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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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The NAM is now forecasting a 50kt wind at about 2000ft above ground on Sunday. I think this could mean that my place could see some gusts to 50mph Sunday!

 

West Coast threads are mostly quiet.  :thumbsup:  So much easier to browse the threads than here in the east. 

 

Good luck on your wind, what is your elevation?

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Man this is a quiet thread. Thanks for keeping it alive Chinook.

Been a cool windy week, looking forward to the warmer weather this weekend.

Loveland Ski area continued to get pounded this week. Good to see a decent winter in the high country this year after a couple of dry winters. Foothills SW of Denver where I've got some property are very dry though. Hoping the El Niño helps this spring/summer so we don't get fires in the area.

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yesterday was 85 with a dew point of 16 at Fort Collins, which was the hottest day so far. Today, we have thick cirrus clouds, and this has kept us in the 70's, cooler than Greeley and Denver.

The 12z GFS shows heavy precipitation, from Cheyenne to western North Dakota, Wednesday to Thursday. I hope some rainfall hits here. Someday we'll get dew points above 30.

 

Some dew-point analysis of the super dry western areas today: 

 

post-1182-0-27186900-1399330034_thumb.pn

 

post-1182-0-44874000-1399330578_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The 12z GFS shows heavy precipitation, from Cheyenne to western North Dakota, Wednesday to Thursday. I hope some rainfall hits here.

 

Several SREF ensemble members max out at about 2.0" for this area, for a 24 hour total. I think there is a range of possibilities from 0.4" to 1.2" of rain for our area. Yesterday, the GFS had predicted barely above 0.4" below the CO/WY border.

 

post-1182-0-38699000-1399403317_thumb.gi

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The freezing levels should be high today. Even Copper Mountain (12000 ft) has a temp of 41 right now. I think 7500-8500 feet will have a possibility of rain/snow mix tomorrow, as 700mb drops to -5C

 

Last night we had about 0.01" of rain and lightning and thunder. It is the first lightning I have seen since October.

 

First mesoscale convective weather discussion for us this year

 

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 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1259 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT   SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS INCREASINGLY   PROBABLE ACROSS THE REGION BY 20-21Z.  THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE   WEATHER WATCH IS LIKELY.   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY   ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WEST AND NORTH OF DENVER...INTO THE   MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. 

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the 15z HRRR shows a large storm cell near Weld County/Morgan County in a few hours

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I just un-storm chased. Don't want any more $1000 repair bills for 2 minutes of hail.  It worked apparently there was a 1.25" hail report at Timberline Rd. (near FC Police).  Also a hail cell went from Dacono to Platteville.

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Been out of town for a week or so in Vancouver, flew back yesterday afternoon around 2:45 and the plane had to go all the way east to Sidney NE to find an alley to get back to DEN. Got a nice tour of the supercells though too high to get anything really photogenic. Last night had about half an inch of rain and 3/4" hail just as we went to bed (figures).

 

Seems like the first good storm of the year coincides within 2-3 days of the beginning of the miller moth migration... :P my dog did not forget where they typically hide, picked up right where she left off last summer.

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this tornado was several miles from Greeley

 

2125   1 NE PLATTEVILLE WELD CO 4023 10481 TORNADO TRACK FROM PLATTEVILLE TO 5S GILCREST (BOU)

 

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I saw flashes of light in the sky from 7:15-8:45 last night- a lot of bolts, for just an average rainstorm. Fort Collins got 0.3" to 1.08" of rain from yesterday.

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