usedtobe Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't think anyone is dismissing any of the solutions out of hand. The Euro seems to be on one extreme end of the envelope of possible solutions. The 06Z GFS may be towards the other end but none are out of play yet. My own feeling is that the euro is probably an outlier but it has had an amped solution for several runs now so you can't completely dismiss it. Nothing really has changed since yesterday's CWG discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS initialized. Will it still be no show or lead the pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 WxMan1...very helpful info on the Euro ensembles! Thanks! There's really no reason to put stock in the Euro solution right now. It has little support, from it's own Ensembles or any other major model, and it's a hard to expect a slow/deep system with this fast progressive flow. I think if we want snow, we should be hoping for some lift after the frontal passage aided by the vorticity rotating through. It seems like the cold air is a lock, so I think hoping for moisture is the way to go. And once again we find ourselves in this position. It will be interesting to see by the end of winter just how many times this will have been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 And once again we find ourselves in this position. It will be interesting to see by the end of winter just how many times this will have been the case. I think having a cold air column and struggling for moisture is not the scenario I'd expect with a possible snowfall in November. I'd expect the reverse more often...ample moisture and a very marginal column. Similar to our March events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 12z GFS has nada. Side note...can we stop saying this is a Day 6 or 7 event? GFS has fropa in under 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Time to change the ridiculous title. I couldn't be less surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS vs Euro Round 1 of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Time to change the ridiculous title. I couldn't be less surprised. Mid November Cool Breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Look closely at 105hr, gfs tries to form a low in eastern GA then lost it, may be slowly catching on to solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS vs Euro Round 1 of winter. This is a 10-7 round for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Whoa are u from the future? What's the stock market do next week? I think the support for amped up Euro solution is pretty low. If the ensembles were more on board, I think this place would be rocking. The GFS does tend to have it's hiccups between 84-148 hours with winter storms, but right now it's progressive solution tends to have more support from the Euro ens, GFS, and Canadian. I'd be happy with some conversational flakes down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 6z on left / 12z on right. Very minute differences. Still way too progressive but slightly better on both sides of the trough. Euro closes off a bowling ball in the same location at the base. I don't think we stand a chance at anything unless 5h closes off. Flow out in front is too progressive otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 6z on left / 12z on right. Very minute differences. Still way too progressive but slightly better on both sides of the trough. Euro closes off a bowling ball in the same location at the base. I don't think we stand a chance at anything unless 5h closes off. Flow out in front is too progressive otherwise. 6z12z.JPG Those aren't the same height lines either. The trough on the 12 z is a good bit deeper, sharper. Still looks too little too late. Was the Euro a good storm? I haven't seen any maps for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Those aren't the same height lines either. The trough on the 12 z is a good bit deeper, sharper. Still looks too little too late. Was the Euro a good storm? I haven't seen any maps for it. It's worlds apart; The panel before it shows a much less progressive pattern on the front too allowing h5 to get all wrapped up. It's a possible solution but I wouldn't put any chips on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's worlds apart; 0zeuro.JPG The panel before it shows a much less progressive pattern on the front too allowing h5 to get all wrapped up. It's a possible solution but I wouldn't put any chips on it. Appears to be worlds apart in the northern plains as well. That looks like it plays a role in what's happening in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Doors closing on whatever chance this threat has left... GGEM/UKIE say no thanks... so 12z EURO will prob lose it and we can then wait till December for real snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Appears to be worlds apart in the northern plains as well. That looks like it plays a role in what's happening in our neck of the woods. It's more than just that though. There is a significant difference in handling the closed low in SE canada as it heads to the maritimes. The euro is further W and slower allowing heights to push further northward on the front of the trough. GFS has moved far away from that idea and seems pretty set on a progressive flow out in front giving little chance at anything happening until well out to sea. I'm not feeling this one. I want to believe but I probably won't buy in until my grass is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Doors closing on whatever chance this threat has left... GGEM/UKIE say no thanks... so 12z EURO will prob lose it and we can then wait till December for real snow chances Just as well. Still have plenty of leaves to mow, some other outdoor stuff that needs to be finalized. Really wish it would stay warm until Thanksgiving. Still have to wait a day or two on the snow part I guess, but it sure looks like the cold is a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Just as well. Still have plenty of leaves to mow, some other outdoor stuff that needs to be finalized. Really wish it would stay warm until Thanksgiving. Still have to wait a day or two on the snow part I guess, but it sure looks like the cold is a done deal. Yeah, before today I was considering the possibility of having to hang my outdoor Christmas lights this weekend in advance of a potential snow (if there is a chance to see my decorations in the snow, then I must take advantage). I don't care what the Euro continues to show, I see the date on the calendar, the state of the indices, and have read enough skilled analysis on here to know this thing is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro?? thru 96 probably a whiff per Orh wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 dry fropa next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 thru 96 probably a whiff per Orh wxman GFS wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Always weary when the gfs isn't enthusiastically on board. At least it'll feel like winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Always weary when the gfs isn't enthusiastically on board. At least it'll feel like winter! I mean it is early November... lol We hardly even get systems this time of year anyways. Be nice just to see a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Still closes it off around 138, but surface low is offshore and heads ene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro caved to the gfs on the important features. At least the really cold dry air is still locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Are we still taking this seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 He'll say the euro was right all along He is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 OK - Now save this thread and have it on repeat this year? I HOPE NOT, but last 2 years this is the story! Now you see it, now you don't! Queue Charlie brown trying to kick a foot ball! Charlie Brown football thing doesn't apply here at all-- that's for the day-of type misses that we're pretty good at. Having a storm disappear off a model 4-5 days out is nothing out of the ordinary nor distressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.