Jump to content

Posted Image


Photo

January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
1616 replies to this topic

#1436
needbiggerboat

  • 1,208 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

The synoptic and QPF trends, if they can be called that, are certainly happening at the right time for more snow.

For IAD and nearby, I could see equal odds of sprinkles/dusting or 2-4 inches, maybe a bit more with well placed banding (if it makes it this far west).

#1437
yoda

  • Aristotle approves of the past snowstorm

  • 24,641 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

On the way back from Buffalo... it was cold and snowy. Temp was 10 when I left... entering NW PA now. Hoping to come back to some snowfall. GFS looks good

#1438
H2O

  • Weather: It's a crap chute

  • 14,024 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

 

and an avg of .46" :(



#1439
ThePhotoGuy

  • 2,365 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

 

Interesting list, anyone have one for BWI?



#1440
leesburg 04

  • 5,641 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Hanging out at 30-31 depending on station...warmest is jyo at 32

#1441
BTRWx

  • BTRWx

  • 1,017 posts
  • Joined November 29, 2010

The freezing line currently runs roughly from NW baltimore burbs through IAD...DC proper is 34-35..who knows about DCA...they could be up to 37

That is about where I am sitting ~10 miles south of the District.



#1442
midatlanticweather

  • 689 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

In Purcellville as well - we are looking at an inch I think at best - unless the fluffy stuff hits - I always want snow, but I would hope DC gets in some banding and breaks the streak. Do some Jeb Walking!!!!



#1443
Fozz

  • 14,907 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

 

depressing :(



#1444
HighStakes

  • 1,011 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

oh yeah? I assumed Id be too far west to see the good stuff.

Models are getting wetter with the early band of precip up here before 0z. Temps will not be a problem for you.  Snow should stick for us right away. It will be a close call on bands that develop later, but history says you be good. I wouldn't be surprised if northern md wakes up to temps around 5 degrees. My guess is 3-4 inches is a good bet.



#1445
TerpWeather

  • 63 posts
  • Joined March 4, 2013

DCA just reported 37 exactly FYI,

BWI 33 and IAD 32



#1446
snow.

  • 2,403 posts
  • Joined October 25, 2013

DCA up to 37...they should make 40-42 easily



#1447
mapgirl

  • 17,759 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Models are getting wetter with the early band of precip up here before 0z. Temps will not be a problem for you.  Snow should stick for us right away. It will be a close call on bands that develop later, but history says you be good. I wouldn't be surprised if northern md wakes up to temps around 5 degrees. My guess is 3-4 inches is a good bet.

 

Yeah, I'm not too worried about temps. Even if we make it above freezing, which I think we will (though not by much), it should stick pretty quickly. I worry about the gradient.

 

who am I kidding? I'm not worried at all, it will snow however much it snows.



#1448
Solo2

  • 1,121 posts
  • Joined November 27, 2010

Sitting at about 31.5 or so....



#1449
yoda

  • Aristotle approves of the past snowstorm

  • 24,641 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

DCA 37... right... its laughable at times how they are constantly 4 to 6 degrees warmer than surrounding reporting stations at times

#1450
Ian

  • 35,903 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

DCA up to 37...they should make 40-42 easily

They might eke out a 0.3" 



#1451
snow.

  • 2,403 posts
  • Joined October 25, 2013

DCA 37... right... its laughable at times how they are constantly 4 to 6 degrees warmer than surrounding reporting stations at times

 

all the surrounding stations are 35-36



#1452
snow.

  • 2,403 posts
  • Joined October 25, 2013

They might eke out a 0.3" 

 

I think I am going with 0.7" for now since they haven't recorded one in the last 17 events, but maybe that is too ambitious...we both know I can measure 1" on a picnic table and DCA will pop out a 0.4"



#1453
stormtracker

  • My milkshake brought nothing to the yard

  • 20,734 posts
  • Joined November 9, 2010

Kinda surprised at the GFS.   I'd like to see the Euro come in as wet.  Still liking an inch for DC



#1454
leesburg 04

  • 5,641 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

If Matt and Ian and other DC guys get 2+" who gives a squat if DCA reports 0.8

#1455
HighStakes

  • 1,011 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Yeah, I'm not too worried about temps. Even if we make it above freezing, which I think we will (though not by much), it should stick pretty quickly. I worry about the gradient.

 

who am I kidding? I'm not worried at all, it will snow however much it snows.

Yeah, no point in getting caught up in the details just enjoy the event. I'm thinking we might luck out with the initial band and pick up a quick inch or so before others but that's just a hunch.



#1456
usedtobe

  • 7,370 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

all the surrounding stations are 35-36

I'm 37 so I don't think DCA is that far off. 



#1457
snow.

  • 2,403 posts
  • Joined October 25, 2013

They might eke out a 0.3" 

 

you think we can get a band once the temps plummet into the 20s?



#1458
yoda

  • Aristotle approves of the past snowstorm

  • 24,641 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

all the surrounding stations are 35-36


I see that... but watch as we go into the evening when places are 32/33 around DCA and DCA is like 38

#1459
Fozz

  • 14,907 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

Interesting list, anyone have one for BWI?

 

2/21-22/11 - 2.5"

1/9/12 - 0.4"

1/21/12 - 0.9"

2/11/12 - 0.5"

12/26/12 - 1.0"

12/29/12 - 0.4"

1/24/13 - 2.0"

1/25/13 - 0.9"

2/2/13 - 0.3"

2/13/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 3.2"

12/8/13 - 1.6"

12/10/13 - 1.3"



#1460
Ian

  • 35,903 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

you think we can get a band once the temps plummet into the 20s?

I haven't really looked at much since the GFS last night. Maybe? Road trip east? ;) 



#1461
usedtobe

  • 7,370 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

Here's the latest CWG forecast and map.  Should have my quote as soon as Jason drops it in. 

 

http://www.washingto...ght-the-latest/



#1462
mapgirl

  • 17,759 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Yeah, no point in getting caught up in the details just enjoy the event. I'm thinking we might luck out with the initial band and pick up a quick inch or so before others but that's just a hunch.

 

in my experience thus far, that seems to happen every time.



#1463
BTRWx

  • BTRWx

  • 1,017 posts
  • Joined November 29, 2010

DCA 37... right... its laughable at times how they are constantly 4 to 6 degrees warmer than surrounding reporting stations at times

From the Wundermap obs, DCA is within 2 degrees of many surrounding stations on this side of the pond, but the airport is closest to the Potomac. It's funny how my Weatherwise Instruments station has been right in line with DCA since I have installed it back in September.



#1464
HighStakes

  • 1,011 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

2/21-22/11 - 2.5"

1/9/12 - 0.4"

1/21/12 - 0.9"

2/11/12 - 0.5"

12/26/12 - 1.0"

12/29/12 - 0.4"

1/24/13 - 2.0"

1/25/13 - 0.9"

2/2/13 - 0.3"

2/13/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 3.2"

12/8/13 - 1.6"

12/10/13 - 1.3"

BWI didn't report anything on 3/6/13?



#1465
Bob Chill

  • Kickin it old school...finally

  • 14,773 posts
  • Joined November 29, 2010

you think we can get a band once the temps plummet into the 20s?

 

It sure looks like they will. How much falls is a wildcard. And if it's windy all bets are off. 

 

Sitting @ 34 here. Cautiously optimistic for 1-2" here. And most importantly.....it will stick on the streets....for once. 



#1466
BTRWx

  • BTRWx

  • 1,017 posts
  • Joined November 29, 2010

Yeah, no point in getting caught up in the details just enjoy the event. I'm thinking we might luck out with the initial band and pick up a quick inch or so before others but that's just a hunch.

The details is what makes things so interesting. :)



#1467
Fozz

  • 14,907 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

BWI didn't report anything on 3/6/13?

 

Nope, just a trace. 



#1468
wxdude64

  • 1,185 posts
  • Joined October 28, 2012

Moisture reaching ground in WV, snowing at 'Shoe and Caanan. Elkins reporting mix and 31.

Beckley and Bluefield rain and 40 degrees.

Edit-also snowing in Highland County on traffic cam.



#1469
NE Balti Zen

  • GreatLakesLow Zen

  • 3,283 posts
  • Joined November 15, 2010

Here's the latest CWG forecast and map.  Should have my quote as soon as Jason drops it in. 

 

http://www.washingto...ght-the-latest/

 

Woo hoo! Just barely into dark purple on the map! I vote boom!



#1470
ravensrule

  • 6,681 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

Here's the latest CWG forecast and map.  Should have my quote as soon as Jason drops it in. 

 

http://www.washingto...ght-the-latest/

Nice map Wes, i like the 25% chance of 4-8". Apparently WXUSAF gets no love dusting-2"





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users