forkyfork Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That's actually really intense video for their location-- facing into the courtyard of a low-rise apartment complex. 7:05 am is right near peak conditions. new one http://instagram.com/p/gbow7rKWz7/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 PAGASA has had it much lower than JTWC through the whole thing so far I think. Wonder if the higher end estimates were too generous. I guess we'll see. Need lots more drones stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wonder if the higher end estimates were too generous. I guess we'll see. Need lots more drones stat. A little generous? Maybe. Not as generous as PAGASA would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wonder if the higher end estimates were too generous. I guess we'll see. Need lots more drones stat. It's difficult to judge based on the spot the video was taken. We don't know their exact location, the exact time this video was actually taken, and keep in mind that the city has a lot of wind blocks and the city as a whole was protected by the initial landfall from the peninsula Guiuan is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That would put it around 146 mph sustained at landfall by their account. They have been conservative throughout the day relative to the other estimates. Was really hoping that Josh would get directly in the eye to get at least a good pressure reading. We have a hard enough time in our own basin matching up recon data to actual landfall obs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 new one http://instagram.com/p/gbow7rKWz7/ that's intense!! and they're inside; i can only imagine how scary those howling winds sound if you're standing outside.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 A little generous? Maybe. Not as generous as PAGASA would like. I mean a little generous could still be huge but we've seen cases in the Atlantic where sat and actual obs are not too close. Jeff Masters declaring it the strongest storm ever to make landfall seems awful premature... then again TWC owns him now I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 They have been conservative throughout the day relative to the other estimates. Was really hoping that Josh would get directly in the eye to get at least a good pressure reading. We have a hard enough time in our own basin matching up recon data to actual landfall obs.... Do you know if PAGASA's sus wind values are 1-min, 2-min, 5-min, or 10-min? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It seems to me that they made it into the eyehttp://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013WP31/4KMIRIMG/2013WP31_4KMIRIMG_201311072313.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 10 minute from what I've seen, so 145 mph is actually extremely intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Do you know if PAGASA's sus wind values are 1-min, 2-min, 5-min, or 10-min? 10-min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I mean a little generous could still be huge but we've seen cases in the Atlantic where sat and actual obs are not too close. Jeff Masters declaring it the strongest storm ever to make landfall seems awful premature... then again TWC owns him now I guess. Yeah but even just looking at radar ref presentation...it's clear that this was as perfect of a structure you'll ever get near/at landfall...probably a "textbook" wind profile in it...and with the symmetry of the CDO and the cloud top temps...almost def not a cat 4 at max (and likely not now yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It was at least a strong cat 4 at landfall scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 10-min Well then that makes some a little more sense. I'm guessing their "gusts" are 1-min or 2-min then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This is stupid. It was a T8.0 30 minutes before landfall!!! I would doubt it's anything but top 5 in the last 100 years in the windspeed category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 What I will be interested in is what pressure they measure- I think the official 895mb is too high. I am hoping we could get some confirmation of a pressure in the neighborhood of Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Also too keep in mind...we may be forgetting this... that the NW side of the eyewall would not have had the intensity that the NE side of the eyewall will have. In fact, I imagine that if Josh, etc. are clipping the eye as we speak...the next side of the eyewall will feature the strongest winds yet (especially since those winds are coming off the bay and didn't have the hindering influence of the Guiuan peninsula) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah but even just looking at radar ref presentation...it's clear that this was as perfect of a structure you'll ever get near/at landfall...probably a "textbook" wind profile in it...and with the symmetry of the CDO and the cloud top temps...almost def not a cat 4 at max (and likely not now yet).True. It's in elite company one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Not good. https://twitter.com/producerxtina/status/398596722118516736 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Not good. https://twitter.com/producerxtina/status/398596722118516736 my god. higher quality image here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 legendary intercept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Assuming Josh gets through uninjured I am sure he will have to endure some horrific sights and will be involved trying to rescue people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow that looks like the tsunami damage in Japan. That is stunning and just a fraction of what's going to occur. Edit> can't tell if that's storm surge or not. A street maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Wow that looks like the tsunami damage in Japan. That is stunning and just a fraction of what's going to occur. Edit> can't tell if that's storm surge or not. A street maybe? it is surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 What is/was the lowest recorded pressure at landfall? 1935 Labor Day (~892mb)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 extreme surge evident in this new pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Video: http://statigr.am/p/584253456392003647_246715647 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 this shows just how quickly conditions deteriorated...no words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 extreme surge evident in this new pic Wow. How far inland is that? That looks like 10ft easy. Really not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It seems to me that they made it into the eyehttp://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013WP31/4KMIRIMG/2013WP31_4KMIRIMG_201311072313.GIF Nope. http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/haiyan13/Haiyan_8Nov13_CEB.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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