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March Madness 03/03/2014 -------> The EURO abides


winterymix

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maybe <1" of snow at the end for DC...I am more interested in the absolutely ludicrous temps that the GFS is showing during the event.  I don't really believe in ice in March, but if those temps can even come close to verifying it will be a major ice event even in the city...of course they are probably too cold

 

I have no doubt it's too cold.  But then again, the NAM usually does the cold hat trick vs GFS.  

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What are we looking for here? a snow event? not happening. Sleet and Freezing rain? I love ice events so Id be interested but alot of people meh them.

 

I am more interested in the later next week

 

the surface temps the GFS is depicting are astronomical...even if they are 3+ degrees too cold, it is a major icing event

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I think the envelope is well defined. I really only care much about how much can fall as snow on the tail. I haven't looked at the 12z gfs super close but it looks like 1-2 snow on the end. Maybe more nw

 

Hr 108 is sleet I believe... 850 is +1 and 800 is +0.8... other others are below freezing.... so I gather changeover to snow would be soon after

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You guys need to ditch the models and go back to looking at what is trending around us in all directions.  None of the models were predicting any snow at all for this week's Tuesday - Wednesday storm and they all got it wrong until it was right on top of us.  You need to look at temps in regions other than ours in relation to to when the storm is arriving, jet stream, water vapor movement, atlantic sub tropical movement (weather patterns).  Anyone can look at a model and report what is says.  That would be fine if the models were right all of the time - but they aren't!!!!  My Dad used to joke that the weatherman doesn't have a window in his office.  No prediction is ever going to be 100% accurate but relying on models 100% of the time is setting up for an epic fail!  The storm is still way out but using the factors I normally look at that are happening out west, with the gulf stream, knowing what I know about the current airmass in our area, local ground and bay temperatures, cold air funneling I am predicting at least 4 inches of snow for Anne Arundel County for the Sun-Mon storm.  I am sure a lot of you will laugh kind of like you did when I was the only guy calling for any snow Tues-Wed but I like my track record vs the models this year!

This past Tues/Wed? What are you talking about? It was always in the cards for a coating to an inch storm which is what most people got..maybe 2 in spots...You will not get 4"...theres a chance this could be a significant wintry storm but that would be because of ice, not snow.

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yeah, but 18-23 gives us a huge margin of error...of course the gradient is super sharp...whoever is in the cold sector is going to get crippled (if the depiction is close to right)

yea..i dont care if its july. If its 18-23...its going to be a major ice situation

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Thanks Ian.

I haven't seen the run but the GFS sucks so until the euro shows us getting crippled I'm going to assume it's not happening. The GFS also showed us getting a high of like 15 next Wednesday yesterday which would be the coldest high on record in March.
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maybe <1" of snow at the end for DC...I am more interested in the absolutely ludicrous temps that the GFS is showing during the event.  I don't really believe in ice in March, but if those temps can even come close to verifying it will be a major ice event even in the city...of course they are probably too cold

The GFS is giving people false hope with that wedge. No chance it verifies.

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