Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

My Winter Outlook 2013-14


Recommended Posts

Best write up this winter's forecast that I've seen so far.  I have been thinking about the -EPO for the last three weeks myself, but haven't taken the time to do the research, thank you so much.  Isotherm, I have a question for you, I have been thinking about providing a link to Paul Douglas of Weather Nation, if he likes it's he may provide a link to it in  his blog that gets published in the Minneapolis Tribune, would you have a problem with that? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awesome as always Tom. Hit nail on the head in regards to -EPO and a mostly plus +AO/NAO state although I think we'll see a decent period of negative departures during the second half. We'll see what happens.

 

 

Very nice write-up Isotherm.  Good luck with your forecast.

 

 

Best write up this winter's forecast that I've seen so far.  I have been thinking about the -EPO for the last three weeks myself, but haven't taken the time to do the research, thank you so much.  Isotherm, I have a question for you, I have been thinking about providing a link to Paul Douglas of Weather Nation, if he likes it's he may provide a link to it in  his blog that gets published in the Minneapolis Tribune, would you have a problem with that? 

 

 

Thanks for the kind words guys! Hopefully it works out as expected

 

Minnesota, I appreciate it, and I would not mind that at all. Thank you for that compliment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isotherm, another reason I think you are right with the EPO being a major player is our lack of Indian summer up here. Most years up here once we get get our 1st hard freeze we see temps rebound quite nicely to say around 70°, this year it didn't happen and why didn't it with such a positive AO and week MJO signal? I blame it on the EPO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fantastic write-up! The format is very readable and flows very professionally too. One question on the snow map. Did the UP of Michigan get left off of snowier by accident. Gonna presume ya, since snow stopping right at the state line would be quite the sight to behold - ha! Thanks again for the nice work (especially in a year that's looking positive for my region).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fantastic write-up! The format is very readable and flows very professionally too. One question on the snow map. Did the UP of Michigan get left off of snowier by accident. Gonna presume ya, since snow stopping right at the state line would be quite the sight to behold - ha! Thanks again for the nice work (especially in a year that's looking positive for my region).

 

 

Nice write up Isotherm! Enjoyed reading it. My thoughts are not too far from your own.

 

 

Thanks guys! And yes rogue, the UP should be in snowier than normal, didn't even notice that. Sharp cut-offs this year.  :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...

VERIFICATION

The resultant 500mb pattern for the Dec-Jan-Feb period 2013-14 looked like this:

comphour_G24zf9lmIX.gif

It was similar to the analog package with the mean trough centered near the Mid-west, and ridges along both the West and East Coasts of the USA.

The expectation for an overall positive NAO, positive AO, near neutral PNA, and negative EPO, generally verified very well.

The negative EPO provided a one month period of very cold weather on the East Coast from about Jan 20th-Feb 20th.

The flaw in the forecast was that the center of the cold anomalies, as predicted to be in the northern Plains, was slightly further east, near the Western Lakes. This meant the entire pattern (ridge/trough orientation) was slightly east of forecast, and so the baroclinic zone generally aligned itself just east of the I-95 corridor rather than along it. The subtle difference at H5 resulted in meaningful differences at the surface, as the I-95 corridor ended up being colder and snowier than I anticipated. With that being said, the expectation of significant moderation in temps toward the east and west coasts compared to the Mid-west was correct. The record cold was confined to the Lakes/Mid-west.

DJF-2013-14-TEMP.png

Precipitation ended up similar to forecast, with drier than normal conditions for the West and much of the South, while wetter than normal prevailed from the Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

Last3mPDeptUS.png

In summation, this winter’s forecast went well in the overall sense in my opinion, with the teleconnection outlooks verifying (-EPO, +NAO, +AO, etc). The NYC metro area generally finished with slightly colder than normal DJF period, as per the temperature departure map above. This was slightly colder than expected. Snowfall is always the most difficult factor and will be weighted lighted, but it was much snowier than anticipated for the immediate east coast. The expected heavy snows for the interior Northeast aligned near I-95 frequently.

My assessment of this winter’s outlook, 2013-14, is a grade of B/B- overall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...