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December 13-14th Winter Storm


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#316
toronto blizzard

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We'll see what happens in the next few days as the pieces of energy get fully sampled. We'll get a clear picture by this time Friday in determining if we get a minor snowfall (1-2") or a moderate snowfall (4+").

Also got to keep an eye on the potential for lake effect snow of lake ontario and an arctic front which could enhance accumulations.

 

NAM is 3-6'' for us verbatim.



#317
A-L-E-K

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Not expecting a full phase with this one at this point, that potential is long gone, however any interaction between the 2 waves is golden. We need the southern stream wave to be further north for the region as it brings the moisture up here, without that it will be another clipper fail.

 

 

ok gotcha, I wasn't sure what you were on the board for. This is definitely a step in the right direction for those on the border

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#318
Toronto4

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Also got to keep an eye on the potential for lake effect snow of lake ontario and an arctic front which could enhance accumulations.

NAM is 3-6'' for us verbatim.


Yeah, models keep hinting at a small wave passing by our area Friday afternoon. That could give us an inch or so before the main show on Saturday.

#319
Thundersnow12

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nicely done by RC from LOT

 

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A  
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC...DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND  
ESSENTIALLY EJECTING THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT AN INVERTED GULF COAST  
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD  
DEAL OF MOISTURE COULD LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE  
TROUGH...SETTING UP GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS  
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES  
AS EARLY AS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF  
THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY SO UNCERTAINTY...PARTICULARLY  
IN THE MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL HIGH. AT THIS  
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER FAVORED AREAS FOR BETTER  
COUPLING OF THE LARGER SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY AREA. CURRENT ESTIMATES...SUCH AS THE  
GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 5 OR 6  
INCHES ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE  
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...MORE EXACT AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED  
OUT AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON ANY OF THE MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF  
THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 



#320
Thundersnow12

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ok gotcha, I wasn't sure what you were on the board for. This is definitely a step in the right direction for those on the border

 

nice front end band of snow on that run



#321
Snowstorms

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I think we in Toronto have to be realistic. Remember that the storm on February 8th was one of the biggest synoptic snowstorms to hit the downtown Toronto area since the Second World War, with only 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 ranking up with it. 10-12" snowfalls are rare in Toronto. The models always show us getting a lot of snow - especially the NAM - only to have them back off as the system gets closer. I'm going with 2" with this one.

 

Yeah but you missed the most recent snowy winter, 2007-08, which did have storms above 12". 2000-01 was also a winter that featured some decent snowfall but i was only in Elementary school at that time so my memory aint that great, lol. 

 

On average, we often do see 6-10" events every Winter, with the outside chance of something greater. Seeing something in the 3-6" is most common by far. 

 

The latest Nam showed something far better than what other models depicted. If it were exploited further I would suspect 5-8" on the Nam in Toronto.  



#322
nwohweather

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5-8" looks pretty good for this weekend, great runs by the NAM. It has been much too long here that I've had to use a snowblower, have not the last two winters



#323
harrisale

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OB missed a couple of storms on that list. 2007, 1984, etc.

 

Playing a show in Stratford on Saturday so I won't be at home again for this event, but at least I'll be close by and could still get into some good accums, minus any lake effect from easterlies.



#324
TimChgo9

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nicely done by RC from LOT

 

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A  
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC...DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND  
ESSENTIALLY EJECTING THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT AN INVERTED GULF COAST  
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD  
DEAL OF MOISTURE COULD LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE  
TROUGH...SETTING UP GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS  
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES  
AS EARLY AS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF  
THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY SO UNCERTAINTY...PARTICULARLY  
IN THE MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL HIGH. AT THIS  
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER FAVORED AREAS FOR BETTER  
COUPLING OF THE LARGER SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY AREA. CURRENT ESTIMATES...SUCH AS THE  
GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 5 OR 6  
INCHES ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE  
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...MORE EXACT AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED  
OUT AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON ANY OF THE MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF  
THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 

Good write up. 

 

1"-3" north of I-80 would be my guess.....



#325
IthielZ

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5-8" looks pretty good for this weekend, great runs by the NAM. It has been much too long here that I've had to use a snowblower, have not the last two winters

 

Good Ol' Bowling Green, my place of origin.

I'd like to just use the shovel for the first time this season. Not much of a purpose to owning a snowblower here in the city.



#326
Gilbertfly

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Gulf of Alaska LP stronger than what the 12Z GFS progged it to be at 18Z today...984 vs. 980 ..... not a ton...but considering it's only 6 hours into it's run....



#327
Hoosier

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Gulf of Alaska LP stronger than what the 12Z GFS progged it to be at 18Z today...984 vs. 980 ..... not a ton...but considering it's only 6 hours into it's run....

 

 

It could be a resolution issue depending on what site you're using (NCEP is probably worst in that regard).  For instance the one I'm looking at for the 12z GFS had it at 982 mb for 18z.



#328
Gilbertfly

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It could be a resolution issue depending on what site you're using (NCEP is probably worst in that regard). For instance the one I'm looking at for the 12z GFS had it at 982 mb for 18z.


Ah ok....quite true....thanks

#329
Angrysummons

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long range modeling loves to overblow pac ridging. A annoying feature if solved, would increase the models viability in the 120+ timeframe majorly. that said, I don't think it means much with this system as the s/w's overrunning with the departing arctic front is the key to driving moisture into the circulation.



#330
afterimage

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Not shocked at all that the southern stream is slower, the models are finally catching up to what I suspected would happen a few days ago.

+1 good call   like your insights



#331
cyclone77

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Really riding the edge here with this thing.  Natural first call is for 1-3".



#332
Chicago Storm

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LOT...

 

c6bv.jpg



#333
The_Global_Warmer

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For now going with 1-4" here with a mix of snow and sleet then drizzle or FZDR if its cool enough.



#334
Geos

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Skilling showed this tonight. Assuming it's the RPM given the GFS or NAM isn't that far north.

 

post-2499-0-31472200-1386808668.png



#335
IWXwx

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5-8" looks pretty good for this weekend, great runs by the NAM. It has been much too long here that I've had to use a snowblower, have not the last two winters

 

I'm hoping that you're right, but I'm being a little more pessimistic. 3"-5" is my call for NE IN and NW OH.



#336
TimChgo9

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I will stick with 1"-3" for now, for LOT areas north of I-80



#337
mimillman

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I will stick with 1"-3" for now, for LOT areas north of I-80

Good call. I agree.

#338
Indystorm

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I think I'll go with 5-6 here in Michiana.  Supposed to have heavier totals east of Chicago so we shall see.



#339
weatherbo

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Skilling showed this tonight. Assuming it's the RPM given the GFS or NAM isn't that far north.

 

post-2499-0-31472200-1386808668.png

RPM is/has always been a crack whore tho.



#340
wisconsinwx

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Weatherbo, it underperformed with the storm on Sunday. Not many were predicted to see more than 2".

#341
IWXwx

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RPM is/has always been a crack whore tho.

 

Imagine what it would predict for your area!



#342
IWXwx

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Weatherbo, it underperformed with the storm on Sunday. Not many were predicted to see more than 2".

 

I can count on one hand the number of times that's happened.



#343
snowstormcanuck

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N of I-80 crowd is going to need to start seeing at least small shifts in the models back towards phasing if this is to become anything. If the 0z suite doesn't budge it may be time to start throwing in the towel. At least for anything AOA 3".



#344
Hoosier

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N of I-80 crowd is going to need to start seeing at least small shifts in the models back towards phasing if this is to become anything. If the 0z suite doesn't budge it may be time to start throwing in the towel. At least for anything AOA 3".

 

 

00z NAM just might take a favorable baby step for the northern crowd.  Wave looks a touch slower than 18z and the kicker looks farther west as well.



#345
snowstormcanuck

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Through 42 hours, the only change I see is that the NAM has slowed down the progression of those two waves in the southern stream over the SW somewhat.



#346
snowstormcanuck

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00z NAM just might take a favorable baby step for the northern crowd.  Wave looks a touch slower than 18z and the kicker looks farther west as well.

 

Well, at least I don't need new glasses. :)



#347
Chicago Storm

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The 0z NAM is a positive step.

 

Wave diving into the west actually digs into the SW a bit, allowing the inital wave to do a bit more



#348
toronto blizzard

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The 21z SREF are amped too if that means anything.



#349
snowstormcanuck

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The 0z NAM is a positive step.

 

Wave diving into the west actually digs into the SW a bit, allowing the inital wave to do a bit more

 

Too bad that initial wave is there in the first place. Really suppresses the SE ridge more than is ideal.



#350
Hoosier

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If the 54 hr panel is any indication, this run might be pretty juiced. 





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