime=12&Type=pnm

http://weather.gc.ca...ime=12&Type=pnm

My favorite is the one showing a 972mb low kissing ACY.



#413
REDMK6GLI

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My favorite is the one showing a 972mb low kissing ACY.

Yea JP your area, surprise! Just found yanksfan favorite solution ;)

#414
Snow88

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My favorite is the one showing a 972mb low kissing ACY.

Mine is 965 just inside the BM.



#415
IsentropicLift

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Yea JP your area, surprise! Just found yanksfan favorite solution ;)

Why wouldn't I want the solution that benefits me the most? Just sayin...



#416
Weathergun

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12z UKMET huge bomb just to bit too far east:

 

23wo12s.jpg

 

2wbupld.jpg



#417
SnowGoose69

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This is a classic storm where the GFS is going to be useless, as a matter of fact I'm shocked to see it has a storm at all in this sort of setup at this range...this is definitely one where I'd ride the Euro/Ensembles the entire way.



#418
jm1220

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12z UKMET huge bomb just to bit too far east:

 

23wo12s.jpg

 

2wbupld.jpg

Yep, look how fast and progressive the pattern is and the neutral tilt on the trough. That has nowhere to go but the boot out to sea.



#419
REDMK6GLI

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Why wouldn't I want the solution that benefits me the most? Just sayin...


I dont care about your backyard to me it can be a bottomless abyss, i need the snow since severe weather season shafts me EVERY year. Spread the wealth yanks and dont be hog! :lol: i know this is banter btw mods ;)

#420
REDMK6GLI

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This is a classic storm where the GFS is going to be useless, as a matter of fact I'm shocked to see it has a storm at all in this sort of setup at this range...this is definitely one where I'd ride the Euro/Ensembles the entire way.

IMO the EURO and its entire suite makes it living on these big phasing miller A's. it nailed the 2/13 storm and that was a pretty sizable miller A as well.



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