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The One True 2013-14 Winter Outlook Thread


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#36
nchighcountrywx

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Not sure what this means for our 2013-2014 Winter, but something of interest to review:

 

From Baker Perry at ASU:

http://www2.wataugad...-1929-id-012974

Boone's 11th October snow since 1929
by Anna Oakes

Between a half-inch and inch of snow coated the grass and fallen leaves in Boone Friday morning -- a cold shock to tourists, perhaps, but likely not a surprise to locals. Halloween week will mark the one-year anniversary of the infamous Hurricane Sandy-spawned snowstorm that dumped nearly a half-foot of snow on the area, after all.


But snow in October -- measurable snow, at least -- is not as common in Boone as the past few seasons would lead you to believe.


Appalachian State University geography professor Baker Perry noted that the National Weather Service cooperative observer station in Boone has reported measurable snowfall (which is a tenth of an inch or more) in October for 11 of the 85 years since 1929.

"That is approximately 13 percent of the years," Perry said.


Measurable snow has fallen in Boone in three of the last six Octobers, he noted, including a tenth of an inch on Oct. 28, 2008, last year's "Frankenstorm" and this year's event.


The earliest measurable snow recorded in Boone was on Oct. 17, 1977, when two inches fell, said Robert Stonefield, meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg, Va.

Of course, October snows are undoubtedly more common in the High Country's higher-elevated communities, including Beech Mountain, Sugar Mountain and others.


Friday's snow ushered in a frigid drop in temperatures, bottoming out at 19 degrees at Watauga Medical Center between 5:30 and 7:30 a.m. Saturday, according to National Weather Service data.


Icy conditions caused a few slick spots on the roads Friday morning, contributing to a handful of vehicle accidents, staff at the Watauga County Communications Center said. In Avery County, schools were on a two-hour delay.


Since 1975, Watauga County Schools have closed for inclement weather on five October days, according to the school system's website, but the data does not indicate if the closings were because of snow or because of other types of weather.


Temperatures are forecasted to rebound this week, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows in the 40s, according to NWS. 



#37
tarheelwx

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Up until about a month ago, I had been really optimistic regarding the upcoming winter.  Things really reminded me of a few winters back when we had the really wet pattern as we headed into winter.  Well, its been very dry the last 6 weeks or so.  Add to that the fact that for the 3rd year in a row, we had some very cold air along with some snow on the east coast - we know how the last 2 winters turned out.  So, as of now I'm hoping we see a return to the wet weather with a trough in the east like we've seen through much of 2013 up until early September. 

TW



#38
Brick Tamland

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Well, it figures the spring and summer would be cooler and wetter than normal, and this winter will end up warmer and drier than normal. I should have know better than to be optimistic. Instead of the cooler and wetter spring and summer pointing to a good winter for snow, I should have known that it would turn the opposite just in time for winter.



#39
nchighcountrywx

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Statistically speaking, more often than not, a colder than normal October (as we are wrapping up), foretells a winter (Dec - Feb) that will not be as cold relative to anomalies.

 

Therefore, if this holds true, our winter will be slightly colder than normal but not as cold as October was relative to averages.

 

Look for some great events, good events, busts and extreme busts at times over the winter.   Should be used to it by now!



#40
Brick Tamland

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This October seems to be like a roller coaster around here, though. One week it was cool and in the 60s, and the next week it was warmer and near 80.



#41
MichaelJ

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I think that the NE and Great Lakes areas will have a banner year with a colder and much snowier winter than normal this year due to some persistent high latitude blocking off Greenland and a predominate ridge in the Western US. Unfortunately, I see the SE ridge blocking most of the colder air and storm track for our part of the world with only occasional outbreaks of cold and storminess and thus would look for our winter to average slightly above normal (with the possibility of it being much warmer than normal) from Va., southward. I do think the storm track will run west of the Appalachians for the most part which should bring us some good rains but little wintry precipitation. We will likely have a 2-3 week period of  wintry weather possibilities in late Jan-Feb but not much else to crow about. I expect March to start out coolish but quickly turn very warm with some unfortunate outbreaks into April of severe weather in the South followed by unseasonably cool temps for most of us well into May-June. Until the AMO turns cold (as the PDO has already done), I think any really cold winters will be very few and far between in the SE US. Just because we have high latitude blocking during winter, that is no guarantee the SE will benefit from that, but most likely the NE and upper Mid-Atlantic will as the SE ridge will form in response to the ridging in the west and blocking far to the north of us. There is a possibility our friends in Tx/Ark/ Western TN areas will have a decent winter as the jet will likely be very near or east of them for a good part of the winter. The analog years that met the criteria I use (low TS activity coupled with dry conditions in Fall in the SE) were 51-52, 52-53,60-61, 65-66, 73-74, 91-92, 94-95, 06-07



#42
Cold Rain

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Well, it figures the spring and summer would be cooler and wetter than normal, and this winter will end up warmer and drier than normal. I should have know better than to be optimistic. Instead of the cooler and wetter spring and summer pointing to a good winter for snow, I should have known that it would turn the opposite just in time for winter.


Brick, you can't start this until after 11/15. I'm sure there's a rule about it somewhere....

#43
GaWx

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Brick, you can't start this until after 11/15. I'm sure there's a rule about it somewhere....

 

 I think he's starting his WOTY campaign early. I always am impressed with his efforts and have stated in the past that political campaign managers should pay Brick for campaigning tips/ideas. That being said, I didn't think the WOTY campaign season even started til 12/1. ;)



#44
nchighcountrywx

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I think that the NE and Great Lakes areas will have a banner year with a colder and much snowier winter than normal this year due to some persistent high latitude blocking off Greenland and a predominate ridge in the Western US. Unfortunately, I see the SE ridge blocking most of the colder air and storm track for our part of the world with only occasional outbreaks of cold and storminess and thus would look for our winter to average slightly above normal (with the possibility of it being much warmer than normal) from Va., southward. I do think the storm track will run west of the Appalachians for the most part which should bring us some good rains but little wintry precipitation. We will likely have a 2-3 week period of  wintry weather possibilities in late Jan-Feb but not much else to crow about. I expect March to start out coolish but quickly turn very warm with some unfortunate outbreaks into April of severe weather in the South followed by unseasonably cool temps for most of us well into May-June. Until the AMO turns cold (as the PDO has already done), I think any really cold winters will be very few and far between in the SE US. Just because we have high latitude blocking during winter, that is no guarantee the SE will benefit from that, but most likely the NE and upper Mid-Atlantic will as the SE ridge will form in response to the ridging in the west and blocking far to the north of us. There is a possibility our friends in Tx/Ark/ Western TN areas will have a decent winter as the jet will likely be very near or east of them for a good part of the winter. The analog years that met the criteria I use (low TS activity coupled with dry conditions in Fall in the SE) were 51-52, 52-53,60-61, 65-66, 73-74, 91-92, 94-95, 06-07

 

 

 

I agree with this assessment except that it is difficult to say when actually the coldest 2 - 3 week period will occur.   If I could afford to be a betting man, I would put my money on this forecast.



#45
CAD_Wedge_NC

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Well, it figures the spring and summer would be cooler and wetter than normal, and this winter will end up warmer and drier than normal. I should have know better than to be optimistic. Instead of the cooler and wetter spring and summer pointing to a good winter for snow, I should have known that it would turn the opposite just in time for winter.

 

Didn't know we were cancelling winter before November got here. Wow, we really have gotten good at long term forecasting.



#46
DaculaWeather

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Didn't know we were cancelling winter before November got here. Wow, we really have gotten good at long term forecasting.

LOL!!!! I was sitting back reading these and was thinking the same thing! 



#47
snowstorm2011

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From what I'm reading it looks like this could be the 3rd straight winter with a trace or less of snow in Atlanta. An incredibly rare occurrence since that has only happened once before.

#48
nchighcountrywx

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Winter is coming.

For those with teen drivers, make sure they see this and respect the dangers of Black Ice.

 

 

 

 
 
 

http://stormhighway....ght_on_tape.php

 

Same respect and caution needed by all of us.

Slow down and save lives.



#49
Dr. Steve Brule

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Winter is coming.

For those with teen drivers, make sure they see this and respect the dangers of Black Ice.

 

 

 

 
 
 

http://stormhighway....ght_on_tape.php

 

Same respect and caution needed by all of us.

Slow down and save lives.

Well judging by the winter forecsts ive seen, those of us in the NC piedmont, S and E wont have to deal with this to much this year.



#50
griteater

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Don Sutherland has posted his early thoughts on the upcoming winter - http://www.americanw...13-14-thoughts/



#51
Met1985

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Don Sutherland has posted his early thoughts on the upcoming winter - http://www.americanw...13-14-thoughts/

Ya seems like we may see a repeat of 2011-2012 down here in the SE again. This could be the worst 3 year period for winter for the SE ever. I mean looking at al the data and the analogs the SE is toast if this all plays out.



#52
BIG FROSTY

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I knew for some reason I was dreading this mini Ice Age!



#53
POWERSTROKE

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I knew for some reason I was dreading this mini Ice Age!


+1

#54
tarheelwx

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Anybody read JB's winter forecast update from yesterday? I could just see the first sentence on weatherbell. He refers to some warming in 3.4.
Thanks
TW

#55
WxJordan

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Don Sutherland has posted his early thoughts on the upcoming winter - http://www.americanw...13-14-thoughts/

 

This is what I was starting to fear, including at least one professor at UNC-Asheville. It appears the odds for a warmer than average winter is increasing. Other factors will contribute and things are constantly changing, I do not like the trend at the moment. I still believe we have the best chance of seeing temperatures within one or two degrees of average.



#56
metalicwx366

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Anybody read JB's winter forecast update from yesterday? I could just see the first sentence on weatherbell. He refers to some warming in 3.4.
Thanks
TW

We are not going to see an El Nino develop this winter. Clearly we will be Neutral. Not sure what JB is seeing, but he is always going gangbusters on a snowy and cold winter.

#57
tarheelwx

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I don't subscribe so all I can see is the first sentence or so of his writeup. I sense that maybe he's thinking a warm neutral but no El Niño. Anybody subscribe that can elaborate?

#58
Cold Rain

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I don't subscribe so all I can see is the first sentence or so of his writeup. I sense that maybe he's thinking a warm neutral but no El Niño. Anybody subscribe that can elaborate?

.

In one of his recent Saturday Summaries went over his outlook. I believe I remember it being overall warmer and less snowy for our region.

#59
BIG FROSTY

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I don't subscribe so all I can see is the first sentence or so of his writeup. I sense that maybe he's thinking a warm neutral but no El Niño. Anybody subscribe that can elabora



#60
BIG FROSTY

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Slightly below normal temps, Normal precip!!!

 

But it could be a big winter for a lot of our area.... IMO, which is not much! :P

 

He's not swinging for the fence as some says he always does. I trust his just as much as anybody's out there!!!

 

In fact I think this could be one heck of a winter for the upper SE.  Just a little twitch here in there at the right time as I think there will be COLD air very close by to tap this winter and BOOM she goes, :sled:



#61
CAD_Wedge_NC

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I don't subscribe so all I can see is the first sentence or so of his writeup. I sense that maybe he's thinking a warm neutral but no El Niño. Anybody subscribe that can elabora

 

 

Well, that's better than a La Nina. I agree with the warm neutral signal. Maybe it will be enough to keep the southern branch active.



#62
mackerel_sky

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It's like has been said before, it doesn't matter if the overall winter is warmer than average, it only takes one cold shot and a perfectly timed gulf low! It could be the warmest winter ever, and if we had one , widespread 5-10 inch snow, that's all we would remember about winter 13/14. :)

#63
CAD_Wedge_NC

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It's like has been said before, it doesn't matter if the overall winter is warmer than average, it only takes one cold shot and a perfectly timed gulf low! It could be the warmest winter ever, and if we had one , widespread 5-10 inch snow, that's all we would remember about winter 13/14. :)

Yep, However, I don't think it will be the warmest winter ever. It may go down above average as a whole, but there will still be some cold periods. As you said, timing is everything when it comes to winter weather in the south.



#64
BIG FROSTY

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I'm kinda pumped about this winter after the last two we suffered through. :weight_lift:



#65
CAD_Wedge_NC

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Without any blocking... you can look for Ohio Valley cutters and CADs....... In my opinion, this winter could feature a major ice storm for someone in the damming zone.



#66
POWERSTROKE

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Well, that's better than a La Nina. I agree with the warm neutral signal. Maybe it will be enough to keep the southern branch active.


I haven't seen JB or anybody else say we will be in el nino pattern. So that info is wrong. Just sit back and wait and expect nothing and nobody will be disappointed.

#67
DaculaWeather

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Without any blocking... you can look for Ohio Valley cutters and CADs....... In my opinion, this winter could feature a major ice storm for someone in the damn zone.

Fixed that for you! :-) At least that what it was for us last year!



#68
calculus1

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I'm kinda pumped about this winter after the last two we suffered through. :weight_lift:

 

Me too, Frosty!  Hope springs eternal in early November.  Glad to see you back.  I assume the surgery went well?  Hopefully, you'll be fully recovered by the time the sleds are needed.  :sled:



#69
FallsLake

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There have been some cold winter forecast and some warm winter forecast. I too am optimistic about this winter. You can read all you want but really nobody knows exactly how short term variations will play out. Granted there has been more warm winter predictions lately, but my gut says this is going to be a good winter. We're actually getting close to the time of the year(early December) where many can get winter precip. We need to start taking notice of the indices (NAO, AO, PNA). Currently they are all "bad" for a cold pattern, but a natural swing could occur by early December.  



#70
WidreMann

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There have been some cold winter forecast and some warm winter forecast. I too am optimistic about this winter. You can read all you want but really nobody knows exactly how short term variations will play out. Granted there has been more warm winter predictions lately, but my gut says this is going to be a good winter. We're actually getting close to the time of the year(early December) where many can get winter precip. We need to start taking notice of the indices (NAO, AO, PNA). Currently they are all "bad" for a cold pattern, but a natural swing could occur by early December.  

I don't know how you can type this with a straight face. The warm winter predictions are based on some pretty solid data, especially the SAI and OPI stuff, which has had great predictive power, especially in recent years. The cold predictions are from weenies or law of averages or woolly worms. I haven't seen any that are anywhere near valid. Any prediction can be wrong, but given the global warming trends, and the recent year trends, I see nothing that indicates this will be anything other than a warm and dry winter. Of course, we could always get a cold spell that gives us a winter storm or two, and that's often all it takes to make it a "good" winter in the SE. Those can't easily be predicted. Aside from that, I think it'd be foolish to expect anything resembling a good winter down here. Just look at the fall pattern we've had for starters.






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