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February 4-5th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Sorry to hear that. But, hopefully things are going well for you know. :)

 

Columbus, OH set their all-time snowstorm record with the March 7-8, 2008 storm. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/events/20080308/

 

This is the H5mb ave. height anomalies for March of 2008. Now granted I'm not very good at producing these maps, you may want to consult Don S on this. But if you look at the ridge that set up just east of Alaska, plus the strong ridge just off of CA and think back to what that may have looked like at the beginning of March 2008 you could see a strong ridge over the gulf of Alaska, with a trough over the Rockies that would have likely popped a weak ridge over the SE US.  Does this familiar to what we are seeing in the Feb 2-5th 2014 time frame???? again I'm not sure, i wold like to see Don take a crack at this. I think a big storm will set up somewhere in this subfourm.

 

p68cKL0eIT.png

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And well the euro actually has a March 2008 CMH special redux. same ugly track ( Sorry Buckeye ) and all.

 

Thankfully still way out there..

 

The Euro sure blows for consistency anymore. And not just for this possible day 7+ storm. The short term changes from it this winter have been weird. 

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The chances of a big snow system somewhere from the Southern Plains to Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region is certainly there.  Based on everything I have seen I would favor the Southern portion of this sub-forum.  I don't think there is anything to be watching per se for areas basically North of I80 as it stands right now. 

 

The main question will be where the actual frontal boundary sets up that any potential system would work up along.  The overall pattern probably will be quite interesting though right through the medium range.  I think a lot of storminess is going to be working across the middle of the country.  I think most of us see multiple threats in February, and that is going to cap off a pretty great Winter for areas from Iowa and Missouri and Eastward.  I certainly won't say its been a great Winter for the Plains states as they have been relatively warm and way below normal snowfall. 

 

At this point for next week its just a matter of watching trends and adjusting the forecast and potential accordingly. 

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This is the H5mb ave. height anomalies for March of 2008. Now granted I'm not very good at producing these maps, you may want to consult Don S on this. But if you look at the ridge that set up just east of Alaska, plus the strong ridge just off of CA and think back to what that may have looked like at the beginning of March 2008 you could see a strong ridge over the gulf of Alaska, with a trough over the Rockies that would have likely popped a weak ridge over the SE US.  Does this familiar to what we are seeing in the Feb 2-5th 2014 time frame???? again I'm not sure, i wold like to see Don take a crack at this. I think a big storm will set up somewhere in this subfourm.

 

Here's the March 7, 2008 500H map. West coast ridge moved east. Don't know if that's gonna happen with this one, but who knows. Lots of time to sort things out.

 

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Here's the March 7, 2008 500H map. West coast ridge moved east. Don't know if that's gonna happen with this one, but who knows. Lots of time to sort things out.

 

attachicon.gifmarch 7, 2008 500h.gif

 

probably not a good analogy, but gave it a shot, none the less the next 30-45 days will be fun to watch as a pattern change has to happen with the higher sun angle, eventually this pattern change will produce a good storm somewhere, I hope I'm right with the early FEB storm dropping south like the GEM is showing.  The Euro suppresses every thing to far south, I think that is wrong to, it basically washes out the SE ridge.

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Just looking, my initial thoughts would be a cutter would be likely, and possibly a strong one. That would be due to a pretty decent amount of energy coming out of the Southwest and the large ridge of Alaska sending what would probably be some decent shortwaves south into the Plains, to go along with a growing SE ridge.

 

BUT, the point brought up about the confluence over much of the NE US due to the lobe of the PV extending west towards Hudson Bay does suggest a southern track isn't off the table. The ensembles show heights rising over eastern Canada and over the SE US in the 7-8 day time-frame...question is do they rise enough to allow a strong cutter to occur, or will the heights rise too slow and cause any storm track more W-E and farther south? I'm leaning a bit farther NW and possibly strong, but the farther south solution would be very interesting here for a possible ice threat.

 

GEFS mean 180 hours:

 

post-525-0-92008500-1390895699_thumb.gif

 

GEFS mean 192 hours...heights trying to rise and confluence trying to shift farther to the east ahead of the possible storm.

 

post-525-0-35443900-1390895732_thumb.gif

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Just looking, my initial thoughts would be a cutter would be likely, and possibly a strong one. That would be due to a pretty decent amount of energy coming out of the Southwest and the large ridge of Alaska sending what would probably be some decent shortwaves south into the Plains, to go along with a growing SE ridge.

 

BUT, the point brought up about the confluence over much of the NE US due to the lobe of the PV extending west towards Hudson Bay does suggest a southern track isn't off the table. The ensembles show heights rising over eastern Canada and over the SE US in the 7-8 day time-frame...question is do they rise enough to allow a strong cutter to occur, or will the heights rise too slow and cause any storm track more W-E and farther south? I'm leaning a bit farther NW and possibly strong, but the farther south solution would be very interesting here for a possible ice threat.

 

GEFS mean 180 hours:

 

 

 

GEFS mean 192 hours...heights trying to rise and confluence trying to shift farther to the east ahead of the possible storm.

 

 

 

 

I totally agree with you.  I am really surprised by tonight's output.

 

But this is also way out there. 

 

And my local area has way more wiggle room with cutting.

 

But given the trough I think it may be way to fast.  Which would side more with cutter if it's slower.

 

The remarkable similarity to the event in early January is crazy.

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