Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 And please don't get me wrong, there looks to be a pretty good front end dump even for the coast. I doubt surface temps would be in the mid 30s at hr 84. 32 and 850s near or just below 0 looks more accurate. NW of i95 looks great throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mid 30s at hrs 84, 90 and 96 850s around 0 or just below at hr 84. + 2-5 at 90 and 96 hmn, 850 dashed line at 96, I would not discount the wxbell maps, snow to mix to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wouldn't get worked over these runs right now. We all know that the track isn't 100 percent set in stone just yet. What we do know is that a storm is looking likely for Thursday. Euro shows about 6+ inches of snow for NYC before the changeover while inland areas get creamed. Just a little more east with the low and NYC will get creamed. Is it possible? Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's literally on the coast of nj before heading ene or ne towards the cape according to the Euro. No one is hyping up a change to rain. People are just saying what the Euro shows verbatim. NYC is very borderline. Parts of nyc could stay snow on this run. Look at the soundings when they are out. From what I've seen so far on the euro maps the low appears 50-100 miles (closer to the 50) east of ACY. Not the most perfect placement for the NYC metro area, but Manhattan and points west can certainly stay 90%+ snow with such a track. The airmass in place isn't that cold, but it can more than get the job done during this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Most of the snow actually falls out in-front of the low so it mostly falls as snow this run before it changes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z definitely ticked 50 miles or so west from the 12z. Instead of coming right off OBX it goes over the eastern North Carolina/Virginia Boarder and then through far east Maryland and Delaware. At hour 96 the low is very close to Atlantic City. I liked this run. Definitely p-type issues for the coast and city but I think this could end up being a bit further east than what is shown. The takeaway is that there wasn't a major shift away from a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 From what I've seen so far on the euro maps the low appears 50-100 miles (closer to the 50) east of ACY. Not the most perfect placement for the NYC metro area, but Manhattan and points west can certainly stay 90%+ snow with such a track. The airmass in place certainly isn't that cold, but it can more than get the job done during this time of year. I wish I could show you what it shows on wb. No way it's 100 miles east of AC. Doesn't matter and we shouldn't argue over nonsense. It's 3.5 days out. Let's see what tomorrow holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00Z RGEM ensembles hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I basically said it hugs the coast then turns ENE under LI and towards the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 hmn, 850 dashed line at 96, I would not discount the wxbell maps, snow to mix to snow Verbatim (unless wb is dead wrong) the coast is above 0 at 850mb and the surface. I don't see how that's not rain at hrs 90 and 96. But I'm really happy with where we are at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wish I could show you what it shows on wb. No way it's 100 miles east of AC. Doesn't matter and we shouldn't argue over nonsense. It's 3.5 days out. Let's see what tomorrow holds. the low is literally touching the Jersey coast line at 985 MBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the low is literally touching the Jersey coast line at 985 MBS Yes I know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wish I could show you what it shows on wb. No way it's 100 miles east of AC. Doesn't matter and we shouldn't argue over nonsense. It's 3.5 days out. Let's see what tomorrow holds.I agree with you sir, looking at wxbell, the low is tucked right along the jersey coast. Yet, fifty mile differences will be ironed out over the next 72 hrs. Furthermore, as another member pointed out : the ssts over the Atlantic will more than likely bring the storm East (temperature gradient) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Verbatim (unless wb is dead wrong) the coast is above 0 at 850mb and the surface. I don't see how that's not rain at hrs 90 and 96. But I'm really happy with where we are at right now. Yea it is rain at 90-96 but the heaviest stuff fall between 84-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea it is rain at 90-96 but the heaviest stuff fall between 84-90 Agreed. Hence why I said nice front end dump for all. Even though it shows temps in the mid 30s even at hr 84 for the coast, I believe we (the coast) would be 31/32 since there heavy precip falling cooling the column a couple degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 According to Plymouth NYC is -2 at 850 at 96 but it could be wrong, moot point anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Agreed. Hence why I said nice front end dump for all. Even though it shows temps in the mid 30s even at hr 84 for the coast, I believe we (the coast) would be 31/32 since there heavy precip falling cooling the column a couple degrees. Yes and also the low level cold air will hold strong esp with the snow pack not going anywhere and only the high res will see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 According to Plymouth NYC is -2 at 850 at 96 but it could be wrong, moot point anyways Agreed. Point is moot right now. Wb shows nyc at +1 at 96. I wish they all showed the same dawn thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Agreed. Point is moot right now. Wb shows nyc at +1 at 96. I wish they all showed the same dawn thingIt will be interesting to see what the AccuWeather six hr increments show when they come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes and also the low level cold air will hold steady esp with the snow pack not going anywhere Eh I don't like that argument especially with a low really tucked into the NJ coast as the Euro shows. Like I said before, take a blend of all models and you have a nice track further off the coast. Let's worry about the details inside 48 hrs. I was just spitting out verbatim maps from wb and discounting the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It will be interesting to see what the AccuWeather six hr increments show when they come out 6" Right over Queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hpc POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE REACHING THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT LIKELY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF / 00Z CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER TODAY...WHICH MAY CARRY OVER DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH BY THU MORNING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COMPARED TO THE REMAINING AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF END UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS...LIKELY TOO FAR INLAND WITH THEIR SURFACE LOWS. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC HAVE ALL ADJUSTED A BIT WEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE 00Z GFS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS DISPLACED A BIT TOO FAR EAST AND IS A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THAN DESIRED...BUT IT IS BETTER THAN THE 12Z/09 RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC CAN NOT BE IGNORED WITH THEIR WESTWARD TREND FOR THE 00Z CYCLE GIVEN THEY LOOK FINE WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS...THE PREFERENCE IS TO BE A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET. THE ECMWF MADE A WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE 00Z/09 CYCLE AS WELL..AND COULD JUST BE FLIP FLOPPING. PREFER TO STAY STEADY WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND NEW 00Z CMC GIVEN THEIR CLOSER AGREEMENT IN POSITION/STRENGTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eh I don't like that argument especially with a low really tucked into the NJ coast as the Euro shows. Like I said before, take a blend of all models and you have a nice track further off the coast. Let's worry about the details inside 48 hrs. I was just spitting out verbatim maps from wb and discounting the snow map. Exactly, Im confident it wont end up tucked in. These storms love to track along the SST boundary. With that said SST off our coast are really cold so it would be even harder to get the warm air in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hpc POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE REACHING THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT LIKELY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF / 00Z CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER TODAY...WHICH MAY CARRY OVER DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH BY THU MORNING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COMPARED TO THE REMAINING AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF END UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS...LIKELY TOO FAR INLAND WITH THEIR SURFACE LOWS. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC HAVE ALL ADJUSTED A BIT WEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE 00Z GFS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS DISPLACED A BIT TOO FAR EAST AND IS A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THAN DESIRED...BUT IT IS BETTER THAN THE 12Z/09 RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC CAN NOT BE IGNORED WITH THEIR WESTWARD TREND FOR THE 00Z CYCLE GIVEN THEY LOOK FINE WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS...THE PREFERENCE IS TO BE A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET. THE ECMWF MADE A WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE 00Z/09 CYCLE AS WELL..AND COULD JUST BE FLIP FLOPPING. PREFER TO STAY STEADY WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND NEW 00Z CMC GIVEN THEIR CLOSER AGREEMENT IN POSITION/STRENGTH. Couldn't agree more and is basically what I have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The SREFs look pretty far SE (at the end of its range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The SREFs look pretty far SE (at the end of its range). Yea they are almost look a little gfs like...the good thing is the spread is far to the west. So at his range for them it doesn't mean much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro looks pretty 1/22/87 like with its idea, the pattern is not a dead match at the upper levels but the storm evolution may be close...January 2000 as well with that ugly dry slot idea it shows...my guess is its going to be between the Euro/GFS...the GFS again is suffering from what same feedback deal (I think) we've seen before where it cannot consolidate low centers...and it tends to be very stubborn when it gets in that mode, don't expect it to make any move towards the GEM/UKMET/Euro for probably another 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1.9 of QPF what a close call , it would be a killer for CNJ and KNYC hour 90 - 96 , would miss a monster by a hair . Lets hope the ensembles are a tick outside OBX . Just read HPC and a Huge Difference between Plymouth state 850`s and WB , changes the entire evolution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As per Mid Atlantic thread the Euro ensemble mean is a tick east , not by a lot , but it`s a little east of the OP . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This nam run will probably come in less amped. southern stream is a little weaker @ 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.