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Snow/Ice Event 10-9/10-10 Miss/TN/Alabama


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#1
John1122

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Currently 34 degrees here at my area on the Northern Cumberland Plateau. Under a WWA for ZR/Sleet/Snow. 

 

Moisture returns are showing up fairly nicely to the SW. OHX has mentioned the possibility of upgrading the WWA to a Winter Storm Warning for their Southern and Eastern portions.



#2
John1122

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Heavy rain reported in N.Miss. Rain in N. Alabama. Reports of sleet/snow across Southern Middle TN.  Temps are generally in the mid-upper 30s in the rain areas. Low to mid 30s in the snow/sleet areas. 



#3
Stovepipe

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It's happening.

 

O0LjPpk.gif

 

10gin1g.jpg



#4
tnweathernut

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Interesting that there is lightning involved.

ugezyda9.jpg


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#5
1234snow

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Temp now at 40 as the cold air at the surface slowly works in from the northwest. Have that feeling that it won't pan out but should be fun to watch. QPF has slightly increased on last few runs and radar looks good. Cumberland plateau should get 2-4 inches after the switch (if it doesn't start as snow) as temps already are at freezing.

#6
John1122

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I'm hoping that we get more snow/sleet instead of the .1 to .3 of zr that is currently forecast. It appears that for my area we get probably .3-.4 per the NAM with 850s at or below 32. 



#7
Stovepipe

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The HRRR's thoughts on the situation in terms of snowfall:

 

VNKEmRn.png



#8
metalicwx366

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Woohoo!! Rooting for Washington DC. They haven't had an 1+ snowfall since January 2011. They deserve this.

#9
calculus1

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OK, you guys are just intentionally messing with me regarding these titles now.  :)



#10
Reb

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OK, you guys are just intentionally messing with me regarding these titles now.  :)

LOL. Its all good bro, even I forget sometimes that this is americanwx instead of ncwx :D

 

Cumberland Plateau looks to be a pretty scene in the AM



#11
John1122

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This is shaping up to be an impacting event for these areas and there was no thread for it at all. So I figured it was needed. 

 

JKL's evening discussion says that their I-75 corridor counties in Southern KY have the potential to see up to 4 inches in areas where it's all snow. 

 

How much rain/zr/sleet falls will have a big impact of potential accums of course. It's going to be close for any area East of I-75/South of 1-40 on getting much frozen to accumulate.



#12
Stovepipe

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OK, you guys are just intentionally messing with me regarding these titles now.  :)

 

Granted the month could be changed from 10 to 12, but it's perfectly cromulent.  :)



#13
John1122

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Granted the month could be changed from 10 to 12, but it's perfectly cromulent.  :)

Heh it was an homage to the VA snow thread. 

 

Actually I had a brain lock apparently. I also meant to add OBS to the thread. If the mods could change it to 12-9/12-10 and add OBS I'd appreciate it.



#14
jburns

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Granted the month could be changed from 10 to 12, but it's perfectly cromulent.  :)

 

The Simpsons?   How 90s.



#15
calculus1

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Granted the month could be changed from 10 to 12, but it's perfectly cromulent.  :)

 

OK, you just embiggened my vocabulary with that one, Stovepipe.  I confess I had to look it up.  :D



#16
Stovepipe

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The Simpsons?   How 90s.

 

Keep it to banter burns, this is our thread.  :guitar:



#17
John1122

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Per Huntsville WFO, they are seeing a rain/sleet/snow mix in Northern Alabama. Tupelo, Miss is also reporting "unknown" precip. The freezing line is in Southern Middle TN and lined up along the western edge of the Plateau.



#18
zippity

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37F and rain in Madison, AL. Sent from my KFTT [b][/b] HD

#19
Stovepipe

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According to the RAP, it looks to me like 850 temps might be good to go for the plateau for several hours of snow.  The valley might see a token flake.  Hard to say how much ice will muck with things though as temps drop.  Temp up to 40 now from 38 here earlier.  Not expecting anything noteworthy for Knoxville.



#20
John1122

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Precip is about to overtake my area, I've dropped to 33 degrees. It looks like it goes from almost nothing to pretty heavy precip, pretty quickly. 



#21
John1122

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I would guess the bright bands around Crossville may be sleet. The temp was 32 there at last obs before the precip moved into their area.



#22
jburns

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Keep it to banter burns, this is our thread.  :guitar:

 

Ah.  Yes, that does explain the 20 year lag.    :guitar:



#23
John1122

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Sleet being reported in Cookeville now. Things look to get nasty on the Plateau to the Eastern Highland Rim in Tennessee.



#24
Stovepipe

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Sleet being reported in Cookeville now. Things look to get nasty on the Plateau to the Eastern Highland Rim in Tennessee.

 

How did that precip start up your way John?  Obviously cold rain here now but I'm curious at your elevation. 

 

Dropped to 39.



#25
John1122

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It's not reaching the ground here yet surprisingly enough. 



#26
John1122

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Just started here, it's sleet/rain and 34, the temp went up a degree right before the precip started reaching the surface. I wouldn't be shocked to see several hours of rain, as my sounding was on the borderline.



#27
Stovepipe

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Just started here, it's sleet/rain and 34, the temp went up a degree right before the precip started reaching the surface. I wouldn't be shocked to see several hours of rain, as my sounding was on the borderline.

 

Seems legit.

 

dxqhs.jpg

 

Hopefully I wake up to a backend flizzard and you end up with a couple of inches.  Probably the best we can hope for with this one.



#28
John1122

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It's basically all sleet now, not sure how long that'll last. Crossville is reporting freezing rain and 33 degrees. Seems a bit impossible basically. It was 32 there but their temp also bumped a degree as precip moved into the area.



#29
John1122

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Snowing in Nashville, it's been an odd year with almost all the wintery weather happening from Nashville and points west, while the higher elevations in Eastern Tennessee have mostly missed out and just had the copious rain.



#30
Amos83

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have a very light dusting of snow here just east of Nashville.. temp is currently 30.



#31
Carvers Gap

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Some ice pellets fell this AM. Not a great trajectory for the northern valley. Still, it is early December and the is the fourth time I have had frozen stuff falling from the sky this year.

#32
Stovepipe

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Both the 12z and 18z GFS want to put down an inch of snow in east TN Friday night.  We might have us another marginal event to track!



#33
John1122

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I ended up with about 1/4th inch of snow over a light glaze of ice. A few people actually ran across some slick spots on the roads from it this morning as they were taking their kids to school. Most of the county was mainly just wet.

 

I just can't trust any of the models this year in these marginal situations like the potential one Friday night. They cool the column too quickly and end up showing more snow than actually happens. 



#34
Stovepipe

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I hear you John. I love the over-acheivers like the quick hitting mid January storm of 2011. That one was modeled to move across the state as a snow to rain situation, and it was, until it hit the plateau. I was sitting in my office at UT around 3pm watching the heavy wet flakes start, expecting it to switch to rain any minute like the short range models showed. It never did and I drove home in some of the heaviest, whiteout, 35-40 dbz snow that I've ever seen. Slid home on a prayer and ended up with 3-4 inches and a huge snowman to show for it.

Modeling is often off base and occasionally those fun surprises can happen in marginal setups. I hope to see another like that this season.




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