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2014 Severe Storm season


downeastnc

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Figure as we look to warm up ( hopefully ) we need a thread to discus mid to long range severe threats as they begin to show up.  We can use event specific threads to handle events once we get to within a day or so of the event.

 

Its actually been a fairly active year so far in most places in the SE after a pretty quiet couple of years following the insanity that was 2011.So anyone want to guess when the first Mod and High risk in the SE will be.....outside of the more traditional Dixie Alley.

 

 

 

 

 

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Saturday getting more interesting

 

post-141-0-84813100-1395950308_thumb.gif

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES/CAROLINAS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS SATURDAY TO THE
   EAST OF AN INLAND-DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
   WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A NEUTRAL-TILT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT ON SATURDAY FROM THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS BY
   EARLY SUNDAY. ISOLATED/DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE WESTERN STATES...WHILE TSTMS /INCLUDING SOME SEVERE
   RISK/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
   AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND AN
   ASSOCIATED EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...SCATTERED/POTENTIALLY
   NUMEROUS CORRIDORS OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS A BROAD PART OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE
   PREVALENCE OF EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO HINDER
   APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION...FURTHER COMPOUNDED BY THE EXPECTED
   WEAKNESS OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE WARM SECTOR.
   REGARDLESS...THE OVERALL SCENARIO/SOME HEATING MAY HELP SUSTAIN
   EARLY DAY STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FL/GA...WHILE A MODEST
   AFTERNOON UPSWING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSITY COULD OCCUR ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/FAR SOUTHEAST VA. LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS.
 

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This season may not be the train wreck some were talking about. All this -AO/NAO talk was premature cliff diving. It's still just March! The active storm track is notable. Winter storms turn into spring storms. Now I agree the Plains may have an off season, but this is the South.

 

Mid South is probably favored. Track is not really into the Deep South, and the cool Northeast may have impacts east of the Apps. First high risk may be the Mid South, hopefully not into the Tennessee Valley. I love storm chasing, but don't like it near my family. Perhaps selfish, but at least I'm honest.

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This season may not be the train wreck some were talking about. All this -AO/NAO talk was premature cliff diving. It's still just March! The active storm track is notable. Winter storms turn into spring storms. Now I agree the Plains may have an off season, but this is the South.

 

Mid South is probably favored. Track is not really into the Deep South, and the cool Northeast may have impacts east of the Apps. First high risk may be the Mid South, hopefully not into the Tennessee Valley. I love storm chasing, but don't like it near my family. Perhaps selfish, but at least I'm honest.

 

I am a wind junkie, I could live without snow but not storms and to me the best time of the year is now until the end of hurricane season. Obviously IMBY is not where I hope to run into it but I had a EF1 miss the house by 300 yrds March 27th 209 and then way back when I was 12 ( on this date march 28th ) in 1984 the F4 monster and strongest tornado of that entire outbreak missed my house by a little over a mile. the debris was raining down and we had winds well into the hurricane force range..and that was with it missing us by a mile. I saw first hand what that kind of tornado can do as we where involved with the cleanup effort and we had family that was hit by it luckily they all survived. 

 

I am not to up on tomorrow looks like a lot of trash etc and typically here we need good sun to really juice it up but I am not working so if anything organized and close does form I will try to get somewhere to see it.

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This season may not be the train wreck some were talking about. All this -AO/NAO talk was premature cliff diving. It's still just March! The active storm track is notable. Winter storms turn into spring storms. Now I agree the Plains may have an off season, but this is the South.

 

Mid South is probably favored. Track is not really into the Deep South, and the cool Northeast may have impacts east of the Apps. First high risk may be the Mid South, hopefully not into the Tennessee Valley. I love storm chasing, but don't like it near my family. Perhaps selfish, but at least I'm honest.

 

 IF the great CAD of the winter were to maintain itself this spring, I would guess that the spring severe season in at least CAD favored areas of NC/SC/GA would be quieter than average. That would be good news for those who'd rather have it quiet overall. We'll see. Let's first see if the great CAD will continue with high frequency.

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GSP AFD

Greenville

 

SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES BECOME VERY INTERESTING...BECOMING
SIMILAR TO THE CLASSIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
H5...A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS...CLOSING OFF OVER KY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL JET TRACKS SW TO
NE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A SIGNIFICANT
LLVL JET CUTS S TO NW ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. AT THE
SFC...THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM EASTERN TN ACROSS THE
MIDDLE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT MID DAY 0-1 KM HELICITY
WILL RANGE AROUND 250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND ISENTROPIC FORCED RAIN WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT HEATING...POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 60S TO L70S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SHERB AND EHI WILL REMAIN AROUND 0.75.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH EMBEDDED
TSRA...WITH SVR TSRA POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MTNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. IF...FOR SOME REASON...CLOUD COVER THINS AND
TEMPERATURES SURGE WARMER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SUITABLE TO SUPERCELLS...WITH ISO TORNADOES...MULTIPLE WIND DAMAGE
EVENTS AND LARGE HAIL.

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GSP AFD

Greenville

SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES BECOME VERY INTERESTING...BECOMING

SIMILAR TO THE CLASSIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT

H5...A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS...CLOSING OFF OVER KY

DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL JET TRACKS SW TO

NE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A SIGNIFICANT

LLVL JET CUTS S TO NW ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. AT THE

SFC...THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM EASTERN TN ACROSS THE

MIDDLE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD

FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST HOURS DURING THE

AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT MID DAY 0-1 KM HELICITY

WILL RANGE AROUND 250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND ISENTROPIC FORCED RAIN WILL EXIST ACROSS

THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL

LIMIT HEATING...POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 60S TO L70S. FORECAST

SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SHERB AND EHI WILL REMAIN AROUND 0.75.

THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH EMBEDDED

TSRA...WITH SVR TSRA POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MTNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO

HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. IF...FOR SOME REASON...CLOUD COVER THINS AND

TEMPERATURES SURGE WARMER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME

SUITABLE TO SUPERCELLS...WITH ISO TORNADOES...MULTIPLE WIND DAMAGE

EVENTS AND LARGE HAIL.

Looks like tomorrow is going down the crapper!

I think the clouds will hang on in the damming areas and tstorms will be at a minimum in the western Carolinas

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Looks like tomorrow is going down the crapper!

I think the clouds will hang on in the damming areas and tstorms will be at a minimum in the western Carolinas

Hence... "If for some reason."  Why would a forecaster say that?  

 

But, "You never know."

 

BTW- Had about .0185" of rain today... best guess.

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Latest HWO doesn't rule them out, though...

 

1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THEREGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANYSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGINGWINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY STILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. SPOTTERS AREENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THESTORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
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mcd0228.gif

 

 

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC...FAR NERN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 292331Z - 300130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO EXIST FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
   MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL NC.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM
   NEAR FLORENCE SC NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...WHERE SURFACE MAP SHOWS
   PRESSURE FALLS AND LIGHT BUT SELY SURFACE WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE
   FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT MAX AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
   ABOUT 2 HOURS OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A RATHER GOOD
   JOB AT FORECASTING THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS...WHICH THEY HAVE
   DISSIPATING BY AROUND 02Z OVER N CNTRL NC.

   GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GENERALLY LIGHT
   SURFACE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL IS LIKELY
   MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS 0-1 SRH VALUES AROUND 100 M2/S2
   SUGGEST BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR IF SOME OF THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN PERSIST. RADAR HAS SHOWN LOOSE CYCLONIC
   CIRCULATIONS RECENTLY.
 

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805 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

TORNADO WATCH 44 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC015-017-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-091-093-

101-105-107-117-127-131-135-145-147-155-163-165-181-183-185-191-

195-300500-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0044.140330T0005Z-140330T0500Z/

NC

. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERTIE BLADEN CHATHAM

COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN

DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN

GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX

HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE

JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR

MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON

ORANGE PERSON PITT

ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND

VANCE WAKE WARREN

WAYNE WILSON

SCC033-069-300500-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0044.140330T0005Z-140330T0500Z/

SC

. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DILLON MARLBORO

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