mob1 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I do not think there is a 'Bay of Bengal' thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44610-north-indian-ocean-cyclone-season-2014/#entry3075636 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I do not think there is a 'Bay of Bengal' thread. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A Vongfong is really trying to hit its MPI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A Vongfong is really trying to hit its MPI Ouch - Satcon mean estimate of 177 kts sustained. That's ~204 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Not bad on the Haiyanometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Would the re-curve theory apply for this storm (re-curving pacific tropical cyclones forcing Cp airmass into CONUS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 This is like some Day After Tomorrow stuff. Absolutely incredible. Courtesy to atro_reid: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Vongfong video from the International Space Station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Looks like the AFB on Okinawa gusted to 89mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yet another spectacular super typhoon has emerged in the WPAC. Not quite as spectacular as vongfong but its making a run at it in sat images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Storms like Nuri make me wish we had recon in the West Pacific still. Obviously the size of the eye is much smaller than that of Vongfong's, but core convection is deeper. Earlier microwave pass: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Wow, that's about as hawt as it gets! While I'm sure Vongfong had a lower minimum central pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if Nuri is rivaling Vongfongs max winds with such a tight core. As you say, we would really need recon to know for sure. Also, ADT looks good: UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 02 NOV 2014 Time : 173000 UTC Lat : 17:52:08 N Lon : 132:21:46 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 7.5 / 903.3mb/155.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 7.4 7.3 7.3 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km Center Temp : +10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.0C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 122km - Environmental MSLP : 1006mb Satellite Name : MTSAT2 Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.4 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 JTWC now forecast it to get to a sustained 170kts which is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 JTWC now forecast it to get to a sustained 170kts which is ridiculous. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Looks like it maxed out at 155kt. Down to 145 kt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The 12z ECMWF predicts Typhoon Nuri to be a 915mb extratropical storm near the Kamchatka Penninsula, Saturday. That's close to the record for the hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Looking at a potential 2+ bergeron beast. Best I have seen since I have been here is a 936 monster that formed mid winter 2 years ago off the Kuroshio Current and weakened as it tracked into the W Bering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Looking at a potential 2+ bergeron beast. Best I have seen since I have been here is a 936 monster that formed mid winter 2 years ago off the Kuroshio Current and weakened as it tracked into the W Bering. I'm not sure exactly what one "bergeron" is in terms of some sort of measurement. Wow 155kt typhoon that is a beast. Typhoon Nuri, JTWC analysis points at or above 145 kt. 12 17.90 132.30 11/02/18Z 155 - SUPER TYPHOON-5 13 18.50 132.60 11/03/00Z 155 - SUPER TYPHOON-5 14 19.00 132.90 11/03/06Z 155 - SUPER TYPHOON-5 15 19.80 133.60 11/03/12Z 155 - SUPER TYPHOON-5 16 20.50 134.30 11/03/18Z 145 - SUPER TYPHOON-5 Last winter, about Christmastime, there was a 930ish low near Ireland. I believe that one was the lowest non-tropical northern storm that I've seen on any weather map since I've been checking weather maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Looking at a potential 2+ bergeron beast. Best I have seen since I have been here is a 936 monster that formed mid winter 2 years ago off the Kuroshio Current and weakened as it tracked into the W Bering. I am shocked no one has talked about this storm beyond what you stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The 12z ECMWF predicts Typhoon Nuri to be a 915mb extratropical storm near the Kamchatka Penninsula, Saturday. That's close to the record for the hemisphere.That has to be over done. I can't see how a non pure tropical system gets below 925.The ECMWF classically over did Irene at the latitude of New Jersey at 933 that led to the over hysteria for that storm. Which then caused massive complacency during Sandy. Regardless this typhoon has major implications for nearly the entire northern hemisphere the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 That has to be over done. I can't see how a non pure tropical system gets below 925. The ECMWF classically over did Irene at the latitude of New Jersey at 933 that led to the over hysteria for that storm. Which then caused massive complacency during Sandy. Regardless this typhoon has major implications for nearly the entire northern hemisphere the next few weeks Non-tropical 914mb in the North Atlantic, 1993: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993 As for the ex-Nuri hybrid, ECMWF has backed off to about 920mb, which is in good agreement with the hi-res parallel GFS and I believe is attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The latest 12Z operational GFS run actually takes extratropical Nuri down to 911 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Non-tropical 914mb in the North Atlantic, 1993: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993 As for the ex-Nuri hybrid, ECMWF has backed off to about 920mb, which is in good agreement with the hi-res parallel GFS and I believe is attainable. Hard to believe without actual obs. However there were buoys that pegged at 920 which is truly amazing. It could have been even lower then estimated, no one will ever no for sure Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Ryan Maue tweeted this ECMWF ensemble minimum of 907 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Are there any NWS text products discussing, in some detail, the intensification mechanisms for post-tropical Nuri? I can't immediately find any, but the best links are unusually the hidden ones. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 ET Nuri is intensifying rapidly now as it phases with another low to its NW. As of 12 UTC pressure down 964mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Looks like Shemya is already gusting to 92mph! Sustained at 68 mph! http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/index.php?index=bering (time-sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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