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March 2- 4 Snowstorm Potential


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#106
IsentropicLift

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

Maybe for the immediate, immediate coastal plain but it's a high end warning criteria snowfall for the NW suburbs and a lot of ice for some people as well. And it's still a day 6+ event.



#107
Zelocita Weather

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

Hah



#108
IsentropicLift

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I'd love to see the 12z GFS verify just from the magnitude of the duration. Quite honestly if the subsidence to the north was just a bit stronger this would have jackpotted the Mid-Atlantic. Colder probably equals less precip.

 

Ask the New England folks, Boston is barely 0.50" this run.



#109
SnoSki14

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Looks very 93-94 ish, the PV will be key in this setup as it could trend either way at this point. Very long duration and someone could really get a ton of snow. Hopefully it's not an icy scenario.

#110
Brian5671

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I'd love to see the 12z GFS verify just from the magnitude of the duration. Quite honestly if the subsidence to the north was just a bit stronger this would have jackpotted the Mid-Atlantic. Colder probably equals less precip.

 

Ask the New England folks, Boston is barely 0.50" this run.

that's a concern too, that it gets shunted south and we get zilch b/c the PV is too far south.



#111
rossi

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A lot of overrunning. The main low goes off the Del Marva.


If that track is accurate this will probably mainly snow from Central NJ on north.

#112
Plfdwxdude

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If that track is accurate this will probably mainly snow from Central NJ on north.

Depends on the 850 low. Could be a VD2007 repeat and give us mostly sleet



#113
Ralph Wiggum

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Ice storms in March are a rarity but we may have one on our hands early next week.

#114
Zelocita Weather

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Early signs are:

 

Balt South: Some ice/sleet inland, mostly rain

Balt - Phl: Some snow (1-3), some sleet/ice, some rain

Phl-C NJ: Some snow (2-4/3-6), some ice/sleet, some rain

N NJ- S SNE: Snow (4-8+), some ice/sleet, maybe a little rain

C SNE North: Snow (more south, less north)

 

Course this will change depending on strength of Low vs. High



#115
NEG NAO

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

yes thats what usually happens in March when you have boarderline temps - would be a different story though if the temps trend a few degrees colder which is still possible



#116
IsentropicLift

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Ice storms in March are a rarity but we may have one on our hands early next week.

Ice storms in early March are not uncommon. The first few days of March are like an extension of February, like if February had 30 or 31 days.



#117
Ralph Wiggum

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Ice storms in early March are not uncommon. The first few days of March are like an extension of February, like if February had 30 or 31 days.

but climatologically speaking much different than early jan-mid feb when they are most common

#118
hudsonvalley21

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who cares, better than rain.  and depends on location.  N and W of NYC could do quite well in this setup.  and it's just one of many possible solutions, 5 days out, this will change to some extent.

06Z GFS run had 5" of snow before the flip to ZR up here at KSWF



#119
GD0815

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yes thats what usually happens in March when you have boarderline temps - would be a different story though if the temps trend a few degrees colder which is still possible

Disagree, the problem on the GFS is 850 temps, the surface stays pretty cold.



#120
Snow88

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Navgem

nvg10.prp.162.namer.gif



#121
IsentropicLift

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Unless you're on the immediate Jersey coast, Eastern LI or southeast of 95 in SNJ you won't have much plain rain to deal with per the current 12z GFS run. North of that area will be periods of moderate snow, poor ratio snow, sleet, freezing rain and maybe even a little of plain rain depending on your exact location. It's truly the kitchen sink.



#122
IsentropicLift

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Navgem

nvg10.prp.162.namer.gif

Luckily that model is garbage and has a southeast bias.



#123
rossi

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Unless you're on the immediate Jersey coast, Eastern LI or southeast of 95 in SNJ you won't have much plain rain to deal with per the current 12z GFS run. North of that area will be periods of moderate snow, poor ratio snow, sleet, freezing rain and maybe even a little of plain rain depending on your exact location. It's truly the kitchen sink.


Good post covering all areas!!

#124
NutleyBlizzard

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From what the 12z GFS says verbatim, we just need it to trend a couple ticks colder then we'll be in good shape as far as snow with minimum impacts of ice. That being said, with the way these models have been this winter, its a good bet  King Euro will give us an entire different  good or bad  scenario. :axe:



#125
Snow88

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12z GGEM looks similiar to the GFS. Long duration event.



#126
IsentropicLift

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A bit off topic but brutal cold returns again mid-March as we have yet another visit from the PV.



#127
bluewave

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CAD overruning special on 12z GFS like 0z Euro ens with weak waves of low pressure.

 

 



#128
USCG RS

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Ice storms in March are a rarity but we may have one on our hands early next week.

I'd rather get rn+

#129
Snow88

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CAD overruning special on 12z GFS like 0z Euro ens with weak waves of low pressure.

 

attachicon.gifLGA.png

 

attachicon.gifOKX.png

No rain at all. Much colder than 6z.



#130
WintersGrasp

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The 12z GFS is 6-12" snow and mix from central Kansas east to southern New England including NYC


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#131
Snow88

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12z GGEM also came in much colder and further south. Mostly frozen for our area.



#132
IsentropicLift

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Not that it was really brought up but to put to bed any PDII comparisons.

 

PDII

 

021700.png

 

2014

 

f144.gif



#133
bluewave

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No rain at all. Much colder than 6z.

 

We need the waves of LP to stay weak with sheared pieces of energy ejecting from the SW to pull this off.



#134
Ralph Wiggum

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We need the waves of LP to stay weak with sheared pieces of energy ejecting from the SW to pull this off.

bingo...was trying to get this thru to ppl earlier

#135
Snow88

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We need the waves of LP to stay weak with sheared pieces of energy ejecting from the SW to pull this off.

Exactly. A strong low is going to bring in warm air and track inland.



#136
Highzenberg

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PD II looks nothing like this IMO, this is a frontal boundary, overrunning storm



#137
IsentropicLift

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We need the waves of LP to stay weak with sheared pieces of energy ejecting from the SW to pull this off.

All you really need is for the PV in Western Canada to stay put with either late phasing or no phasing. The moisture riding up the gradient will produce prolonged periods of over running precip/snows. The danger exists if this completely phases out west, but that would still be quite the marvel to see and we'd still get good front end snows.

 

If the CAD ends up stronger and the low ends up stronger it could end rather ugly.



#138
Weathergun

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The 12z GGEM is a MECS. 850mb, 925mb, 2m temps are very cold with overrunning and coastal. Over 1" over qpf. 10-15" of snow for our area, through 168hr.



#139
Snow88

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GGEM

P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif

P6_GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif



#140
IsentropicLift

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The 12z GGEM is a MECS. 850mb, 925mb, 2m temps are very cold with overrunning and coastal.

It's very similar to the GFS. Sharp cut off 75-100 miles north of NYC.





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