Chinook Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 Here in Fort Collins, we briefly hit a 60 dew point today (with the evaporated water from last night) and the SPC analyzed CAPE is up above 3000 J/kg. I expect several heavy storms near the Front Range cities and E. Wyoming. (See SPC outlook) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 severe thunderstorm watch 356 --- DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL DRIFT EAST INTO INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS. CELL MERGERS AND SUPPORTIVE MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW MAY RESULT IN A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SPREADING INTO ERN CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 Perhaps some Close Encounters of the Tornadic Kind at Devil's Tower, WY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Only two 90+ days so far this summer with a peak temp of 92. I dig it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 I went storm chasing and nearly got caught in this squall between Ault, Eaton, and Severance. I didn't know it would fill in so much between Ault and Ft. Collins. I was a few miles north of Ault, then 1/2" hail started to fall. Then I went west and south to avoid it. Then I started to hit a wall of rain between Eaton and Severance. Then I turned around and went to Eaton to be able to wait it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Only two 90+ days so far this summer with a peak temp of 92. I dig it. Me too... AC has only been on for a day and a half total. And to think that 2 years ago we were baking, no, VAPORIZING in 105 F heat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thankfully, Colorado will not be as hot as other parts of the Mountain West. Death Valley CA forecast, almost as bad as last year's 128F in Death Valley: Sunny and hot, with a high near 122. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 The SPC has announced a GFS-based dry thunderstorm forecast parameters, out to 180 hours, operational now. I wonder if this will be particularly helpful for our area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/dryt/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 The HRRR shows quite a bit of rain for our area at 4-6PM. the NAM and RAP have less though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 perhaps some brief heavy rain in the Denver Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 5, 2014 Author Share Posted July 5, 2014 mammatus clouds on July 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 a heavy storm parallels I-70 going east of Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 a heavy storm parallels I-70 going east of Denver 2014_07_08_0224z_FTG.png Crazy weather yesterday afternoon/evening. Was fun watching all the storms form so quickly out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 Denver area storms yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 It was a scorcher yesterday. Fort Collins had 99 with a dew point of 35 at 2:10. The moisture surged back in at 4:40. I got a video of a lightning bolt at 7:45. (see "short term severe weather disco" thread). That storm core was centered near Estes Park, actually. --- On July 7th, 2014, the high temperature at Denver International Airport reached 100 degrees. The last time Denver reached the century mark was July 11th, 2013. The record maximum temperature for July 7th in Denver is 102 degrees which occurred back in July 7th, 1989. --- I just played back my video in slow motion. Stepped leaders!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 There seem to be some signs of heavy rain and severe weather on the Front Range tomorrow. The GFS loads us up with precipitable water, and even the NAM has 1.2" of PW. There may be sufficient shear and instability for severe storms. The SREF max-precipitation fields show higher values around Denver tomorrow. Next week, there may be even a few signs of widespread rain with a stalled cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 There seem to be some signs of heavy rain and severe weather on the Front Range tomorrow. The GFS loads us up with precipitable water, and even the NAM has 1.2" of PW. There may be sufficient shear and instability for severe storms. The SREF max-precipitation fields show higher values around Denver tomorrow. Next week, there may be even a few signs of widespread rain with a stalled cold front. Happy Monsoon Season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Felt like an East Coast summer morning today, 63/58 when I got up at 6:30 AM. Make sure those gutters are cleaned out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Oh boy, 56-59 dew points in my area. A few showers already going in Larimer County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 So, is it my imagination or is there some broad rotation to the big storm moving up I-25 from the south? No warnings or anything but looks nasty... about to cross into my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Commerce City has had a few minutes of high reflectivity. I can't tell much from the velocity field. Are you seeing lightning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Not that much really. Still at work. Some pics from others on #cowx looked like maybe the beginnings of a shelf cloud, but then things wimped out and weakened. Called home, said they had some little hailstones and heavy rain with a few gusts. Apples and cherries still intact. Good crop this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 we had several pretty good cracks of thunder and some actual rain (maybe 0.15") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 My area may have gotten 0.6 to 0.7" last night. We were getting a bit of dry grass with only sprinkes in the last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 The 12z GFS 4-day total precipitation shows lots of rain for Colorado. The WPC official 5-day QPF actually has over 2.5" for Pueblo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 My area got 0.5" to 0.6" again. That makes 1.1" to 1.3" for the two-day period near my house. The storms seemed to line up near Fort Collins for a little while yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 tornado warning for a wall cloud at Cheyenne --- ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LARAMIECOUNTY UNTIL 200 PM MDT...AT 129 PM MDT...A ROTATING WALL CLOUD WAS LOCATED NEAR FRONTIERPARK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED ROTATING WALL CLOUD --- * AT 120 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH CHEYENNE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 AT 140 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR THE ARCHER EXIT10 MILES EAST OF CHEYENNE. THE SPOTTER THEN REPORTED THE TORNADOLIFTED. -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 We had pea sized hail as a hail core went over the west side of town and the mountain, for a 2nd time today1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Once again, Fort Collins gets the dumpage. We had a loud crack of thunder before this round (2:55). Some parts of Ft Collins got 1.15" yesterday, with 2.05" at the Poudre Canyon mouth. My place may have had 2.0" since Friday. yesterday's rainfall radar at 3:13pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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