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February 2014 Observations


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#1
Jaxjagman

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mcd0064.gifMESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/FAR SERN MO/FAR NWRN TN/WRN KY/FAR SRN IL
   AND SWRN IND

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

   VALID 041559Z - 042030Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH PER
   HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN A 75-100 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR
   EXTENDING FROM NERN AR TO FAR SRN IL/SWRN IND AND WRN KY.  THIS
   PRECIP-TYPE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NERN AR...FAR SERN MO AND FAR NWRN
   TN/WRN KY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REACH FAR SRN IL...FAR SWRN IND
   AND THE REST OF FAR WRN KY AFTER 18Z.

   DISCUSSION...AT 15Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER LARGE
   AREA OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING N/NEWD ACROSS AR...WITH LIGHTNING
   DATA INDICATING TSTMS OVER SRN/CENTRAL AR INTO NWRN MS AND ADJACENT
   FAR SWRN TN.  AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING SLOWLY
   TO AROUND 32 F OVER NWRN MS INTO SWRN TN WITH THESE OBSERVATIONS
   LOCATED IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER /S-E SIDE/ OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
   WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN AR TO NWRN TN...THEN ENEWD ALONG THE
   WRN KY/TN BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 32 F IN WRN TN AND PART OF SRN KY INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...NELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES ON THE
   COOL SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL TEND TO REMAIN BELOW 32 F. 

   MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY RELATIVELY DRY LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE...
   PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO
   THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT
   ATTENDANT TO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH AND STRONG
   LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPING FROM NERN AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ALONG
   A 50-60 KT LLJ INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA.  ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY LIMITING THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...THE
   EXPECTATION OF SURFACE TRAJECTORIES REMAINING NELY ON THE COOL SIDE
   OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH RESULTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE
   THAT SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 32 F FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THUS...THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER ALREADY IN
   PLACE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA PER 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE
   850 MB 0 C ISOTHERM EXTENDING FROM NEAR STL TO SDF AND ADDITIONAL
   LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
   RAIN BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON.  AN
   INCREASE IN PW VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH SHOULD SUPPORT THE GREATER
   PRECIPITATION RATES INTO THE AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THE COLUMN
   SATURATES...INITIAL PRECIP-TYPES COULD BE A MIX OF SNOW AND/OR
   SLEET...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

   ..PETERS.. 02/04/2014



#2
Stovepipe

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THREAD TITLE GOES WELL WITH SPC TEXT!

 

(thanks for starting one)



#3
Stovepipe

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Wow!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
156 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH...

.AT MID AFTERNOON... DEEP MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THESE
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET.

TNZ004-050000-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140205T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KMEG.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140205T0000Z/
HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PARIS
156 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO FOUR TENTHS INCH OF ICE...UP TO
  ONE QUARTER INCH OF SLEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 PM CST TODAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES MAY BECOME SLICK AND
  HAZARDOUS. A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE DOWNED AND COULD
  RESULT IN SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET. TRAVEL
IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED.

7j4B1qO.jpg

 

Edit:  The warning was just extended to midnight.



#4
Stovepipe

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Family is reporting an ice storm under way in Paris.  Trees and powerlines covered, temperature is 28 degrees.



#5
Greyhound

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Stovepipe.....I've got family in Murray. Said its just rain right now.

#6
Stovepipe

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Stovepipe.....I've got family in Murray. Said its just rain right now.

 

Temps in Paris are wavering up and down by a couple of degrees.  Ice doesn't seem to be on the roads yet, mostly just elevated surfaces as of a little before 3pm CST.  A few large limbs are down on my parent's property.



#7
Jaxjagman

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Models are crap,they missed this one.Big ice issues



#8
Stovepipe

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Any obs from Union City?

 

Update from Paris.  Conditions are not too bad at the moment.  Mostly icicles and sagging pine trees.  Roads seem ok.  Biggest deal has been the heavy rain.



#9
Jaxjagman

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
417 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...ICE STORM IN PROGRESS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

.SHORT TERM...

VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION HAS UNFOLDED TODAY WITH
UNEXPECTED FREEZING RAIN CAUSING SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RESULTING IN A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR STEWART COUNTY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BENTON/HOUSTON/MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. DESPITE ALL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF A CAMDEN TO
CLARKSVILLE LINE ALL DAY LONG. THIS HAS BEEN APPARENTLY DUE TO AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MID
STATE PER LAPS ANALYSIS...WHICH HAS CREATED CONTINUOUS CAA IN THE
NORTHWEST BUT STRONG WAA IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW IN THE
40S AND 50S.

WITH MODEL GUIDANCE OF LITTLE USE...HAVE BASED THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW PERIOD FORECAST HEAVILY OFF CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND RADAR IMAGERY UPSTREAM. WITH NORTHWEST MID TN REMAINING ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...APPEARS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE REST OF THE DAY AND THUS MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LATEST REPORTS INDICATE AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF
ICE HAS ACCUMULATED IN STEWART COUNTY...AND TOTAL AMOUNTS OF ONE
HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUM OR LOCALLY HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE
AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE
ALONG WITH ICY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OF
ICE ACCUM IS EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH CORRESPONDINGLY
LESSER IMPACTS.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA THE REST OF TODAY AS STRONG
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES AS K INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S DUE TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT WILL SWEEP BULK OF RAIN OUT OF THE CWA...BUT CAA IN ITS
WAKE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING.



#10
Stovepipe

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Pancho is on it, no word about Lefty yet.

 

 

002ACq5.png

 



#11
John1122

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28 degrees with enough snow flurries to dust car tops and blow around on the road.



#12
Jaxjagman

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061400-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...
BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...
SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...
LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
527 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING...AND REPORTS INDICATE A DUSTING OF SNOW
HAS FALLEN ON ROADWAYS ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INCLUDING
IN CLARKSVILLE AND SPRINGFIELD. ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...A DUSTING
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
AREA...PATCHY ICE MAY DEVELOP ON AREA ROADWAYS WHERE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF DRIVING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS ROADWAYS MAY BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.



#13
John1122

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Managed to get a heavy dusting this morning, probably 1/4th inch or so.



#14
Jaxjagman

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Some good returns showing up on radar headed to SE Valley



#15
Jaxjagman

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West of the Memphis is looking good also,hope it dont dry up



#16
1234snow

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I would assume that most of this is virga. Anyone got obs?
be3abadu.jpg

#17
Stovepipe

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33.8 here, nothing falling.



#18
kvskelton

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34 here and overcast. Nothing falling, however.

 

This morning around 9am had a few minuscule flakes.



#19
John1122

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It snowed overnight and into this morning here but the low levels have been drying out all day. Several areas of moisture moved over and produced nothing but virga here this afternoon.



#20
Reb

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Light snow filling the air in maryville

#21
dwagner88

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33 here with flurries. Not much ground truth.



#22
Stovepipe

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Light snow filling the air in maryville

 

You always rob my flizzards, always.  :blahblah:

 

Nothing here yet at 32.7.



#23
Stovepipe

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Reb you are forgiven, flurries in west Knoxville.

 

ATfWQZG.gif



#24
Reb

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light windowshield dustings now :D



#25
Jaxjagman

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Maybe this system today will over perform,we got flurries already falling



#26
John1122

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I noticed brine trucks running and some full loads of salt driving through town. Checked the forecast and saw the WWA for the OHX Plateau counties to my west. 60% snow tonight and tomorrow here. May get a surprise 1 inch out of this.

 

Sunny and 33 right now.



#27
Stovepipe

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I see The Waterboy lurking, any Arkansas obs for us?



#28
Jaxjagman

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I see The Waterboy lurking, any Arkansas obs for us?

Use the WSR,its great picking up flakes

 

http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no



#29
Jaxjagman

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Little Rock

 

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes



#30
Stovepipe

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Any obs along I-40 in the west?  Looks like flurries trickling up that way.



#31
Jaxjagman

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..EASTERN ARKANSAS...

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
JONESBORO      CLOUDY    20  12  71 N5        30.39R WCI  13
WEST MEMPHIS   CLOUDY    25  21  85 NE6       30.36R WCI  18
BATESVILLE     CLOUDY    19   9  63 CALM        N/A
NEWPORT        CLOUDY    20  10  65 NE6       30.41R WCI  12
WALNUT RIDGE   CLOUDY    19   5  53 N5        30.39R WCI  13
BLYTHEVILLE    CLOUDY    22  16  78 NE5       30.39R WCI  16
SEARCY         LGT SNOW  18  13  80 NE8       30.39F WCI   8
STUTTGART      CLOUDY    25  18  74 NE8       30.38R WCI  16
PINE BLUFF     LGT SNOW  26  19  74 NE7       30.36S WCI  18
MONTICELLO     LGT SNOW  28  25  86 N3        30.34S FOG



#32
Jaxjagman

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attachicon.gifFNMOC WXMAP North Atlantic.png

 

Pretty much wrong

 



#33
Jaxjagman

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Should be snowing right now



#34
Jaxjagman

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I'd honestly think the advisory should be cancelled in parks of Ky and extended further south..jmho



#35
BamaChemE

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I'm hoping we wake up to a light dusting in the morning here. Will take pics and post.






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