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March 12th-14th 2014 potential storm


famartin

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No one lives and dies with one model run, but not one piece of data shows or really has shown snow for our region lately. When looking at all the data and current observations you can usually estimate wave lengths...when I mention a possible winter event 17-18th I'm not taking the GFS at 204 hours at face value...im simply saying that based on the current spacing of the short waves there could be something around that time frame...

I dont want to cluster up this thread with this fantasy storm stuff...well see if something is on the table in a few days.

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I love doorman's positivity. However, In the WPC 500mb map you posted above, that is not a good track for Philly. The only way that would have worked was if we had a semi block which could of allowed the trough to dig far enough south to close off NE of us for a time...That ain't happening most likely. By the time it is cold enough in the city the precip is out of here. Way too much ridging out ahead of it, and while it does negatively tilt, it does way too late and not deep enough. It might have been a better track in January, but not gonna work in March. Could this change? Maybe, I'm just not seeing it at the moment FOR THE CITY. I do believe the Poconos and the far N/W burbs could see a decent snowfall however. 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

 

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH, AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS EVENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS ALL RAIN FOR
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE SNOW MAY
REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE. AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST,
COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WOULD THEN
LIKELY BEGIN TRANSITIONING THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF.


WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
UP QUITE A BIT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD EASILY GUSTY 25-30 MPH OR HIGHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

 

 

I'm not in this world to live up to your expectations and you're not in this world to live up to mine.

 
 
 
 
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didnt the GFS lose the system last night at this time????

 

What it did last night doesn't mean anything, we're 24 hours closer to the event. Plus, considering the 18z GFS was the only glimmer of hope and now it has backed off of that idea, kinda sucks.... In fact I'd argue that the GFS has been pretty good. It NEVER brought out western energy as one piece while the EURO kept insisting all of it would come out. GFS won in that regard since it looks like the energy will be splitting. Not arguing, but not one single piece of numerical data has any snow except maybe some back end snow showers/flurries for Philly. Not saying the burbs don't have a shot though. I'm enjoying your posts though!

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