IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The GFS recurves the Super Typhoon well east of Japan. Quite a rapid intensification episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I think that Genevieve likely reached its peak intensity around 14Z based on the thickness of the coldest cloud tops in the CDO. Since then, the convection surrounding the eye has warmed and has become less symmetrical, and in the most recent frames the once-very-warm eye has begun cooling as well. I fully expect an outer eyewall to begin forming within the next 24 hours based on the strengthening of a large band in the southern quadrant. Otherwise, conditions should remain favorable and SSTs will be as warm as or warmer than they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 It looks like Hurricane John in 1994 was the strongest storm to move through the central Pacific and also the longest lived TC on record. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_%281994%29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 What a slow peak season…we've gone more than a month without activity, and only with the recent Kelvin wave have we seen an uptick with TS Fenghshen. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42483-atlantic-tropical-action-2014/?p=3050953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 What a slow peak season…we've gone more than a month without activity, and only with the recent Kelvin wave have we seen an uptick with TS Fenghshen. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42483-atlantic-tropical-action-2014/?p=3050953 Quietest August on record for the WPAC. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2790 Record quiet spell ends in Western Pacific A remarkable month-long hiatus in tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific finally came to an end on Sunday, when Tropical Storm Fengshen formed a few hundred miles south of Japan. Prior to Fengshen, the last named storm to form in the Western Pacific was Tropical Storm Nakri, which formed on July 29 (according the Japan Meteorological Agency, the official agency responsible for typhoon warnings) or August 2 (according the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.) Typhoon Genevieve, which crossed the Dateline into the Western Pacific on August 7, originated in the Eastern Pacific, so doesn't count as a named storm originating in the Western Pacific. According to the archive of Japan Meteorological Agency Western Pacific typhoons kept at Digital Typhoon, August 2014 marks the first August since records began in 1951 that a tropical storm did not form in the Western Pacific. During the period 1951 - 2013, an average of 5.6 named storms formed in the basin during August. The previous record low for August was two named storms, which occurred in both 1979 and 1980. The lack of activity this August in the Northwest Pacific was due, in part, to an unfavorable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The MJO caused dry, sinking air to predominate in the Western Pacific during August. Thanks to a busy July, the Western Pacific has seen 14 named storms so far this year, which is only one behind average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Looks like the quiet spell is about to end with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Typhoon Kalmaegi is now making landfall in Guangdong Province, China. Gusts of up to 85kt have been reported by CMA (China's weather bureau). Haikou Airport, just to the south of the center reported 60kt gust and 964hPa pressure. Radar Image from CMA The system never quite lived up to its potential despite the warm waters of the Philippine Sea--mostly due to shear. It never got out of Category 1 and only really showed signs of substantial development once it entered the South China Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Excerpt from JTWC's 21z 091814 Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm Fung-Wong: DUE TO THIS TRIFURCATION IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 48. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Tis the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Eager to see what Josh/Jim are going to do with this one. Might another island-hopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Pinhole eye forming, RI has commenced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 is it fair to assume that the PNA has something to do with the uncertainty with the computer models? i was looking at the ECMWF outputs and the most drastic difference i can find is with the heights across Kamchatka and into the Bering Strait. any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Looks like Phanfone has a failed EWC. There's a stable inner eyewall that's doing some giant trochoidal wobbles within a very wide, seemingly closed, outer eyewall. Tons of convection but the storm is a bit of a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Phanfone finally got its act together and has turned into the big, bad wide-eyed storm that it's always wanted to be. Looks like it may just miss landfall while undergoing ET transition but should still give a pretty good blow to the (densely populated) Kanto plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Typhoon watch just issued for Guam and the rest of the Marianas Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Definitely will be borderline if Phanfone makes landfall on the southern coast of Japan or not. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18W/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Regardless of how officially classified, Vongfong is pretty clearly a Cat 5. Good name for a big storm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Talk about weather porn...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Regardless of how officially classified, Vongfong is pretty clearly a Cat 5. Good name for a big storm, too. The JTWC has up to 155kt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 It's beginning to make the rounds on twitter and facebook, but worth posting here, for the archive. First light of morning on STY Vongfong: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Almost called this Haiyan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I think JMA estimated that it's intensity this aftn was similar to Haiyan, maybe in terms of est winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 From Tom Niziol's Facebook: According to our Hurricane Storm Surge Expert here at The Weather Channel, Michael Lowry, VongFong is the strongest storm on earth since Haiyan hit last year. It is such a dichotomy that an extremely dangerous storm looks as beautiful from space as is shown in this image. This is what we call a night time visible satellite image taken from the VIRS satellite. It has 3x the sensitivity to light as typical satellite imagery so this image is being illuminated by moonlight only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 GPM 37GHz band at 10/7 1616z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 3B in the Bay of Bengal looks to be getting better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 3B in the Bay of Bengal looks to be getting better organized. Different thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44610-north-indian-ocean-cyclone-season-2014/#entry3075636 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Different thread. I do not think there is a 'Bay of Bengal' thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.