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June 2013 Pattern and Discussion


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#36
Met1985

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Looking at the Euro the same thing that there really looks like no heat wave in sight for the SE. Looks like the active pattern we are in will stick around for the rest of the month with fronts coming through just about every week.



#37
Met1985

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Looks like the rest of the month will be warm will on and off again rain chances. By the looks of it if the heat works East it will hit North of us into the Northeast instead of blowing right into us. GFS and the Euro are different in the Long Range but I think th eEuro has done a better job of modeling the temps.



#38
DCMetroWinston

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JB says :

GFS finally catches what ECWMF has had for days, trough stopping surge of heat after a few days

#39
jburns

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JB says :

GFS finally catches what ECWMF has had for days, trough stopping surge of heat after a few days

 

 

I said no such thing.



#40
metalicwx366

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JB says : GFS finally catches what ECWMF has had for days, trough stopping surge of heat after a few days

JB didn't say anything about the GFS being right with Barry. He only points out things that the Euro gets correct. Euro had never shown any development at all. GFS was on it the entire time. I don't know why he acts like its the greatest model ever.

#41
nchighcountrywx

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@MarkVogan: CFSv2 keeps #Southeast US (#nola to #charlotte) cooler/wetter than norm nxt 4 wks. Wet spring having big impact this summer!

#42
griteater

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No sign of high heat in the extended range with big ridge developing out west.

 

GwxkfmN.gif



#43
DCMetroWinston

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Parts of Alaska have had more heat (90 degree) than most of North Carolina this year.



#44
jburns

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Parts of Alaska have had more heat (90 degree) than most of North Carolina this year.

 

It's an exchange program.  Next winter we get all their snow.



#45
Queencitywx

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Another wonderful summer day. If only summer was like this all the time.

#46
buckeyefan1

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It's an exchange program.  Next winter we get all their snow.

That would be nice :hug:

 

Another wonderful summer day. If only summer was like this all the time.

I will agree with this :D This spring and the start of summer have been nothing short of fantastic  :wub:



#47
Met1985

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Its about a week out but that is a strong trough for this time of the year on the Euro. Boy has this weather been perfect.



#48
fritschy

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It's an exchange program.  Next winter we get all their snow.

I hope your right, after the last two winters I need a good winter fix, I'm having withdrawals. :cry:



#49
Met1985

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Todays Euro run is even more impressive with the ridge in the West and trough in the East. Would be a great way to end June and start July. Would be below normal temps for most. Wow what a difference a year makes.



#50
Marion_NC_WX

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Just got home today from spending 2 weeks down on The Grand Strand...and with the exception of June 12th and 13th, it was almost cool at times down at the beach. Low to mid 80's at most, some days the humidity was up, some days it was down big time. It's usually miserable when I go on vacation, this time around it was excellent.



#51
nchighcountrywx

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CFSV2 Temperature Long Range Through December

For what it's worth, shows current below average trend through October and peaking in October and then hint of an above average trend trying to develop in December.....arghhhhh

http://www.cpc.ncep....usT2me3Mon.html

#52
mackerel_sky

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After last winter with those models very poor performance , I wouldn't put much stock into the temp outlook. They constantly showed cold and well below temps for weeks on end , only to never verify!

#53
jburns

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After last winter with those models very poor performance , I wouldn't put much stock into the temp outlook. They constantly showed cold and well below temps for weeks on end , only to never verify!

 

There are correlations for that.

 

CFSV2 Temperature Long Range Above Average Winter Months = 100% Accuracy

CFSV2 Temperature Long Range Below Average Winter Months = HA HA HA HA HA HA



#54
DCMetroWinston

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After last winter with those models very poor performance , I wouldn't put much stock into the temp outlook. They constantly showed cold and well below temps for weeks on end , only to never verify!

They verified. In March, April, and May.



#55
WidreMann

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After last winter with those models very poor performance , I wouldn't put much stock into the temp outlook. They constantly showed cold and well below temps for weeks on end , only to never verify!

Models aren't people.



#56
MariettaWx

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They verified. In March, April, and May.


But did they verify 3-6 months before march, April, and may? Doubtful. Those maps are pretty much worthless.

#57
metalicwx366

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We surely did get that historic cold at the end of January with the SSW event. I'll never forget that.

#58
cloudcrash619

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Yeah the temperature fell to a frigid 26 degrees here during that arctic outbreak. Some say we hadn't got that cold in weeks.



#59
jburns

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Models aren't people.

Only because the SCOTUS hasn't ruled on that as of yet.



#60
Met1985

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Wow Euro really looks amped! I do not think I have seen suck a pattern for this time of the year in a long time. Especially a huge trough pushing the heat ridge back to the West. Will be something to watch closely in the coming weeks. No heat ridge with that bad boy.



#61
Marion_NC_WX

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Wow Euro really looks amped! I do not think I have seen suck a pattern for this time of the year in a long time. Especially a huge trough pushing the heat ridge back to the West. Will be something to watch closely in the coming weeks. No heat ridge with that bad boy.

 

 

One has to wonder if the heat ridge can amp up itself as much as the Euro predicts, could we get that trough to attempt to cut off at the base? I personally don't think the upper air pattern will amplify as much as the Euro wants it to.

 

Also will be interesting to see in future runs where the trough axis will set up...IMO Monday's 12z Euro run had the look of something that could easily keep parts of the Eastern US, especially those East of the Apps, in an active precip pattern. The Bermuda High is not going to be easy to break down, infact I think the Bermuda High's strength is going to be a big story this entire summer. And that's going to play a huge role later on once the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season arrives.

 

I know one of our favorite forecasters here in the southeast has been talking about that on his site in recent days.



#62
Met1985

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One has to wonder if the heat ridge can amp up itself as much as the Euro predicts, could we get that trough to attempt to cut off at the base? I personally don't think the upper air pattern will amplify as much as the Euro wants it to.

 

Also will be interesting to see in future runs where the trough axis will set up...IMO Monday's 12z Euro run had the look of something that could easily keep parts of the Eastern US, especially those East of the Apps, in an active precip pattern. The Bermuda High is not going to be easy to break down, infact I think the Bermuda High's strength is going to be a big story this entire summer. And that's going to play a huge role later on once the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season arrives.

 

I know one of our favorite forecasters here in the southeast has been talking about that on his site in recent days.

Ya I have been reading a lot of his forecasts. Should be interesting. Not sure if it will be that amped either but interesting enough that the trough in the East will play a big role in our weather.



#63
nrgjeff

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Even if the upper pattern does not get that meridonal, I'm confident the Southeast stays showery with at/cooler than normal high temps. Lows may be warm though if that trough fails. Euro shows Southeast Canada under big positive height anomalies by days 10-14. The weaker relative to normal heights in the Southeast US opens the door to showers off a healthy easterly or at least southeasterly flow. Might be humid but not too hot. Again if the trough really digs as forecast then humidity would drop off too. Enjoy!



#64
GaWx

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The last few runs of Goofy suggest no clearcut threat of intense heat through the end of June fwiw. Whereas we still have a long way to go, this is at least gives me reason for optimism that we won't see any sig. heat by 6/30. If so, the much wetter than normal soils in Atlanta as well as nearby areas in the SE US would seemingly get some of the credit. KATL not exceeding 91 on two days when the highest 850 hit ~+20 C while skies were mostly sunny was good evidence of that. With much drier soils, those highs likely would have been 95+.
Since 1950, when the highest at KATL didn't exceed 91 by 6/30, the highest during 7/1+ never exceeded 96!

 

 Well, here we are on 6/25 and KATL still hasn't exceeded the statistically crucial 91 (thanks to Tony's moles and well above avg. soil moisture). Why do I say 91 is sig.?

 

 There has not been a single year since 1908 that KATL has exceeded 96 after June 30 when the highest through 6/30 was 91 or lower. That covers an impressive 16 years. Now, going back to 1879, only 2 of 26 years (8%)(1900 and 1907) without a 92+ by 6/30 had 97+ after 6/30. OTOH, 50 of 108 years (46%) with a 92+ by 6/30 had 97+ after 6/30.

 

 About one in five years has no 92+ by 6/30 at KATL.

 

 Looking at MeteoStar, today's12Z Goofy has 89, 90, and 93 for the next three days with max. 850's near +20 C. So, I'm requesting from Tony if the moles could be used one more time just to make sure it doesn't hit 92 at KATL. I think the odds are pretty good, especially considering that MeteoStar had 93's/similar +20 C highest 850 for both 6/12 and 6/13 with much less cloud cover and there has been a whopping 3.55" of rainfall at KATL since that 91 of 6/13! The highs those days were only 91. If the moles could handle 6/12 and 6/13, they should have no problem with 6/26-28. Tony, tell the moles that if they volunteer to provide their anti-92 services this one more period, they'll get the extra royal treatment at the beach.






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