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June 10-14 Severe/Flooding Wx - Obs, Radar, Warnings, Dmg. rpts


wxmeddler

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Can we get a pin?

 

Tornado Watch till 10 PM just issued

858   WWUS30 KWNS 101759  SAW3    SPC AWW 101759  WW 293 TORNADO DC DE MD NC NJ PA VA WV CW 101800Z - 110200Z  AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..  40SW AVC/SOUTH HILL VA/ - 30NW ILG/WILMINGTON DE/  ..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /27NNE RDU - 38SSW ETX/  HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.  MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.    LAT...LON 36258044 39977797 39977401 36257666    
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I am in that cell in PW, just west of Dale City and I can report an absolute torrent of rain falling the last 15-20 minutes with a few claps of thunder and little wind. The rain is strikingly heavy, flooding out the street, patio and backyard. I'd say at least an inch has fallen from this one cell/shower.

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Same tor probs as the TOR watch to the south of ours -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0293.html

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVE   ALONG THE NRN EXTENSIONS OF THE SAME THE CONFLUENCE AXES RESPONSIBLE   FOR STORMS NOW IN THE CAROLINAS. WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL   REMAIN MODEST...SFC HEATING AND FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD   YIELD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE   SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRENGTHENING MID-LVL FLOW /WITH SWLY 500 MB FLOW   AROUND 50 KTS/ AND ASCENT EXPECTED WITH THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT   OF TN VLY UPR TROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES MAY BE   ENHANCED NEAR DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IN SE PA/NE MD/DE.
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Initial storms are using a weak vort max / incoming LLJ for sustainment. The cell SW of DCA does have some weak rotation. I'm not sure if these will be able to do it but the environment over the Chesapeake region ahead of them seems supportive, despite a ton of crap convection.   

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yay another severe wx thread. We should split this thread in early Pm and a late pm thread

why you feel the need to troll svr stuff? no different than taking a long term disco thread in winter and making a thread for a specific storm. 

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All the crap convection makes me wonder about the potential.  It feels more like a heavy rain day than a tornado day.  (I haven't looked at the shear) only at the radar and my own back yard temperature and RH. 

 

No fishing today?

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All the crap convection makes me wonder about the potential.  It feels more like a heavy rain day than a tornado day.  (I haven't looked at the shear) only at the radar and my own back yard temperature and RH. 

 

mesoanalysis still showing ~2000+ CAPE behind the line so might be OK. i do think more often than not, not just here, a band like this during prime heating is not great if you want to hit potential.  the secondary line is pretty far west.. we prob want something else to pop in between. 

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Getting blitzed here. This is going to be a week to remember. More concerned about later in the week though.

 

Setting the line at 2 confirmed TORs in our region this evening. The sun that is going to break out soon is going to pave the way for what could be a dangerous evening in the mid-atlantic. 

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mesoanalysis still showing ~2000+ CAPE behind the line so might be OK. i do think more often than not, not just here, a band like this during prime heating is not great if you want to hit potential.  the secondary line is pretty far west.. we prob want something else to pop in between. 

 

1500 MLCAPE is nosing in as well... 0-1km shear is decent at 25 kts too

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mesoanalysis still showing ~2000+ CAPE behind the line so might be OK. i do think more often than not, not just here, a band like this during prime heating is not great if you want to hit potential.  the secondary line is pretty far west.. we prob want something else to pop in between. 

*weenie* Strongest sun angle and longest days of the year are right now *weenie*

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All the crap convection makes me wonder about the potential.  It feels more like a heavy rain day than a tornado day.  (I haven't looked at the shear) only at the radar and my own back yard temperature and RH. 

 

The shear isn't all that bad for this area, It's enough to put down some small tor's given a good thermodynamic environment. I think your right though about the possibility of too much crapvection in the sunshine sector. Water loading might/is going to be an issue too, PWAT's are 1.8-2.1"

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*weenie* Strongest sun angle and longest days of the year are right now *weenie*

 

i guess im cautiously optimistic but not sure what else to expect at this pt.. my thoughts already verified, so might be a good time to just watch. :P  still would rather have had different timing where we are now tho vis sat looks decent to the sw.  on the flip side maybe later is good then i can go to the Mall.. or get Mark to come pick me up.

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