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February 13-14 potential snow storm


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#71
Zir0b

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Verbatim the confluence pulls out as the low approaches. The 50-50 low feature books it into the Atlantic.

yeah, we've got no blocking. not really an ideal setup at all but i guess it could work if it's timed right. but we all know timing will not be correct 6-7 days out 



#72
IsentropicLift

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Eek a 96' reference. Brace yourself for flaming for that reference this far out :lol:. This storm is going to change plenty of times and the track isnt even important right now just the players on the field as we get closer. Btw yank i agree if that ULL in seattle is still there it may give this fits as far as an optimal phase should this get to that point as a threat

I'm hard pressed to find a good analog at the moment. Anyway I can handle the bashing for the 96' reference. I take bashing here on a daily basis.



#73
Highzenberg

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Yank, March 01 had a really amazing block which forced the ULL to retrograde, this pattern and that are probably total opposites. Not sure why you would even mention it as an analog...Take a look at March 01

 

Attached File  march01.gif   25.04KB   7 downloads



#74
REDMK6GLI

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I'm hard pressed to find a good analog at the moment. Anyway I can handle the bashing for the 96' reference. I take bashing here on a daily basis.


Thumbs up for taking the beatings like a man! :lol: me personally i think we should put this threat on the back burner and still concentrate on what we can possibly make of the weekend threat and come back to this monday. By that time were around 100 hours out and can maybe start taking a closer look at this

#75
IsentropicLift

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Hey is the setup a slam dunk? Not by any means, but it's exciting to see the players on the field for a big hit again.



#76
Highzenberg

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This looks like a textbook Apps, W NE/PA hit...I-95 would need to get really lucky. 



#77
SnoSki14

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Honestly we should all be happy even if we get no more snow for the rest of the winter. Everyone is above average, some well above average. There's also no point discussing details of this storm over a week out especially considering the debacle with this weekend's storm, it's just foolish. 



#78
IsentropicLift

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It's probably better that we don't have great blocking here. This coming up the coast is a bit reliant on the high retreating some I believe.



#79
REDMK6GLI

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Honestly we should all be happy even if we get no more snow for the rest of the winter. Everyone is above average, some well above average. There's also no point discussing details of this storm over a week out especially considering the debacle with this weekend's storm, it's just foolish.


Well totally giving up on the weekend storm would be foolish considering the NAM and the GFS to some degree actually showed better spacing between lead wave and 2nd one and other factors in the weekend storm. Lets come back monday to this

#80
1234abc

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12z JMA has this down for a blizzard for anyone west of eastern Long Island with 1.5-2.0 qpf area wide and a 981mb low centered over the eastern end of Long Island.



#81
Snow88

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This looks like a textbook Apps, W NE/PA hit...I-95 would need to get really lucky.


7 days out

#82
IsentropicLift

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12z JMA has this down for a blizzard for anyone west of eastern Long Island with 1.5-2.0 qpf area wide and a 981mb low centered over the eastern end of Long Island.

For when? SV only goes out to hour 192.



#83
+SNfreak21

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ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM have good agreement, but too far out, stale past bomb like 2/3 event, 



#84
1234abc

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For when? SV only goes out to hour 192.

Accuweather updates earlier.  Check again.



#85
ag3

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If you want to find an analog, look at 1994.

Not sure why people are still looking at any other year.

 

Yesterday's event was a Feb. 23, 1994 analog.

This one is similar to Feb. 11, 1994. It's not exact, but it's close enough.



#86
IsentropicLift

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Accuweather updates earlier.  Check again.

No I mean SV only runs the JMA up to hour 192.



#87
Highzenberg

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7 days out

 

Just based off the overall teleconnections/pattern setup. I'm just saying it is more favorable for them. 



#88
ag3

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Just based off the overall teleconnections/pattern setup. I'm just saying it is more favorable for them. 

 

Disagree. The entire pattern is a Feb. 1994 one and all our events have worked out.

This next one looks like a Feb. 11, 1994 repeat.



#89
ag3

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No I mean SV only runs the JMA up to hour 192.

 

Then SV isn't updated because the updated JMA shows a blizzard from hour 168-192.



#90
IsentropicLift

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Then SV isn't updated because the updated JMA shows a blizzard from hour 168-192.

Yup, you're right. Now that's a true Miller A. About as classic of track as it gets.



#91
Allsnow

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euro ens support the storm and is further  east then op..



#92
1234abc

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12z Euro ensemble mean likes the JMA track also.



#93
IsentropicLift

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The Euro mean is faster than the JMA. At hour 180 it has the low off the Delmarva coast and by 192 it's well northeast.



#94
Weathergun

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This storm has a kicker. Track further east looks more reasonable.



#95
IsentropicLift

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9nhwbg_conus.gif



#96
IsentropicLift

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12z Canadian Ensembles are all over this threat.



#97
brooklynwx99

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If this ends up like the weekend storm...  :lol:

 

It's good that this event has support and looks like it might have a chance of producing.

 

As much as I would love this one to happen, I would be very cautious...



#98
BlizzardNYC

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If this ends up like the weekend storm... :lol:

It's good that this event has support and looks like it might have a chance of producing.

As much as I would love this one to happen, I would be very cautious...

me too only because the sun angel is becoming higher and higher as the days go by and we all know what that means, at least for the coast

#99
Bluescat1

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Mt Holly has precip probs at 50% for Wednesday, that is pretty bold.



#100
rossi

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me too only because the sun angel is becoming higher and higher as the days go by and we all know what that means, at least for the coast


No affect until the end of the month

#101
EasternLI

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me too only because the sun angel is becoming higher and higher as the days go by and we all know what that means, at least for the coast

 

meh.....it can snow into april in this area, given the proper setup.



#102
IsentropicLift

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Everything looking on target so far with the 18z GFS. As long as that pig of a high pressure is over the plains it's going to force the energy south.



#103
IsentropicLift

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That lead system for next Tuesday needs to get the heck out of the way. Don't want to see it blow up offshore and pull the baraclonic zone too far east.



#104
REDMK6GLI

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Everything looking on target so far with the 18z GFS. As long as that pig of a high pressure is over the plains it's going to force the energy south.

ill tell you the setup so far does not look bad at all. lets see how she finishes :popcorn:



#105
snywx

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meh.....it can snow into april in this area, given the proper setup.


Snowing and accumulating are 2 different things. We all know it can accumulate in April but its def much harder.. I've seen it snow in mid may up here



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