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Tennessee Valley Winter Storm March 2-3

jaxjagman

By jaxjagman,
in Tennessee Valley

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
309 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THIS
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.  THESE CHANGES CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WHAT HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

STARTING WITH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT FORECAST TIME ARE
EXTREMELY LARGE SO IT`S GOING TO TAKE AWHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SATURATE TO THE POINT WHERE RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS
REASON I HAVE DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BUT STAY JUST A TOUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE.  RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LIGHT.  I DON`T EXPECT ANYONE TO SEE ANY MORE THAN 0.15 INCHES WITH
TONIGHT`S SYSTEM.

AS I MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE ANY REAL
SURFACE REFLECTION...WHICH IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
DOWN...BUT IT WILL ALSO KEEP THERE FROM BEING ANY FRONT FROM MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE.  IN TURN...WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REFLECT THIS AND
WARM INTO THE 50S...AND EVEN SOME 60S COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

THIS PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY IS PART OF THE CHANGES TO THIS
FORECAST...AND IT REVOLVES AROUND THE COLD AIR THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
COMBINATION OF A LARGE ELEVATED WARM LAYER /6 TO 8 DEGREES
CELSIUS/...SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND RAIN FALLING INTO
THOSE FREEZING SURFACES TEMPERATURES SPELLS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS STILL AREN`T IN GREAT
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS COLD AIR...BUT THEY
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION FOR THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...GIVING US A BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL.  CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SLEET OR
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM FLATWOODS TO
NASHVILLE TO PORTLAND...AND WHILE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ICE/SLEET WE MAY SEE.  FIRST
ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SECONDLY...THE RAIN RATES MAY PLAY A LARGE FACTOR IN KEEPING US FROM
ACCRUING LARGER AMOUNTS OF ICE.  HIGHER RAIN RATES WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUGGEST LARGE AMOUNTS OF
ICE ACCRUAL.  KEEP IN MIND THOUGH...IF SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COME IN A LITTLE FASTER AND END UP FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S...THEN WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A MUCH LARGER EVENT.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS MORE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA
OF CONCERN MAY BE UNDER THE GUN EVEN MORE. AREAS SUCH AS...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO...WESTERN WILLIAMSON...OAKHILL IN DAVIDSON COUNTY...
DICKSON COUNTY...SPRINGFIELD IN ROBERTSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SUMNER COUNTY COULD SEE THE WORST OF THIS AS THE COLD
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ON TOP OF THE ICE AND SLEET POTENTIAL...IT WILL BECOME WINDY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS COULD EXACERBATE PROBLEMS IF ICE DOES BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND POWER LINES.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Good luck over that way guys! Hope 0z continues the trend for you. Having the euro in your camp is a very good thing!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm telling you,i'm really concerned the models like i said before don't have a handle on the low level cold pool.i think it could be even colder at the 2m's.But alot has to be is what happens tomorrow.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Insane

 

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z MAR01   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SAT 00Z 01-MAR   4.3     1.9    1017      52      89             560     547   
SAT 06Z 01-MAR   3.7     0.0    1020      71      97    0.01     561     545   
SAT 12Z 01-MAR   3.2     1.6    1022      90      74    0.00     565     547   
SAT 18Z 01-MAR   9.6     3.4    1023      74      29    0.01     571     552   
SUN 00Z 02-MAR   9.9     4.1    1021      85      28    0.00     573     556   
SUN 06Z 02-MAR   9.1     6.0    1021      93      39    0.01     573     556   
SUN 12Z 02-MAR  10.3     8.7    1019      95      48    0.06     572     556   
SUN 18Z 02-MAR  11.4     8.6    1019      94      67    0.08     571     557   
MON 00Z 03-MAR   1.7     8.8    1018      94      99    0.29     569     555   
MON 06Z 03-MAR   0.3     6.3    1017      95      97    0.84     565     552   
MON 12Z 03-MAR  -4.2     1.5    1019      93      98    0.55     559     544   
MON 18Z 03-MAR  -2.5    -2.1    1025      82      57    0.01     559     540   
TUE 00Z 04-MAR  -5.0    -0.5    1027      87      13    0.01     561     540

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            00Z MAR01   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SAT 00Z 01-MAR   6.8    -0.4    1016      70      91             558     546   
SAT 06Z 01-MAR   6.4     4.0    1017      81      57    0.00     565     551   
SAT 12Z 01-MAR   6.4     3.6    1019      93      43    0.00     570     555   
SAT 18Z 01-MAR  14.6     8.4    1021      77      23    0.00     575     558   
SUN 00Z 02-MAR  12.3     7.8    1019      95      29    0.01     575     559   
SUN 06Z 02-MAR  12.8     9.3    1018      98      40    0.03     576     560   
SUN 12Z 02-MAR  13.2     9.8    1017      98      39    0.06     574     560   
SUN 18Z 02-MAR   7.4    10.0    1019      96      85    0.25     573     558   
MON 00Z 03-MAR   0.9     9.2    1017      90      97    0.30     570     556   
MON 06Z 03-MAR  -1.1     5.1    1019      95      98    1.32     566     551   
MON 12Z 03-MAR  -6.9     0.9    1024      92      56    0.06     561     542   
MON 18Z 03-MAR  -3.5     0.6    1027      87      30    0.01     563     542   
TUE 00Z 04-MAR  -3.7     2.2    1027      89      10    0.01     565     544

 

 

This would be historic,possibly

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John1122

John1122

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GGEM was pretty epic for most of the state and pretty devastating for Middle and West Tennessee, NAM continues beating the sleet drum it looks like for those areas.

 

If the model trend is like this at 12z, I could see Winter Storm products in East Tennessee tomorrow afternoon. I think West and Middle will likely have them by morning.

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kvskelton

kvskelton

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If the model trend is like this at 12z, I could see Winter Storm products in East Tennessee tomorrow afternoon. I think West and Middle will likely have them by morning.

Special Weather Statement in regard to light icing has been issued for the TRI area. It has been fun watching this one develop! Today's runs will be VERY interesting!

Good luck to our brethren to the West (and others) who have been in the snow drought. This system appears to have the makings of a wild ride for someone!

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

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Special Weather Statement in regard to light icing has been issued for the TRI area. It has been fun watching this one develop! Today's runs will be VERY interesting!

Good luck to our brethren to the West (and others) who have been in the snow drought. This system appears to have the makings of a wild ride for someone!

Any guess as to what Nashville is seeing to keep them from pulling the trigger on WSW? Just to the west there are already warnings in place.

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John1122

John1122

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Nashville went wsw west half, wwa most of the east half of their cwa. MRX still has the SPS but says they'll probably need a WWA for the Plateau/SW VA and maybe NE TN down to Knoxville as well. 

 

My forecast now says 90% freezing rain/snow Monday with a high of 28. We'll see if the models continue colder next issuance. They will finally have sampled storm data at that point. The 12z today didn't have it yet.

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John1122

John1122

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18z NAM was a little colder and a bit more snowy for the area, especially from the counties just below the Ky border and north into Kentucky. Now showing 4+ inches NW TN and North of Nashville. Around 1-3 for the Northern Plateau. Still a mega sleet event per the NAM. 2-4 inches of sleet to go along with the 3-4 inches of snow in NW Tennessee. Freezing rain, in the NAM, isn't as big a concern for most of the area, but around Nashville the NAM is giving up to .75 inches of ice.

 

Euro insists on a major snow event for a good portion of the area. Huge in Middle/ West Tennessee into Kentucky. 6+ inches on Wunderground.

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