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Winter 2013-2014


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#1
Rainshadow

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Jack's Newfoundland Pool - POS NAO

Dr. Hart's recurving tropics - looks heading to neg NAO

Siberian Snow - TBD

Enso - neutral?

PDO - not as bad?

October Temps - TBD

QBO - Positive?

 

Mitch & I were initially contemplating a pos pna/pos nao winter, got a bunch of that '80s show analogs. Well we will see from here...



#2
am19psu

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Thanks for posting, Tony. Nice to see you around :)

#3
irishbri74

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Can't be as bad as the last 2 winter......

#4
tombo82685

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Might as well ad the cfs forecast as of right now t2m and see how good/bad it does.

 

usT2mSeaInd4.gif

usT2mSeaInd5.gif

in terms of enso i have seen everything from weak la nina to weak/mod el nino. My guess would be la nada for right now.

 

nino34Sea.gif



#5
am19psu

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Can't be as bad as the last 2 winter......

The tropical season says hi

#6
am19psu

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Might as well ad the cfs forecast as of right now t2m and see how good/bad it does.

FWIW, Euro monthlies are saying +EPO/-NAO Dec, ++PNA/-NAO Jan, -EPO/-PNA/-NAO Feb

#7
WxUSAF

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FWIW, Euro monthlies are saying +EPO/-NAO Dec, ++PNA/-NAO Jan, -EPO/-PNA/-NAO Feb

I'd take my chances with that.  



#8
tombo82685

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FWIW, Euro monthlies are saying +EPO/-NAO Dec, ++PNA/-NAO Jan, -EPO/-PNA/-NAO Feb

December would be a war temp wise. +epo  usually would probably translate to a -pna with a trof on west coast. The neg nao would argue for blockiness over us. Sounds like a lot of cutters redeveloping over us or maybe under. Jan and february would be solid in my eyes. Even though you have a -pna for february on the monthlies the -epo would definitely dislodge the cold from alaska area and aim it towards the US, combined with a -nao we would have the cold air, but storms tracks would be an issue sometimes.



#9
am19psu

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December would be a war temp wise. +epo  usually would probably translate to a -pna with a trof on west coast. The neg nao would argue for blockiness over us. Sounds like a lot of cutters redeveloping over us or maybe under. Jan and february would be solid in my eyes. Even though you have a -pna for february on the monthlies the -epo would definitely dislodge the cold from alaska area and aim it towards the US, combined with a -nao we would have the cold air, but storms tracks would be an issue sometimes.

Just looking at H5 anoms, January would be the jackpot from that forecast. February is an overrunning pattern. December is mostly blah looking to me.

#10
tombo82685

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Just looking at H5 anoms, January would be the jackpot from that forecast. February is an overrunning pattern. December is mostly blah looking to me.

yea december would be your famous "swfe" that you love.



#11
tombo82685

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Just a reminder for people in terms of how each enso state breaks down snowfall wise for philly from 1949- 2009-10

 

STRONG NINA - 6 WINTERS 15.9 inches

MODERATE NINA - 7 WINTERS 13.8 inches

WEAK NINA - 7 WINTERS 23.1 inches

ENSO NEUTRAL - 22 WINTERS 22 inches

WEAK NINO - 5 WINTERS 28.1 inches

MODERATE NINO - 8 WINTERS 24.3 inches

STRONG NINO - 6 WINTERS 27 inches



#12
snowlurker

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This is one of my favorite times of the year. We dream of what could be instead of grousing about how little snow we received, or in Adam's case, about how cold it is. :)

#13
tombo82685

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Jack's Newfoundland Pool - POS NAO

Dr. Hart's recurving tropics - looks heading to neg NAO

Siberian Snow - TBD

Enso - neutral?

PDO - not as bad?

October Temps - TBD

QBO - Positive?

 

Mitch & I were initially contemplating a pos pna/pos nao winter, got a bunch of that '80s show analogs. Well we will see from here...

What was the siberian snowfall like last year? I know one was above normal, not sure if it was north american snowfall or Siberian. 



#14
Quakertown needs snow

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Please no snow in October or early November, end.



#15
Porsche

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This post brought a smile to my face  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing: , you know winter is just around the corner now.  Any other thoughts on the Enso this coming winter?



#16
tombo82685

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This post brought a smile to my face  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing: , you know winter is just around the corner now.  Any other thoughts on the Enso this coming winter?

 

The models have continued to try and build a weak el nino since the summer, but it has yet to materialize. Right now i would lean towards neutral



#17
Mitchell Gaines

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First thoughts on my end. Several years in the 80's did pop out on my list. Most noteworthy is 80-81. Several years featured a nice ENSO, PDO and QBO match a few others matched two of three. Overall this process would suggest just below normal snow for the upcoming winter. I'll do monthly breakdowns of these years when i have a chance.  ENSO ( neutral, week nina) PDO ( negative) QBO ( positive with summer peak) 

 

62-63 20.5 inches of snow ( no QBO data) 

80-81 15.4 inches of snow 

85-86 16.4 inches of snow ( BAD PDO)  

90-91 14.6 inches of snow 

01-02 4.0 inches of snow ( BAD QBO)  :grinch:

 

Don't think we will have the modeled west based el-nino by both the CFS and ECMWF, expecting there more favorable solutions to become more average to blah. Hopefully not scary like 01-02. Maybe the Siberian snowcover impresses me. 

 

Some of this did match in well with Tony's idea on the teleconnection state. 



#18
Mitchell Gaines

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What was the siberian snowfall like last year? I know one was above normal, not sure if it was north american snowfall or Siberian. 

Siberian snowcover was above normal last Oct. That would have favored a - AO. 



#19
Mitchell Gaines

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Please no snow in October or early November, end.

Yup, Heavy fall snowfall means less of a winter. Snowfall records back that up. 



#20
Rainshadow

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Thanks for posting, Tony. Nice to see you around :)

 

Adam,

 

Yeah still around. Really dull convective season, that is unless you like building arks.



#21
Rainshadow

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Yup, Heavy fall snowfall means less of a winter. Snowfall records back that up. 

 

Unless.....it snows in October during el nino winters (72-73 aside).  Probably not the enso case this winter anyway.



#22
phlwx

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Just looking at H5 anoms, January would be the jackpot from that forecast. February is an overrunning pattern. December is mostly blah looking to me.

 

Shades of 2010-11 with that...



#23
Rainshadow

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Siberian snowcover was above normal last Oct. That would have favored a - AO. 

 

Ironically as far as the outcome was for us, the study was correct. The AO averaged negative, but the NAO didnt turn negative til the second half of the winter.  That separation deosnt happen often.



#24
tombo82685

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Ironically as far as the outcome was for us, the study was correct. The AO averaged negative, but the NAO didnt turn negative til the second half of the winter.  That separation deosnt happen often.

How well does above normal siberian snowcover correlate to our snowiest winters? I would like to see what the snowcover was like in the 09-10 and 10-11 seasons



#25
irishbri74

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How well does above normal siberian snowcover correlate to our snowiest winters? I would like to see what the snowcover was like in the 09-10 and 10-11 seasons

cursnow-10.gif?w=500&h=500


eurasia10.png
Kinda correlates to the hard 70's winters, dull 80s and late 90's, decent early 2000's, and the kick ass 2009-2011 winters. 



#26
Rainshadow

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How well does above normal siberian snowcover correlate to our snowiest winters? I would like to see what the snowcover was like in the 09-10 and 10-11 seasons

 

Tom,

 

I have it at work.  For our area, it works better with snow than with cold. (Who's complaining?)



#27
Rainshadow

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Tombo,

 

Snowfall is not a "normal" distribution. I forget if its just called skewed and Mark is no longer here to straighten me.  Anyway, last 45 winters since snow cover has been measured, 30 have had below the current average snowfall in Philadelphia and 15 above the current average.

 

If Siberian (Eurasian really as far as I can obtain) snow cover averages above normal for October, 11 of the 23 ensuing winters have been snowier than average in PHL. If Siberian snow cover averages below for October, its 4 of 22.

 

As for temperatures, using the '67-'12 median of 35.0F, if Siberian snow cover averages above normal for October, 12 of the 23 ensuing winters averaged below 35.0F in PHL. If Siberian snow cover averages below for October, its 10 of the 22 ensuing winters averaged below 35.0F.  Mark did some statistical testing on this before he retired and found no worthwhile correlation between snow cover and winter temperatures in our area.



#28
am19psu

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Follows a gamma distribution, Tony.

#29
NJwinter23

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The snow advancement last October was very impressive, I believe it ended up only 2nd to 2009 (using the daily data set back to 1997) and as far as I'm concerned it did its job in producing a -AO winter. It's the temperature part that didnt perform largely due to a poor Pacific Dec into much of Jan. 



#30
chubbs

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Cautiously optimistic for a better snow total this winter based on a waning La Nina influence. Does a wet summer help? I recall that 09 summer was wetter than normal.



#31
am19psu

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Cautiously optimistic for a better snow total this winter based on a waning La Nina influence. Does a wet summer help? I recall that 09 summer was wetter than normal.

The wet summer itself doesn't really mean anything... now the reasons for WHY we had a wet summer could matter, but not all wet summers materialize from the same forcing.

#32
Rainshadow

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Follows a gamma distribution, Tony.

 

Adam,

 

Thank-you. 



#33
Rainshadow

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The snow advancement last October was very impressive, I believe it ended up only 2nd to 2009 (using the daily data set back to 1997) and as far as I'm concerned it did its job in producing a -AO winter. It's the temperature part that didnt perform largely due to a poor Pacific Dec into much of Jan. 

 

The dearth of snow in the Delaware Valley was the more surprising outcome than the temps.



#34
JamieOber

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Cautiously optimistic for a better snow total this winter based on a waning La Nina influence. Does a wet summer help? I recall that 09 summer was wetter than normal.

 

 

The wet summer itself doesn't really mean anything... now the reasons for WHY we had a wet summer could matter, but not all wet summers materialize from the same forcing.

One thing, I think...could be wrong...but I think the summer of 09 was wet all the way through and didn't get drier in August like this summer did? 



#35
am19psu

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One thing, I think...could be wrong...but I think the summer of 09 was wet all the way through and didn't get drier in August like this summer did?

Yeah, but why? It's not the rain that falls, but how it got there. For example, this year, we've seen the subtropical highs displaced farther to the north than normal (note: not stronger than normal), which has made for a storm track farther north than normal with more moisture available than normal. If that type of pattern holds, what does it translate to in the cold season...?




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