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2014 Global Temperatures


StudentOfClimatology

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DonS will probably start at projection thread at some point, but if we are doing that here to start...

 

Predictions for 2014

 

GISS: .65 Above 1950-1980 baseline

 

UAH: .3 Above 1980-2010 baseline

 

I expect neutral conditions until late summer in which then we MIGHT be able to have a weak nino by october.  This is all speculative of course.

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Weather-bell is the coolest it has been to start a month at  -.007C through the first week.

 

 

It looks like things cool off a bit more the next few days.  Then I expect things to get warmer slowly because there isn't cold enough waters out there.  Nor an insane PV over Southern Eurasia.

Just an observation, there are always massive spikes in sea surface temperature anomalies after the summer solstice in the southern and northern hemispheres. This year is getting off to a warm start down there. Cold pool off South America keeping it out of record territory.

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CFS is up to a .074C now.  Sitting around .275C on the dailies for three days now.

 

I expected a warm up but not like this.

 

The NPAC is on fire.

That warm pool in the NPAC has been semi-persistent for about a year or more. I don't think it is even possible to remove such SST anomalies quickly. 3+ C anomalies over water is alot of thermal energy.

 

In many ways it's becoming a second el nino event since it keeps expanding every month due to the massive record EPO block.

 

The entire area is simply torching along with other regions near the Arctic and in the Southern Hemisphere. You will have big problems when the ocean transitions from a net absorber of heat to a net re-leaser of heat.

 

navy-anom-bb.gif

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it has totally offset the recent ENSO 3-4 cooling.  We never see cold pools get so big and anomalous anymore. 

 

 

sst_anom.gif

 

Those are the warmest  December into January SST's on record for that small section of the NE Pacific under the record breaking ridge.

 

December time series

 

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That warm pool in the NPAC has been semi-persistent for about a year or more. I don't think it is even possible to remove such SST anomalies quickly. 3+ C anomalies over water is alot of thermal energy.

 

In many ways it's becoming a second el nino event since it keeps expanding every month due to the massive record EPO block.

 

The entire area is simply torching along with other regions near the Arctic and in the Southern Hemisphere. You will have big problems when the ocean transitions from a net absorber of heat to a net re-leaser of heat.

 

navy-anom-bb.gif

 

While it looks compelling on the anomalies, the amount of heat released into the atmosphere during a ENSO spike is much more than that of a NPAC spike.  There is so much more heat at stake in the tropics.

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Using such a targeted breakdown, isn't it possible to find a record just about any year at any one point?

 

Yes, you can pick any spot on the globe and create a chart for it. We saw record warmth

in the North Atlantic during 2010 in association with the record low AO. Temperatures have

fallen off there with the decline in blocking this past year.

 

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Somewhat irrelevant since post-ARGO temps are higher than pre-argo. The rate of increase trend seems logical when dealing with a slow process like OHC.

 

They are, but who knows where we really started from. You would laugh if you saw the monitoring network today to even 10 years ago.

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There is no direct correlation between global temps and OHC but I imagine there is a general consensus trend between them. OHC was probably much lower pre-1990.

 

OHC was sky-rocketing upward until a higher resolution measuring network started up. Actually, ARGO showed a drop in OHC and is currently adjusted UPWARD to the level you see now. 

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OHC was sky-rocketing upward until a higher resolution measuring network started up. Actually, ARGO showed a drop in OHC and is currently adjusted UPWARD to the level you see now. 

I would not be surprised if the drop is just an anomaly and that we have been on a continuous OHC increase for decades. 1998 El Nino probably fooled the low resolution observations, which exaggerated the warm anomalies.

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